NFLX // Netflix, Inc.

DES <GO> NASDAQ CIK 0001065280 ↗

Communication Services • Global Streaming Entertainment & Ad-Supported Video • SIC 7841

$62.08 ▲ +0.03 (+0.05%)

MKT CAP: $255.82B • VOL: 51.37M

52W L $61 52W H $117

ALTMAN Z

8.27 SAFE

PIOTROSKI

7 / 9

NFLX // WSG GEEKSCORE™ & 5-PILLAR PROPRIETARY RATING 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE

PRIOR: 67/100 [C] (+1 PT) • UNCHANGED AS OF 2026-10-31

GRADE C

TOTAL GEEKSCORE™

68 / 100 +1D

5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS

F 0 D 35 C 50 B 70 A+ 85

Neutral / Battleground Ticker

01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL

Forensic Fundamentals

19 / 20

STRONG

FCF +36.7% vs NI +26.1% • ROIC-WACC +24.3% • Z 8.27

02 OPRA GEX + SEC 13F

Whale & Options Flow

13 / 20

SOLID

NET GEX +22% • CALL SWEEP 34% • P/C 1.00

03 SEC FORM 4 (90D)

Insider Conviction

[LOCKED] FLAGGED

UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL

04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX

Macro Regime Fit

[LOCKED] FLAGGED

UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL

05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT

Forensic 10-K Risk

16 / 20

STRONG

20 BASE - 4 DEDUCT • 1 CRIT / 2 MED • ESCALATING

ALERT

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SIG <GO> CROSS-FEED TRIANGULATION // PROPRIETARY ANOMALY ENGINE (1 ACTIVE ON NFLX)

STAGE 2 DETERMINISTIC Z-SCORE + STAGE 3 GEEK DESK BRIEF ALL MARKET ANOMALIES <SIG>

▲ BULLISH // INVERSE SUIT SIGNAL (CONTRARIAN BUY)SIFTER 04 // CONTRARIAN ANALYST SUITSCORE™

SEVERITY: 87/100 Z-SCORE: +2.80σ

NFLX Contrarian Buy: 34.2% UBS Accuracy & 14 Skeptics Countered by 19/20 Fundamentals

INVERSE ANALYST ACCURACY

34.2% (UBS)

WSG FUNDAMENTAL SCORE

19/20 PTS (ROIC 33.9%)

SKEPTICAL STREET CALLS

14 HOLD/SELL DESKS

[GEEK DESK FORENSIC NOTE // SELL-SIDE HIT RATE × XBRL FUNDAMENTALS]

Wall Street Analyst Backtest Ledger5Y Forward Return Alpha vs SPYWSG XBRL Fundamental Engine

A high-conviction Inverse Suit signal emerges with a z-score of 2.8, cross-referencing Wall Street analyst backtests against the WSG XBRL Fundamental Engine. Street skepticism remains heavy with 14 HOLD/SELL desks and an anchor BUY rating from UBS, a firm displaying an inverse analyst accuracy rate of just 34.2%. This pessimistic positioning strongly diverges from operational reality, as Netflix prints a near-perfect WSG fundamental score of 19/20 PTS powered by a 33.9% ROIC.

NFLX // HISTORICAL PRICE & TECHNICAL WORKSTATION1Y: -44.52%

2026-10-30O $65.16H $65.50L $61.39C $62.08VOL 242.69M

SMA50: $72.67SMA200: $81.60

NFLX // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE

HIGH-CONVICTION LONG CONVICTION: 82/100

BEAR 0

100 BULL

NFLX presents an asymmetrical long opportunity trading at an attractive 17.3x Trailing P/E and 16.3x EV/EBITDA against an elite 33.9% ROIC and 31.3% operating margin. With the stock compressed near its 52-week low ($62.08 vs $61.39-$116.73 range) and an oversold RSI-14 of 30.6, the market misprices 14.7% YoY top-line growth and a fortress balance sheet (Altman Z 8.27). A 4.45% FCF yield coupled with margin expansion to 52.8% in Q3 2026 establishes superior institutional risk-reward towards the $73.53 consensus target.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)

01. Structural Operating Leverage and Capital Efficiency Acceleration

NFLX demonstrated severe margin expansion through Q3 2026, delivering 52.8% gross margin and 34.6% operating margin, well above FY 2025 levels of 48.5% and 29.5%. Returns on capital continue to compound efficiently, rising to an annualized 38.9% ROIC in Q3 2026, backed by a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9.

GROSS MARGIN: 52.8% | OPM: 34.6% | ROIC: 38.9%

02. Oversold Technical Surface with Implied Mean Reversion Setup

Spot price of $62.08 sits 23.9% below its 200D SMA ($81.60) and 14.6% below its 50D SMA ($72.67), printing an oversold RSI-14 of 30.6. The options structure reflects balanced positioning at a 1.00 Put/Call ratio with Max Pain pinned at $67.00, implying immediate upward gravitational pull toward the mean price target of $73.53.

RSI-14: 30.6 | 200D SMA: $81.60 | MAX PAIN: $67.00

03. Robust Cash Conversion and De-Risked Balance Sheet Solvency

Trailing FCF yield sits at 4.45%, generating $9.50B+ in annualized free cash flow run rates with conservative leverage at 0.52x Debt-to-Equity. Altman Z-Score of 8.27 anchors the capital structure well inside the fortress zone, insulating equity holders from macro credit distress.

FCF YIELD: 4.45% | DEBT/EQUITY: 0.52x | ALTMAN Z: 8.27

▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)

01. Top-Line Deceleration Across Maturing Core Streaming Geographies

Quarterly YoY revenue growth has decelerated sequentially across the last four prints, declining from 17.6% in Q4 2025 to 16.2% in Q1 2026, 13.4% in Q2 2026, and 11.8% in Q3 2026, signaling saturation headwinds in key subscriber pools.

REV GROWTH: 11.8% Q3 2026 (DOWN FROM 17.6% Q4 2025)

02. High Cloud Infrastructure Concentration Risk

Operational delivery maintains high counterparty risk, with Amazon Web Services accounting for 75% supplier exposure. Any contractual renegotiation, egress price escalation, or outage introduces disproportionate margin volatility against the 31.3% operating margin profile.

SUPPLIER EXPOSURE: 75% AWS (AMZN)

03. Macro Volatility and High-Yield Spread Sensitivity

With an Equity Beta of 1.41, equity returns exhibit elevated sensitivity to macro stress regimes, evidenced by a Pearson r of -0.43 against VIXCLS and -0.31 against BAMLH0A0HYM2, where a 50 bps widening in high-yield spreads historically drives -4.53% weekly downside elasticity.

BETA: 1.41 | VIX R: -0.43 | HY OAS R: -0.31

KEY CATALYST // Q4 2026 earnings release and FY 2027 guidance; options market prices an implied move of 7.3%, where execution against ad-tier scaling and operating margins above 32% can force a valuation re-rating toward the Street mean target of $73.53 (+18.4% upside).

MACRO REGIME // Portfolio macro sensitivity is defined by VIXCLS (r = -0.43, R² = 0.18), indicating material multiple vulnerability to systemic vol shocks (+5.0 pt VIX spike implies -3.96% weekly return). Inflation pressure remains an additional drag via PCEPI (r = -0.23, R² = 0.05, where a 1.0% expansion drives -17.65% weekly return elasticity), while tight credit spreads (BAMLH0A0HYM2 at 3.26%, r = -0.31) continue to provide a supportive liquidity backdrop.

FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>

FILER	SIDE	$ VALUE
Smith Bradford L	SELL	$1.2M
Renaissance Technologies	BUY	$22.1M
Barton Richard N	SELL	$109.1K
Barton Richard N	SELL	$55.9K

UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>

STRIKE / EXP	TYPE	PREMIUM
$52 (2027-01-15)	PUT	$3.5M
$63 (2026-11-06)	CALL	$1.3M
$62 (2026-11-06)	CALL	$874.3K
$45 (2029-01-19)	PUT	$2.0M

KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>

TRAILING P/E 17.3x

FORWARD P/E 19.2x

EV / EBITDA 16.3x

FCF YIELD 4.45%

GROSS MARGIN 50.7%

OPERATING MARGIN 31.3%

NET MARGIN 29.7%

ROIC % 33.9%

REV GROWTH YOY +14.7%

DILUTED EPS TTM $3.46

DEBT / EQUITY 0.52x

DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%

RSI-14 MOMENTUM 30.6

5Y EQUITY BETA 1.41

FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>

VIXCLS // CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) -0.43 r

Moderate inverse linkage (r = -0.43, R² = 18.3% over 260W): a +5.0 pt volatility spike in VIXCLS historically maps to -3.96% weekly return elasticity on NFLX.

BAMLH0A0HYM2 // ICE BofA US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread (OAS) -0.31 r

Moderate inverse linkage (r = -0.31, R² = 9.5% over 156W): a +50 bps rise in BAMLH0A0HYM2 historically maps to -4.53% weekly return elasticity on NFLX.

UMCSENT // University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index +0.30 r

Moderate positive linkage (r = +0.30, R² = 9.2% over 257W): a +1 unit move in UMCSENT historically maps to +1.12% weekly return elasticity on NFLX.

PCEPI // Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index -0.23 r

Tactical inverse linkage (r = -0.23, R² = 5.2% over 257W): a +1.0% expansion in PCEPI historically maps to -17.65% weekly return elasticity on NFLX.

FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // NFLXPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE

01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO

02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE

HEADLINE STRESS SCORE

52/100ELEVATED REGIME HEADWIND

PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE

BAMLH0A0HYM2 // -0.31 r

Latest: 3.26%