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CPIAUCSL (336.298)
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DCOILWTICO (103.37)
MORTGAGE30US (7.24)
PCEPI (132.257)
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FRED // PCEPI
Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
INFLATION Monthly
OBSERVATION DATE: 2026-09-01 • UNIT: Index
LATEST OBSERVATION
132.257 Index
PRIOR / PERIOD Δ
131.611 (+ 0.65)
YOY CHANGE
+ 3.65 Index
PCEPI // Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index (Index)1Y: +4.66 (+3.6%)
2026-09-01OBSERVATION: 132.26 (Index)
11 S&P 500 GICS SECTOR PEARSON CORRELATION MATRIX VS. PCEPI SORTED TAILWIND (+r) ──► HEADWIND (-r)
| ETF | GICS SECTOR | PEARSON r | CORRELATION BAR (-1 TO +1) | R² | BETA / REGIME TRANSMISSION |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLE | Energy | +0.30 r | | 9% | [+12.86% per +1% delta] Primary cyclical tailwind when PCEPI expands (r=0.30) |
| XLB | Materials | -0.11 r | | 1% | [-3.44% per +1% delta] Defensive/rate-sensitive drag during PCEPI upswings |
| XLU | Utilities | -0.14 r | | 2% | [-4.13% per +1% delta] Defensive/rate-sensitive drag during PCEPI upswings |
| XLI | Industrials | -0.21 r | | 4% | [-6.16% per +1% delta] Defensive/rate-sensitive drag during PCEPI upswings |
| XLP | Consumer Staples | -0.22 r | | 5% | [-5.07% per +1% delta] Defensive/rate-sensitive drag during PCEPI upswings |
| XLRE | Real Estate | -0.24 r | | 6% | [-7.74% per +1% delta] Defensive/rate-sensitive drag during PCEPI upswings |
| XLV | Health Care | -0.25 r | | 6% | [-5.95% per +1% delta] Defensive/rate-sensitive drag during PCEPI upswings |
| XLC | Communication Services | -0.25 r | | 6% | [-8.05% per +1% delta] Defensive/rate-sensitive drag during PCEPI upswings |
| XLK | Technology | -0.26 r | | 7% | [-10.4% per +1% delta] Defensive/rate-sensitive drag during PCEPI upswings |
| XLF | Financials | -0.27 r | | 7% | [-7.99% per +1% delta] Defensive/rate-sensitive drag during PCEPI upswings |
| XLY | Consumer Discretionary | -0.31 r | | 10% | [-11.56% per +1% delta] Acute duration/spread compression headwind as PCEPI rises (r=-0.31) |
AI MACRO REGIME IMPACT BRIEF RESTRICTIVE
Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index (PCEPI) Prints 132.257 Index (Prior: 131.611 Index)
Cross-asset regression across S&P 500 GICS sectors demonstrates significant factor dispersion to Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index. Portfolio managers utilize PCEPI inflections to rotate between short-duration cash-flow sectors and long-duration growth multiples.
▲ REGIME TAILWIND SECTORS
XLE // Energy
Primary cyclical tailwind when PCEPI expands (r=0.30) (Pearson r = +0.30, R² = 9%)
▼ REGIME HEADWIND SECTORS
XLY // Consumer Discretionary
Acute duration/spread compression headwind as PCEPI rises (r=-0.31) (Pearson r = -0.31, R² = 10%)
XLF // Financials
Defensive/rate-sensitive drag during PCEPI upswings (Pearson r = -0.27, R² = 7%)
XLK // Technology
Defensive/rate-sensitive drag during PCEPI upswings (Pearson r = -0.26, R² = 7%)
HISTORICAL ANALOG // Comparable to 2022–2025 post-ZIRP monetary normalization where real-rate sensitivity dominated equity factor attribution.
EQUITIES MOST SENSITIVE TO PCEPI STOCK BETA
| TICKER | LAST | % CHG | CORR (r) |
|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL Technology | $344.63 | -1.23% | -0.32 |
| PLTR Technology | $184.11 | -6.27% | -0.28 |
| XOM Energy | $187.25 | +2.16% | + 0.27 |
| GS Financials | $894.55 | -3.58% | -0.25 |
| TSLA Consumer Discretionary | $399.81 | -0.87% | -0.24 |
| MSFT Technology | $521.91 | -1.55% | -0.24 |
| NFLX Communication Services | $62.08 | +0.05% | -0.23 |
| WMT Consumer Staples | $123.51 | +1.86% | -0.23 |
| JPM Financials | $337.04 | -1.90% | -0.22 |
| COIN Financials | $143.54 | -10.62% | -0.22 |