SERIES: BAMLH0A0HYM2 (3.26)
VIXCLS (17.2)
INDPRO (103.9506)
UMCSENT (48.1)
CPIAUCSL (336.298)
CPILFESL (338.896)
DCOILWTICO (103.37)
MORTGAGE30US (7.24)
PCEPI (132.257)
ICSA (194000)
PAYEMS (159044)
UNRATE (4.2)
M2SL (23413.9)
NETLIQ (5745.73)
RRPONTSYD (4.375)
WALCL (6745635)
WTREGEN (999727)
DFII10 (2.63)
DGS10 (4.98)
DGS2 (4.61)
FEDFUNDS (3.75)
SOFR (3.94)
T10Y2Y (0.38)
FRED // UNRATE
US Civilian Unemployment Rate (U-3)
LABOR Monthly
OBSERVATION DATE: 2026-09-01 • UNIT: %
LATEST OBSERVATION
4.2 %
PRIOR / PERIOD Δ
4.1 (+ 0.10)
YOY CHANGE
-0.20 %
UNRATE // US Civilian Unemployment Rate (U-3) (%)1Y: -0.20 (-4.5%)
2026-09-01OBSERVATION: 4.20% (%)
11 S&P 500 GICS SECTOR PEARSON CORRELATION MATRIX VS. UNRATE SORTED TAILWIND (+r) ──► HEADWIND (-r)
| ETF | GICS SECTOR | PEARSON r | CORRELATION BAR (-1 TO +1) | R² | BETA / REGIME TRANSMISSION |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLC | Communication Services | +0.30 r | | 9% | [+4.97% per +25 bps] Primary cyclical tailwind when UNRATE expands (r=0.30) |
| XLF | Financials | +0.20 r | | 4% | [+3.2% per +25 bps] Modest pro-cyclical beta benefit on rising UNRATE |
| XLY | Consumer Discretionary | +0.14 r | | 2% | [+2.75% per +25 bps] Modest pro-cyclical beta benefit on rising UNRATE |
| XLK | Technology | +0.14 r | | 2% | [+2.95% per +25 bps] Modest pro-cyclical beta benefit on rising UNRATE |
| XLV | Health Care | +0.10 r | | 1% | [+1.26% per +25 bps] Modest pro-cyclical beta benefit on rising UNRATE |
| XLB | Materials | +0.10 r | | 1% | [+1.66% per +25 bps] Modest pro-cyclical beta benefit on rising UNRATE |
| XLI | Industrials | +0.08 r | | 1% | [+1.17% per +25 bps] Low-beta regime neutral across 5Y UNRATE cycle (258W) |
| XLE | Energy | +0.07 r | | 0% | [+1.49% per +25 bps] Low-beta regime neutral across 5Y UNRATE cycle (258W) |
| XLRE | Real Estate | +0.06 r | | 0% | [+0.97% per +25 bps] Low-beta regime neutral across 5Y UNRATE cycle (258W) |
| XLP | Consumer Staples | -0.01 r | | 0% | [-0.07% per +25 bps] Low-beta regime neutral across 5Y UNRATE cycle (258W) |
| XLU | Utilities | -0.11 r | | 1% | [-1.65% per +25 bps] Defensive/rate-sensitive drag during UNRATE upswings |
AI MACRO REGIME IMPACT BRIEF RESTRICTIVE
US Civilian Unemployment Rate (U-3) (UNRATE) Prints 4.2 % (Prior: 4.1 %)
Cross-asset regression across S&P 500 GICS sectors demonstrates significant factor dispersion to US Civilian Unemployment Rate (U-3). Portfolio managers utilize UNRATE inflections to rotate between short-duration cash-flow sectors and long-duration growth multiples.
▲ REGIME TAILWIND SECTORS
XLC // Communication Services
Primary cyclical tailwind when UNRATE expands (r=0.30) (Pearson r = +0.30, R² = 9%)
XLF // Financials
Modest pro-cyclical beta benefit on rising UNRATE (Pearson r = +0.20, R² = 4%)
XLY // Consumer Discretionary
Modest pro-cyclical beta benefit on rising UNRATE (Pearson r = +0.14, R² = 2%)
▼ REGIME HEADWIND SECTORS
XLU // Utilities
Defensive/rate-sensitive drag during UNRATE upswings (Pearson r = -0.11, R² = 1%)
XLP // Consumer Staples
Low-beta regime neutral across 5Y UNRATE cycle (258W) (Pearson r = -0.01, R² = 0%)
HISTORICAL ANALOG // Comparable to 2022–2025 post-ZIRP monetary normalization where real-rate sensitivity dominated equity factor attribution.
EQUITIES MOST SENSITIVE TO UNRATE STOCK BETA
| TICKER | LAST | % CHG | CORR (r) |
|---|---|---|---|
| JPM Financials | $337.04 | -1.90% | + 0.24 |
| ORCL Technology | $130.67 | -6.37% | + 0.19 |
| UNH Health Care | $406.97 | -0.96% | + 0.09 |
| GS Financials | $894.55 | -3.58% | -0.68 |
| XOM Energy | $187.25 | +2.16% | + 0.60 |
| AMZN Consumer Discretionary | $240.35 | -1.41% | -0.52 |
| AVGO Technology | $326.08 | -5.48% | -0.51 |
| AAPL Technology | $344.63 | -1.23% | -0.48 |
| NVDA Technology | $204.64 | -4.22% | -0.47 |
| CAT Industrials | $622.75 | -3.81% | -0.45 |