WTM // White Mountains Insurance Group Ltd.

DES <GO> NYSE CIK 0000776867 ↗

Financials • Property-Casualty Insurers

$2,245.46 ▲ +36.88 (+1.67%)

MKT CAP: $5.36B • VOL: 24.8K

52W L $1,864 52W H $2,333

ALTMAN Z

2.00 GREY

PIOTROSKI

8 / 9

WTM // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE

PRIOR: RQD 64/100 [C] (-1 PT) • UNCHANGED AS OF 2026-11-01

ROARABLE C

RQD CONFIDENCE

63 / 100 -1D

5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS

E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+

Roarable Hold — Fair / Balanced Risk-Reward

01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL

Forensic Fundamentals

[LOCKED] FLAGGED

UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL

02 OPRA GEX + SEC 13F

Whale & Options Flow

10 / 20

NEUTRAL

NET GEX +0% • CALL SWEEP 52% • P/C 0.70

03 SEC FORM 4 (90D)

Insider Conviction

[LOCKED] FLAGGED

UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL

04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX

Macro Regime Fit

16 / 20

STRONG

TAILWIND • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00

05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT

Forensic 10-K Risk

16 / 20

STRONG

20 BASE - 4 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE

ALERT

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SIG <GO> CROSS-FEED TRIANGULATION // PROPRIETARY ANOMALY ENGINE (1 ACTIVE ON WTM)

STAGE 2 DETERMINISTIC Z-SCORE + STAGE 3 GEEK DESK BRIEF ALL MARKET ANOMALIES <SIG>

▼ BEARISH // F-RATED EARNINGS MIRAGE // ACCRUAL WATCHSIFTER 02 // ACCRUAL & RECEIVABLES FORENSICS

SEVERITY: 94/100 Z-SCORE: +3.64σ

WTM Accounting Gap: Net Income (+220%) Outpaced OCF (-6.2%) With +-42.8% Working-Capital Build

CASH CONVERSION GAP

+226.2% (NI vs OCF)

RECEIVABLES / WC BLOAT

-42.8% VS REV

60D C-SUITE FORM 4 SALES

0 OPEN-MKT DUMPS

[GEEK DESK FORENSIC NOTE // SEC XBRL × FORM 4 CROSS-CHECK]

SEC EDGAR XBRL CompanyFacts10-K/10-Q Working Capital ScheduleSEC Form 4 Executive Sales

SEC EDGAR XBRL triangulation on White Mountains Insurance Group Ltd. (WTM) exposes a +226.2% Cash Conversion Gap as YoY Net Income growth (+220.0%) diverged from Operating Cash Flow growth (-6.2%). Non-cash current assets and receivables expanded -42.8% relative to top-line revenue growth. Monitor upcoming 10-Q cash realization closely for accrual mean-reversion.

WTM // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +1.70%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-10-30O $2,256.4H $2,274.7L $2,241.2C $2,270.0VOL 20.3K

SUP: $1,957.1SMA50: $2,102.3SMA200: $2,136.8

WTM // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE

HIGH-CONVICTION LONG CONVICTION: 83/100

BEAR 0

100 BULL

White Mountains Insurance Group Ltd. (WTM) exhibits 95.9% gross margins and 16.4% return on invested capital within Financials (Property-Casualty Insurers), balanced against a 4.3x enterprise multiple and 7.1% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)

01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 95.9% gross profitability converts into 36.1% operating margin and 16.4% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 16.4% // GM: 95.9%

02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +66.8% paired with 7.14% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +66.8% // FCF YLD: 7.14%

03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 2.00 and Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 2.00 // F-SCORE: 8/9

▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)

01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 4.8x trailing P/E (4.2x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 4.8x // EV/EBITDA: 4.3x

02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±7.1% implied move with a 0.70 put/call ratio around $2,201.00 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±7.1% // P/C: 0.70

03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Property-Casualty Insurers require continuous execution to defend 29.6% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 29.6% // D/E: 0.47x

KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 4.2x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.

MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.06).

FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>

FILER	SIDE	$ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>

UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>

STRIKE / EXP	TYPE	PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>

KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>

TRAILING P/E 4.8x

FORWARD P/E 4.2x

EV / EBITDA 4.3x

FCF YIELD 7.14%

GROSS MARGIN 95.9%

OPERATING MARGIN 36.1%

NET MARGIN 29.6%

ROIC % 16.4%

REV GROWTH YOY +66.8%

DILUTED EPS TTM $463.56

DEBT / EQUITY 0.47x

DIVIDEND YIELD 0.05%

RSI-14 MOMENTUM 76.3

5Y EQUITY BETA 1.06

FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>

MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.

FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // WTMPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE

01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO

02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE

HEADLINE STRESS SCORE

75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE

PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE

DFII10 // -0.61 r

Latest: 2.08%

EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE

-8.50%

Implied Px: $2,054.67

EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE

-$4,248

On $50,000 Notional

[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for WTM & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

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