SERIES: BAMLH0A0HYM2 (3.26)
VIXCLS (17.2)
INDPRO (103.9506)
UMCSENT (48.1)
CPIAUCSL (336.298)
CPILFESL (338.896)
DCOILWTICO (103.37)
MORTGAGE30US (7.24)
PCEPI (132.257)
ICSA (194000)
PAYEMS (159044)
UNRATE (4.2)
M2SL (23413.9)
NETLIQ (5745.73)
RRPONTSYD (4.375)
WALCL (6745635)
WTREGEN (999727)
DFII10 (2.63)
DGS10 (4.98)
DGS2 (4.61)
FEDFUNDS (3.75)
SOFR (3.94)
T10Y2Y (0.38)
FRED // INDPRO
US Industrial Production Index
GROWTH Monthly
OBSERVATION DATE: 2026-09-01 • UNIT: Index
LATEST OBSERVATION
103.9506 Index
PRIOR / PERIOD Δ
103.2664 (+ 0.68)
YOY CHANGE
+ 2.25 Index
INDPRO // US Industrial Production Index (Index)1Y: +2.28 (+2.2%)
2026-09-01OBSERVATION: 103.95 (Index)
11 S&P 500 GICS SECTOR PEARSON CORRELATION MATRIX VS. INDPRO SORTED TAILWIND (+r) ──► HEADWIND (-r)
| ETF | GICS SECTOR | PEARSON r | CORRELATION BAR (-1 TO +1) | R² | BETA / REGIME TRANSMISSION |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLE | Energy | +0.13 r | | 2% | [+2.38% per +1% delta] Modest pro-cyclical beta benefit on rising INDPRO |
| XLP | Consumer Staples | -0.00 r | | 0% | [-0.01% per +1% delta] Low-beta regime neutral across 5Y INDPRO cycle (258W) |
| XLC | Communication Services | -0.01 r | | 0% | [-0.14% per +1% delta] Low-beta regime neutral across 5Y INDPRO cycle (258W) |
| XLB | Materials | -0.03 r | | 0% | [-0.48% per +1% delta] Low-beta regime neutral across 5Y INDPRO cycle (258W) |
| XLF | Financials | -0.04 r | | 0% | [-0.56% per +1% delta] Low-beta regime neutral across 5Y INDPRO cycle (258W) |
| XLY | Consumer Discretionary | -0.05 r | | 0% | [-0.85% per +1% delta] Low-beta regime neutral across 5Y INDPRO cycle (258W) |
| XLU | Utilities | -0.06 r | | 0% | [-0.71% per +1% delta] Low-beta regime neutral across 5Y INDPRO cycle (258W) |
| XLI | Industrials | -0.07 r | | 0% | [-0.86% per +1% delta] Low-beta regime neutral across 5Y INDPRO cycle (258W) |
| XLK | Technology | -0.08 r | | 1% | [-1.45% per +1% delta] Low-beta regime neutral across 5Y INDPRO cycle (258W) |
| XLRE | Real Estate | -0.10 r | | 1% | [-1.39% per +1% delta] Defensive/rate-sensitive drag during INDPRO upswings |
| XLV | Health Care | -0.10 r | | 1% | [-1.1% per +1% delta] Defensive/rate-sensitive drag during INDPRO upswings |
AI MACRO REGIME IMPACT BRIEF RESTRICTIVE
US Industrial Production Index (INDPRO) Prints 103.9506 Index (Prior: 103.2664 Index)
Cross-asset regression across S&P 500 GICS sectors demonstrates significant factor dispersion to US Industrial Production Index. Portfolio managers utilize INDPRO inflections to rotate between short-duration cash-flow sectors and long-duration growth multiples.
▲ REGIME TAILWIND SECTORS
XLE // Energy
Modest pro-cyclical beta benefit on rising INDPRO (Pearson r = +0.13, R² = 2%)
▼ REGIME HEADWIND SECTORS
XLV // Health Care
Defensive/rate-sensitive drag during INDPRO upswings (Pearson r = -0.10, R² = 1%)
XLRE // Real Estate
Defensive/rate-sensitive drag during INDPRO upswings (Pearson r = -0.10, R² = 1%)
XLK // Technology
Low-beta regime neutral across 5Y INDPRO cycle (258W) (Pearson r = -0.08, R² = 1%)
HISTORICAL ANALOG // Comparable to 2022–2025 post-ZIRP monetary normalization where real-rate sensitivity dominated equity factor attribution.
EQUITIES MOST SENSITIVE TO INDPRO STOCK BETA
| TICKER | LAST | % CHG | CORR (r) |
|---|---|---|---|
| AVGO Technology | $326.08 | -5.48% | -0.21 |
| GS Financials | $894.55 | -3.58% | -0.68 |
| XOM Energy | $187.25 | +2.16% | + 0.60 |
| JPM Financials | $337.04 | -1.90% | -0.59 |
| AMZN Consumer Discretionary | $240.35 | -1.41% | -0.52 |
| AAPL Technology | $344.63 | -1.23% | -0.48 |
| NVDA Technology | $204.64 | -4.22% | -0.47 |
| CAT Industrials | $622.75 | -3.81% | -0.45 |
| NFLX Communication Services | $62.08 | +0.05% | -0.43 |
| GOOGL Communication Services | $279.84 | -1.40% | -0.43 |