SERIES: BAMLH0A0HYM2 (3.26)
VIXCLS (17.2)
INDPRO (103.9506)
UMCSENT (48.1)
CPIAUCSL (336.298)
CPILFESL (338.896)
DCOILWTICO (103.37)
MORTGAGE30US (7.24)
PCEPI (132.257)
ICSA (194000)
PAYEMS (159044)
UNRATE (4.2)
M2SL (23413.9)
NETLIQ (5745.73)
RRPONTSYD (4.375)
WALCL (6745635)
WTREGEN (999727)
DFII10 (2.63)
DGS10 (4.98)
DGS2 (4.61)
FEDFUNDS (3.75)
SOFR (3.94)
T10Y2Y (0.38)
FRED // VIXCLS
CBOE Volatility Index (VIX)
CREDIT Daily
OBSERVATION DATE: 2026-10-29 • UNIT: Index
LATEST OBSERVATION
17.2 Index
PRIOR / PERIOD Δ
16.91 (+ 0.29)
YOY CHANGE
+ 1.65 Index
VIXCLS // CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) (Index)1Y: +0.78 (+4.8%)
2026-10-29OBSERVATION: 17.20 (Index)
11 S&P 500 GICS SECTOR PEARSON CORRELATION MATRIX VS. VIXCLS SORTED TAILWIND (+r) ──► HEADWIND (-r)
| ETF | GICS SECTOR | PEARSON r | CORRELATION BAR (-1 TO +1) | R² | BETA / REGIME TRANSMISSION |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLC | Communication Services | -0.07 r | | 0% | [-0.25% per +5 VIX pts] Low-beta regime neutral across 5Y VIXCLS cycle (261W) |
| XLE | Energy | -0.07 r | | 1% | [-0.38% per +5 VIX pts] Low-beta regime neutral across 5Y VIXCLS cycle (261W) |
| XLV | Health Care | -0.08 r | | 1% | [-0.24% per +5 VIX pts] Defensive/rate-sensitive drag during VIXCLS upswings |
| XLK | Technology | -0.08 r | | 1% | [-0.39% per +5 VIX pts] Defensive/rate-sensitive drag during VIXCLS upswings |
| XLI | Industrials | -0.08 r | | 1% | [-0.27% per +5 VIX pts] Defensive/rate-sensitive drag during VIXCLS upswings |
| XLP | Consumer Staples | -0.09 r | | 1% | [-0.21% per +5 VIX pts] Defensive/rate-sensitive drag during VIXCLS upswings |
| XLB | Materials | -0.11 r | | 1% | [-0.38% per +5 VIX pts] Defensive/rate-sensitive drag during VIXCLS upswings |
| XLY | Consumer Discretionary | -0.13 r | | 2% | [-0.55% per +5 VIX pts] Defensive/rate-sensitive drag during VIXCLS upswings |
| XLF | Financials | -0.13 r | | 2% | [-0.46% per +5 VIX pts] Defensive/rate-sensitive drag during VIXCLS upswings |
| XLU | Utilities | -0.14 r | | 2% | [-0.45% per +5 VIX pts] Defensive/rate-sensitive drag during VIXCLS upswings |
| XLRE | Real Estate | -0.15 r | | 2% | [-0.54% per +5 VIX pts] Defensive/rate-sensitive drag during VIXCLS upswings |
AI MACRO REGIME IMPACT BRIEF NEUTRAL
VIX EDGES UP TO 17.2 INDEX: VOLATILITY RISK PREMIUM NORMALIZING WITHIN MID-RANGE AS SYSTEMIC STRESS REMAINS CONTAINED
The VIX ticked up +0.290 Index sequentially to 17.2 Index (+1.65 YoY), remaining contained within its 52-observation corridor of 14.21 to 19.99 Index. While all 11 GICS sectors exhibit negative Pearson correlations to implied volatility expansions, the sub-20 print signals an orderly equity risk premium environment rather than an acute liquidity crunch or balance sheet deleveraging. Elevated chop continues to disproportionately penalize high-multiple cyclical and debt-dependent duration assets, while mega-cap cash generators and commodity hedges preserve relative capital efficiency.
▲ REGIME TAILWIND SECTORS
XLC // Communication Services
Demonstrates the highest relative resilience across the equity complex with a Pearson r of -0.07 and beta sensitivity of -0.25% per +5 VIX pts, supported by dominant mega-cap balance sheet liquidity and resilient digital advertising margins that insulate cash flows from vol spikes.
XLE // Energy
Displays minimal empirical sensitivity to vol expansions (Pearson r of -0.07, R²=0.01), as underlying commodity fundamentals, high free cash flow conversion, and aggressive capital return programs provide an unhedged operational offset to broad equity volatility.
XLV // Health Care
Anchored by a resilient Pearson r of -0.08 and the lowest beta sensitivity in the complex at -0.24% per +5 VIX pts, benefiting from inelastic pricing power, defensive pharmaceutical revenue visibility, and robust insulation against broader equity discount-rate turbulence.
▼ REGIME HEADWIND SECTORS
XLRE // Real Estate
Faces the steepest drag across the matrix with Pearson r of -0.15 and a heavy beta sensitivity of -0.54% per +5 VIX pts, where implied volatility expansions trigger wider commercial credit spreads and elevated debt refinancing costs across leveraged REIT structures.
XLU // Utilities
Sits among the most vulnerable to volatility creep with Pearson r of -0.14 and -0.45% sensitivity per +5 VIX pts, as rising equity risk premia compress dividend-yield spreads relative to cash rates while heavy capex financing requirements face widening corporate bond spreads.
XLY // Consumer Discretionary
Directly burdened by Pearson r of -0.13 and the highest downside beta sensitivity across all sectors at -0.55% per +5 VIX pts, reflecting immediate multiple compression on non-essential consumption exposure and consumer balance sheet sensitivity amid elevated market uncertainty.
HISTORICAL ANALOG // Mid-2015 Pre-Liftoff Volatility Chop (VIX 16-19 Range), where intermittent volatility spikes accompanied by tightening liquidity conditions compressed debt-sensitive real estate (XLRE) and high-beta discretionary multiples while quality balance sheets and low-beta defensives outperformed.
EQUITIES MOST SENSITIVE TO VIXCLS STOCK BETA
| TICKER | LAST | % CHG | CORR (r) |
|---|---|---|---|
| GS Financials | $894.55 | -3.58% | -0.60 |
| JPM Financials | $337.04 | -1.90% | -0.55 |
| AMZN Consumer Discretionary | $240.35 | -1.41% | -0.52 |
| AVGO Technology | $326.08 | -5.48% | -0.51 |
| AAPL Technology | $344.63 | -1.23% | -0.48 |
| NVDA Technology | $204.64 | -4.22% | -0.47 |
| NFLX Communication Services | $62.08 | +0.05% | -0.43 |
| GOOGL Communication Services | $279.84 | -1.40% | -0.43 |
| BRK-B Financials | $542.49 | +0.10% | -0.42 |
| MSFT Technology | $521.91 | -1.55% | -0.42 |