ORCL // Oracle Corporation

DES <GO> NYSE CIK 0001341439 ↗

Technology • Cloud Infrastructure & Enterprise Database Software • SIC 7372

$130.67 ▼ -8.89 (-6.37%)

MKT CAP: $405.97B • VOL: 40.05M

52W L $115 52W H $282

GEEKSCORE™

C • 55/100

ALTMAN Z

1.54 RISK

PIOTROSKI

6 / 9

ORCL // WSG GEEKSCORE™ & 5-PILLAR PROPRIETARY RATING 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE

PRIOR: 50/100 [C] (+5 PT) • UNCHANGED AS OF 2026-10-31

GRADE C

TOTAL GEEKSCORE™

55 / 100 +5D

5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS

F 0 D 35 C 50 B 70 A+ 85

Neutral / Battleground Ticker

01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL

Forensic Fundamentals

[LOCKED] FLAGGED

UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL

02 OPRA GEX + SEC 13F

Whale & Options Flow

13 / 20

SOLID

NET GEX -6% • CALL SWEEP 32% • P/C 0.76

03 SEC FORM 4 (90D)

Insider Conviction

16 / 20

STRONG

90D BUYS: 1 ($3.5M) • SELLS: 3 (0.13 bps cap)

04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX

Macro Regime Fit

7 / 20

WARNING

HEADWIND • r(10Y)=-0.09 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=-0.30

05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT

Forensic 10-K Risk

[LOCKED] FLAGGED

UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL

ALERT

Why did ORCL's Forensic Fundamentals & Forensic 10-K Risk sub-score just flash a warning? Enter your email to unlock the full 5-Pillar Rating Breakdown + get instant alerts whenever ORCL is Upgraded or Downgraded.

ORCL // HISTORICAL PRICE & TECHNICAL WORKSTATION1Y: -50.24%

2026-10-30O $126.1H $148.5L $123.8C $130.7VOL 211.31M

SMA50: $141.8SMA200: $157.0

ORCL // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE

UNDERWEIGHT CONVICTION: 38/100

BEAR 0

100 BULL

Oracle trades at 17.9x EV/EBITDA and 16.5x Forward P/E against a severely impaired cash generation profile, marked by -7.07% Free Cash Flow Yield and -$23.69B FCF in FY2026. While Q1 2027 top-line grew 29.6% YoY to $19.34B with a 34.8% operating margin, balance sheet leverage has ballooned to $129.54B in debt and an Altman Z-score of 1.54. With the stock breaking below its 50D SMA ($141.80) and 200D SMA ($156.96), unhedged long exposure presents unfavorable risk-reward driven by hyperscale capex cash burn.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)

01. OCI Cloud Infrastructure Acceleration

Top-line revenue trajectory re-accelerated to 29.6% YoY growth in Q1 2027 ($19.34B), driven by enterprise backlog conversion and critical offload compute partnerships with Microsoft/OpenAI representing 14% exposure.

REVENUE YOY: +29.6% | OPERATING MARGIN: 34.8%

02. Core Operating Leverage and Profitability Expansion

Operating margin expanded to 34.8% in Q1 2027 from 30.6% in FY2026, delivering $4.76B in quarterly net income and supporting an annual diluted EPS base of $6.38.

OPERATING MARGIN: 34.8% | NET MARGIN: 26.4% | EPS: $6.38

03. Mission-Critical Enterprise Base Retention

Sticky database ERP contracts across healthcare and Fortune 500 accounts provide durable annuity revenue, anchoring annualized revenue at $67.36B in FY2026.

FY2026 REVENUE: $67.36B | FORWARD P/E: 16.5x

▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)

01. Aggressive Capex Cycle Severely Depleting Free Cash Flow

CapEx expanded to $55.66B in FY2026 and hit $28.50B in Q1 2027 alone, driving FY2026 FCF to -$23.69B and Q1 2027 FCF to -$5.40B, collapsing FCF yield to -7.07%.

FCF YIELD: -7.07% | FY2026 CAPEX: $55.66B | FY2026 FCF: -$23.69B

02. Elevated Leverage Profile in Distressed Credit Territory

Total debt reached $129.54B against $31.29B cash at FY2026 year-end, pushing Debt-to-Equity to 1.94x and compressing the Altman Z-score to 1.54, firmly below the 1.80 distress threshold.

DEBT/EQUITY: 1.94x | ALTMAN Z-SCORE: 1.54 | TOTAL DEBT: $129.54B

03. Technical Breakdown and Hardware Supplier Concentration

Price has collapsed -6.37% to $130.67, breaking well beneath its 50D SMA ($141.80) and 200D SMA ($156.96) while carrying 52% supplier exposure to NVIDIA, magnifying margin vulnerability to cluster delivery schedules.

LAST PRICE: $130.67 | 200D SMA: $156.96 | NVDA EXP: 52%

KEY CATALYST // Q2 2027 earnings release and datacenter capex disclosures; options pricing implies an 11.6% move against Max Pain of $150.00, where any failure to moderate capex intensity below $20B/quarter will trigger further credit spread widening and equity de-rating.

MACRO REGIME // ORCL demonstrates sensitivity to credit and volatility conditions, showing inverse correlations to BAMLH0A0HYM2 (r = -0.30, where a +50 bps spread widening implies -6.34% weekly return decay) and VIXCLS (r = -0.35, where a +5.0 pt vol spike maps to -3.25% equity return elasticity).

FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>

FILER	SIDE	$ VALUE
Rusckowski Stephen H	BUY	$3.5M
Sicilia Michael D.	SELL	$3.4M
Smith Maria	SELL	$399.1K
Sicilia Michael D.	SELL	$1.5M

UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>

STRIKE / EXP	TYPE	PREMIUM
$130 (2026-11-06)	PUT	$5.0M
$130 (2027-12-17)	PUT	$15.8M
$135 (2026-11-06)	CALL	$1.3M
$135 (2026-11-13)	CALL	$2.2M

KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>

TRAILING P/E 21.5x

FORWARD P/E 16.5x

EV / EBITDA 17.9x

FCF YIELD -7.07%

GROSS MARGIN —

OPERATING MARGIN 32.1%

NET MARGIN 26.4%

ROIC % 11.4%

REV GROWTH YOY +21.6%

DILUTED EPS TTM $6.38

DEBT / EQUITY 1.94x

DIVIDEND YIELD 1.53%

RSI-14 MOMENTUM 45.6

5Y EQUITY BETA 1.37

FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>

VIXCLS // CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) -0.35 r

Moderate inverse linkage (r = -0.35, R² = 12.3% over 260W): a +5.0 pt volatility spike in VIXCLS historically maps to -3.25% weekly return elasticity on ORCL.

BAMLH0A0HYM2 // ICE BofA US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread (OAS) -0.30 r

Moderate inverse linkage (r = -0.30, R² = 8.9% over 156W): a +50 bps rise in BAMLH0A0HYM2 historically maps to -6.34% weekly return elasticity on ORCL.

UNRATE // US Civilian Unemployment Rate (U-3) +0.19 r

Tactical positive linkage (r = +0.19, R² = 3.5% over 257W): a +50 bps rise in UNRATE historically maps to +14.93% weekly return elasticity on ORCL.

PCEPI // Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index -0.17 r

Tactical inverse linkage (r = -0.17, R² = 3% over 257W): a +1.0% expansion in PCEPI historically maps to -13.11% weekly return elasticity on ORCL.

FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // ORCLPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE

01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO

02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE

HEADLINE STRESS SCORE

51/100ELEVATED REGIME HEADWIND

PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE

BAMLH0A0HYM2 // -0.30 r

Latest: 3.26%