SERIES: BAMLH0A0HYM2 (3.26)
VIXCLS (17.2)
INDPRO (103.9506)
UMCSENT (48.1)
CPIAUCSL (336.298)
CPILFESL (338.896)
DCOILWTICO (103.37)
MORTGAGE30US (7.24)
PCEPI (132.257)
ICSA (194000)
PAYEMS (159044)
UNRATE (4.2)
M2SL (23413.9)
NETLIQ (5745.73)
RRPONTSYD (4.375)
WALCL (6745635)
WTREGEN (999727)
DFII10 (2.63)
DGS10 (4.98)
DGS2 (4.61)
FEDFUNDS (3.75)
SOFR (3.94)
T10Y2Y (0.38)
FRED // DGS10
10-Year US Treasury Constant Maturity Yield
YIELDS Daily
OBSERVATION DATE: 2026-10-29 • UNIT: %
LATEST OBSERVATION
4.98 %
PRIOR / PERIOD Δ
5.05 ( -0.07)
YOY CHANGE
+ 0.90 %
DGS10 // 10-Year US Treasury Constant Maturity Yield (%)1Y: +0.99 (+24.8%)
2026-10-29OBSERVATION: 4.98% (%)
11 S&P 500 GICS SECTOR PEARSON CORRELATION MATRIX VS. DGS10 SORTED TAILWIND (+r) ──► HEADWIND (-r)
| ETF | GICS SECTOR | PEARSON r | CORRELATION BAR (-1 TO +1) | R² | BETA / REGIME TRANSMISSION |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLE | Energy | +0.01 r | | 0% | [+0.05% per +25 bps] Low-beta regime neutral across 5Y DGS10 cycle (261W) |
| XLF | Financials | -0.05 r | | 0% | [-0.25% per +25 bps] Low-beta regime neutral across 5Y DGS10 cycle (261W) |
| XLY | Consumer Discretionary | -0.08 r | | 1% | [-0.48% per +25 bps] Low-beta regime neutral across 5Y DGS10 cycle (261W) |
| XLB | Materials | -0.10 r | | 1% | [-0.51% per +25 bps] Defensive/rate-sensitive drag during DGS10 upswings |
| XLP | Consumer Staples | -0.11 r | | 1% | [-0.41% per +25 bps] Defensive/rate-sensitive drag during DGS10 upswings |
| XLI | Industrials | -0.12 r | | 1% | [-0.54% per +25 bps] Defensive/rate-sensitive drag during DGS10 upswings |
| XLK | Technology | -0.13 r | | 2% | [-0.86% per +25 bps] Defensive/rate-sensitive drag during DGS10 upswings |
| XLRE | Real Estate | -0.15 r | | 2% | [-0.77% per +25 bps] Defensive/rate-sensitive drag during DGS10 upswings |
| XLC | Communication Services | -0.18 r | | 3% | [-0.96% per +25 bps] Defensive/rate-sensitive drag during DGS10 upswings |
| XLU | Utilities | -0.20 r | | 4% | [-0.92% per +25 bps] Defensive/rate-sensitive drag during DGS10 upswings |
| XLV | Health Care | -0.20 r | | 4% | [-0.84% per +25 bps] Defensive/rate-sensitive drag during DGS10 upswings |
AI MACRO REGIME IMPACT BRIEF RESTRICTIVE
DGS10 PRINTS AT 4.98%: REAL DURATION DRAG PERSISTS DESPITE -7 BPS SEQUENTIAL EASING
The 10-Year Treasury yield pulled back sequentially by -0.070% to 4.98% (down from 5.05%), yet remains elevated near its 52-week peak of 5.31% with a persistent +0.90% YoY expansion. At 4.98%, terminal cost of capital continues to enforce widespread multiple compression across equities, as evidenced by universally negative Pearson correlations across 10 of 11 GICS sectors. The severe discount-rate burden dampens long-duration equity valuation and tightens corporate borrowing spreads, restricting credit transmission and capital expenditure across the broader S&P 500 complex.
▲ REGIME TAILWIND SECTORS
XLE // Energy
Displays absolute relative resilience with Pearson r = +0.01 and a positive beta sensitivity of +0.05% per +25 bps, operating as an effective nominal cash-flow hedge that insulates balance sheets from high discount-rate regimes.
XLF // Financials
Maintains the shallowest negative profile across the matrix at Pearson r = -0.05 (beta of -0.25% per +25 bps), insulating commercial bank net interest margins (NIM) from aggressive duration-driven valuation haircuts.
XLY // Consumer Discretionary
Carries a relatively mild negative correlation at Pearson r = -0.08 (beta of -0.48% per +25 bps), suffering less systematic discount-rate multiple compression than defensive bond proxies and ultra-long duration cyclicals.
▼ REGIME HEADWIND SECTORS
XLU // Utilities
Tied for the steepest negative correlation at Pearson r = -0.20 and a steep beta sensitivity of -0.92% per +25 bps, heavily penalized as capital-intensive debt servicing costs jump and bond-proxy dividend yields lose spread appeal against the 4.98% risk-free benchmark.
XLV // Health Care
Exhibits peak negative co-movement at Pearson r = -0.20 with a beta sensitivity of -0.84% per +25 bps, facing direct terminal value multiple compression across long-dated clinical-pipeline cash flows.
XLC // Communication Services
Features the matrix's sharpest downside drag with a beta sensitivity of -0.96% per +25 bps and Pearson r = -0.18, heavily exposed to higher hurdle rates on long-duration digital ad and media cash flows.
HISTORICAL ANALOG // October 2023 5.00% Terminal Rate Duration Shock: The run-up and consolidation of the 10-Year yield around 4.98%-5.00% triggered deep multiple de-rating across bond-proxy defensives (XLU, XLRE) and long-duration tech, while cash-generative Energy (XLE) and short-duration value factors demonstrated persistent outperformance.
EQUITIES MOST SENSITIVE TO DGS10 STOCK BETA
| TICKER | LAST | % CHG | CORR (r) |
|---|---|---|---|
| NEE Utilities | $83.71 | +1.91% | -0.32 |
| GS Financials | $894.55 | -3.58% | -0.68 |
| XOM Energy | $187.25 | +2.16% | + 0.60 |
| JPM Financials | $337.04 | -1.90% | -0.59 |
| AMZN Consumer Discretionary | $240.35 | -1.41% | -0.52 |
| AVGO Technology | $326.08 | -5.48% | -0.51 |
| AAPL Technology | $344.63 | -1.23% | -0.48 |
| NVDA Technology | $204.64 | -4.22% | -0.47 |
| CAT Industrials | $622.75 | -3.81% | -0.45 |
| NFLX Communication Services | $62.08 | +0.05% | -0.43 |