SERIES: BAMLH0A0HYM2 (3.26)
VIXCLS (17.2)
INDPRO (103.9506)
UMCSENT (48.1)
CPIAUCSL (336.298)
CPILFESL (338.896)
DCOILWTICO (103.37)
MORTGAGE30US (7.24)
PCEPI (132.257)
ICSA (194000)
PAYEMS (159044)
UNRATE (4.2)
M2SL (23413.9)
NETLIQ (5745.73)
RRPONTSYD (4.375)
WALCL (6745635)
WTREGEN (999727)
DFII10 (2.63)
DGS10 (4.98)
DGS2 (4.61)
FEDFUNDS (3.75)
SOFR (3.94)
T10Y2Y (0.38)
FRED // ICSA
Initial Unemployment Jobless Claims
LABOR Weekly
OBSERVATION DATE: 2026-10-24 • UNIT: Claims
LATEST OBSERVATION
194000 Claims
PRIOR / PERIOD Δ
195000 ( -1000.00)
YOY CHANGE
-12.22 Claims
ICSA // Initial Unemployment Jobless Claims (Claims)1Y: -27000.00 (-12.2%)
2026-10-24OBSERVATION: 194,000 (Claims)
11 S&P 500 GICS SECTOR PEARSON CORRELATION MATRIX VS. ICSA SORTED TAILWIND (+r) ──► HEADWIND (-r)
| ETF | GICS SECTOR | PEARSON r | CORRELATION BAR (-1 TO +1) | R² | BETA / REGIME TRANSMISSION |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLP | Consumer Staples | +0.05 r | | 0% | [+0.02% per +1% delta] Low-beta regime neutral across 5Y ICSA cycle (261W) |
| XLI | Industrials | +0.03 r | | 0% | [+0.02% per +1% delta] Low-beta regime neutral across 5Y ICSA cycle (261W) |
| XLB | Materials | +0.03 r | | 0% | [+0.02% per +1% delta] Low-beta regime neutral across 5Y ICSA cycle (261W) |
| XLE | Energy | +0.02 r | | 0% | [+0.02% per +1% delta] Low-beta regime neutral across 5Y ICSA cycle (261W) |
| XLF | Financials | +0.02 r | | 0% | [+0.01% per +1% delta] Low-beta regime neutral across 5Y ICSA cycle (261W) |
| XLU | Utilities | -0.01 r | | 0% | [-0.01% per +1% delta] Low-beta regime neutral across 5Y ICSA cycle (261W) |
| XLV | Health Care | -0.01 r | | 0% | [-0.01% per +1% delta] Low-beta regime neutral across 5Y ICSA cycle (261W) |
| XLC | Communication Services | -0.01 r | | 0% | [-0.01% per +1% delta] Low-beta regime neutral across 5Y ICSA cycle (261W) |
| XLRE | Real Estate | -0.02 r | | 0% | [-0.01% per +1% delta] Low-beta regime neutral across 5Y ICSA cycle (261W) |
| XLY | Consumer Discretionary | -0.03 r | | 0% | [-0.02% per +1% delta] Low-beta regime neutral across 5Y ICSA cycle (261W) |
| XLK | Technology | -0.04 r | | 0% | [-0.03% per +1% delta] Low-beta regime neutral across 5Y ICSA cycle (261W) |
AI MACRO REGIME IMPACT BRIEF NEUTRAL
Initial Unemployment Jobless Claims (ICSA) Prints 194000 Claims (Prior: 195000 Claims)
Cross-asset regression across S&P 500 GICS sectors demonstrates significant factor dispersion to Initial Unemployment Jobless Claims. Portfolio managers utilize ICSA inflections to rotate between short-duration cash-flow sectors and long-duration growth multiples.
▲ REGIME TAILWIND SECTORS
XLP // Consumer Staples
Low-beta regime neutral across 5Y ICSA cycle (261W) (Pearson r = +0.05, R² = 0%)
XLI // Industrials
Low-beta regime neutral across 5Y ICSA cycle (261W) (Pearson r = +0.03, R² = 0%)
XLB // Materials
Low-beta regime neutral across 5Y ICSA cycle (261W) (Pearson r = +0.03, R² = 0%)
▼ REGIME HEADWIND SECTORS
XLK // Technology
Low-beta regime neutral across 5Y ICSA cycle (261W) (Pearson r = -0.04, R² = 0%)
XLY // Consumer Discretionary
Low-beta regime neutral across 5Y ICSA cycle (261W) (Pearson r = -0.03, R² = 0%)
XLRE // Real Estate
Low-beta regime neutral across 5Y ICSA cycle (261W) (Pearson r = -0.02, R² = 0%)
HISTORICAL ANALOG // Comparable to 2022–2025 post-ZIRP monetary normalization where real-rate sensitivity dominated equity factor attribution.
EQUITIES MOST SENSITIVE TO ICSA STOCK BETA
| TICKER | LAST | % CHG | CORR (r) |
|---|---|---|---|
| GS Financials | $894.55 | -3.58% | -0.68 |
| XOM Energy | $187.25 | +2.16% | + 0.60 |
| JPM Financials | $337.04 | -1.90% | -0.59 |
| AMZN Consumer Discretionary | $240.35 | -1.41% | -0.52 |
| AVGO Technology | $326.08 | -5.48% | -0.51 |
| AAPL Technology | $344.63 | -1.23% | -0.48 |
| NVDA Technology | $204.64 | -4.22% | -0.47 |
| CAT Industrials | $622.75 | -3.81% | -0.45 |
| NFLX Communication Services | $62.08 | +0.05% | -0.43 |
| GOOGL Communication Services | $279.84 | -1.40% | -0.43 |