UNH // UnitedHealth Group Incorporated

DES <GO> NYSE CIK 0000731766 ↗

Health Care • Managed Health Care, Medicare Advantage & Optum Services • SIC 6324

$406.97 ▼ -3.94 (-0.96%)

MKT CAP: $365.65B • VOL: 4.30M

52W L $256 52W H $462

ALTMAN Z

3.12 SAFE

PIOTROSKI

7 / 9

UNH // WSG GEEKSCORE™ & 5-PILLAR PROPRIETARY RATING 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE

PRIOR: 70/100 [B] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED AS OF 2026-10-31

GRADE B

TOTAL GEEKSCORE™

70 / 100 +0D

5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS

F 0 D 35 C 50 B 70 A+ 85

Accumulate / Smart-Money Inflow

01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL

Forensic Fundamentals

14 / 20

SOLID

FCF -22.4% vs NI -16.3% • ROIC-WACC +4.9% • Z 3.12

02 OPRA GEX + SEC 13F

Whale & Options Flow

[LOCKED] FLAGGED

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03 SEC FORM 4 (90D)

Insider Conviction

[LOCKED] FLAGGED

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04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX

Macro Regime Fit

16 / 20

STRONG

TAILWIND • r(10Y)=-0.01 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.03

05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT

Forensic 10-K Risk

16 / 20

STRONG

20 BASE - 4 DEDUCT • 1 CRIT / 2 MED • ESCALATING

ALERT

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SIG <GO> CROSS-FEED TRIANGULATION // PROPRIETARY ANOMALY ENGINE (1 ACTIVE ON UNH)

STAGE 2 DETERMINISTIC Z-SCORE + STAGE 3 GEEK DESK BRIEF ALL MARKET ANOMALIES <SIG>

▲ BULLISH // UNANNOUNCED GOVT CONTRACT CATALYSTSIFTER 07 // FEDERAL PRIME AWARD CATALYST

SEVERITY: 93/100 Z-SCORE: +2.36σ

UNH Awarded $1.37B Department of Veterans Affairs Prime Contract (1.25% of Annual Revenue Across 5 Obligations)

TOP FEDERAL AWARD

$1.37B (36C10G24K0111)

TOTAL OBLIGATED / TTM REV

$5.62B (1.25% REV)

AWARDING AGENCY

DEPARTMENT OF VETERANS A

[GEEK DESK FORENSIC NOTE // USASPENDING.GOV × TTM XBRL REVENUE]

USASpending.gov Prime Award APISAM.gov / CIK Entity MatcherSEC XBRL Trailing 12M Revenue

Live USASpending.gov procurement records show OPTUM PUBLIC SECTOR SOLUTIONS, INC. (UNH) secured Award 36C10G24K0111 for $1.37B from the Department of Veterans Affairs (EXPRESS REPORT: R3 FY 24 3RD QTR APRIL). Across 5 prime federal task orders, obligated awards total $5.62B—representing 1.25% of UNH's $447.57B trailing 12-month SEC XBRL revenue. Federal ledger obligations frequently post days ahead of sell-side backlog revisions.

UNH // HISTORICAL PRICE & TECHNICAL WORKSTATION1Y: +19.15%

2026-10-30O $419.0H $420.9L $404.3C $407.0VOL 20.32M

SMA50: $390.2SMA200: $362.8

UNH // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE

ACCUMULATE CONVICTION: 68/100

BEAR 0

100 BULL

UnitedHealth Group presents an asymmetric capital recovery setup trading at 17.1x Forward P/E and 16.5x EV/EBITDA against an enterprise generating a 6.46% FCF yield. Following medical loss ratio trough compression in FY2025 where operating margin compressed to 4.2%, sequential operating efficiency has rebounded to 7.1% in Q2 2026, delivering $10.25B in quarterly FCF. Balance sheet resilience remains institutional-grade with an Altman Z-score of 3.12 and D/E of 0.70x, providing sufficient duration defense as Medicare Advantage pricing renegotiations normalize.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)

01. Sequential Margin Inflection and FCF Acceleration

Operating performance has inflected off the Q4 2025 trough of 0.3% operating margin and $10.0M net income, reaching 7.1% OpM and $5.48B net income in Q2 2026. This sequential operational recovery expanded quarterly free cash flow to $10.25B in Q2 2026, restoring annualized ROIC to 16.9% compared to 9.8% in FY 2025.

OP MARGIN: 7.1% | FCF: $10.25B | Q2 ROIC: 16.9%

02. Defensive Quality Metrics with Robust FCF Yield Backstop

At $406.97, UNH provides a high margin of safety anchored by a 6.46% FCF yield, a 2.28% dividend yield, and a low equity beta of 0.33. Forensics confirm a fortress profile with an Altman Z-score of 3.12 and a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, with cash reserves growing to $28.59B against $73.33B in total debt.

FCF YIELD: 6.46% | ALTMAN Z: 3.12 | PIOTROSKI: 7/9

03. Constructive Technical Positioning Above Structural Moving Averages

Shares have consolidated above key trendlines, clearing the 50D SMA of $390.20 and 200D SMA of $362.76, while RSI-14 sits in neutral territory at 56.0. Street consensus targets an average price of $489.88 (+20.4% upside), supported by an options put/call ratio of 0.88 positioned tightly against the $400.00 max pain strike.

50D SMA: $390.20 | 200D SMA: $362.76 | P/C RATIO: 0.88

▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)

01. Top-Line Growth Deceleration Post-FY2025 Expansion

Top-line revenue momentum has experienced severe deceleration from 11.8% in FY 2025 and 12.3% in Q4 2025 down to just 0.4% YoY in Q2 2026 ($112.03B), highlighting saturation in core commercial risk pools and organic enrollment headwinds.

REV GROWTH: +0.4% | REVENUE: $112.03B | TRAILING P/E: 25.9x

02. Severe Government Payor and Regulatory Concentration Risk

UnitedHealth carries a 44% customer revenue concentration exposure to CMS across Medicare Advantage and State Medicaid Agencies. Sub-trend statutory baseline rate updates directly compress margins given the thin 3.1% consolidated net margin buffer.

CMS EXPOSURE: 44.0% | NET MARGIN: 3.1% | D/E: 0.70x

03. GLP-1 and Acute-Care Supplier Cost Pressures

Supplier exposure to branded biopharma manufacturers Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk (28% exposure) and acute-care hospital operators like HCA Healthcare (45% exposure) creates sustained medical loss inflation, capping full-year operating margins below historic FY 2022-2023 levels of 8.7%-8.8%.

HCA EXPOSURE: 45.0% | LLY/NVO EXPOSURE: 28.0% | FY25 OPM: 4.2%

KEY CATALYST // Upcoming CMS Final Medicare Advantage Payment Rate Notice alongside Q3 earnings; options markets price a 6.7% implied move, where sustained operating margin stabilization above 7.0% will trigger Street multiple re-rating toward the $489.88 consensus target.

MACRO REGIME // UNH displays negative sensitivity to rates and headline inflation, showing an inverse correlation to MORTGAGE30US (r = -0.14, R² = 0.02) and CPIAUCSL (r = -0.11, R² = 0.01), where a 50 bps rise in mortgage yields dampens weekly returns by -2.62% and a 1.0% CPI spike maps to -4.5% elasticity. Conversely, the asset acts as a late-cycle hedge, demonstrating positive correlation to civilian unemployment (UNRATE, r = +0.09) with a 50 bps increase driving a +5.46% return elasticity.

FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>

FILER	SIDE	$ VALUE
DeVeydt Wayne S	SELL	$483.2K
Conway Patrick Hugh	SELL	$455.9K
Stankiewicz Dennis Andrew	SELL	$93.7K
Conway Patrick Hugh	SELL	$205.0K

UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>

STRIKE / EXP	TYPE	PREMIUM
$418 (2026-11-13)	CALL	$235.5K
$408 (2026-11-06)	CALL	$233.9K
$415 (2026-11-06)	PUT	$197.9K
$413 (2026-11-13)	CALL	$119.5K

KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>

TRAILING P/E 25.9x

FORWARD P/E 17.1x

EV / EBITDA 16.5x

FCF YIELD 6.46%

GROSS MARGIN 88.6%

OPERATING MARGIN 4.8%

NET MARGIN 3.1%

ROIC % 11.5%

REV GROWTH YOY +6.5%

DILUTED EPS TTM $15.58

DEBT / EQUITY 0.70x

DIVIDEND YIELD 2.28%

RSI-14 MOMENTUM 56.0

5Y EQUITY BETA 0.33

FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>

MORTGAGE30US // 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average -0.14 r

Tactical inverse linkage (r = -0.14, R² = 1.8% over 260W): a +50 bps rise in MORTGAGE30US historically maps to -2.62% weekly return elasticity on UNH.

CPIAUCSL // Consumer Price Index: Headline All Items (CPI-U) -0.11 r

Muted inverse linkage (r = -0.11, R² = 1.2% over 257W): a +1.0% expansion in CPIAUCSL historically maps to -4.5% weekly return elasticity on UNH.

M2SL // M2 Money Supply Stock (Seasonally Adjusted) +0.11 r

Muted positive linkage (r = +0.11, R² = 1.2% over 257W): a +1.0% expansion in M2SL historically maps to +2.95% weekly return elasticity on UNH.

UNRATE // US Civilian Unemployment Rate (U-3) +0.09 r

Muted positive linkage (r = +0.09, R² = 0.8% over 257W): a +50 bps rise in UNRATE historically maps to +5.46% weekly return elasticity on UNH.

FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // UNHPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE

01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO

02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE

HEADLINE STRESS SCORE

38/100MODERATE VARIANCE

PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE

MORTGAGE30US // -0.14 r

Latest: 7.24%

EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE

-1.77%

Implied Px: $399.77

EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE

-$885

On $50,000 Notional

[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for UNH & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>

UNH VS LLY

MARGINS ROIC VALUATION