FRED // DFII10

10-Year TIPS Constant Maturity Real Yield

YIELDS Daily

OBSERVATION DATE: 2026-10-29 • UNIT: %

LATEST OBSERVATION

2.63 %

PRIOR / PERIOD Δ

2.67 ( -0.04)

YOY CHANGE

+ 0.85 %

DFII10 // 10-Year TIPS Constant Maturity Real Yield (%)1Y: +0.92 (+53.8%)

2026-10-29OBSERVATION: 2.63% (%)

11 S&P 500 GICS SECTOR PEARSON CORRELATION MATRIX VS. DFII10 SORTED TAILWIND (+r) ──► HEADWIND (-r)

ETF	GICS SECTOR	PEARSON r	R²	BETA / REGIME TRANSMISSION
XLE	Energy	+0.01 r	0%	[+0.12% per +25 bps] Low-beta regime neutral across 5Y DFII10 cycle (261W)
XLF	Financials	-0.04 r	0%	[-0.22% per +25 bps] Low-beta regime neutral across 5Y DFII10 cycle (261W)
XLY	Consumer Discretionary	-0.08 r	1%	[-0.56% per +25 bps] Defensive/rate-sensitive drag during DFII10 upswings
XLK	Technology	-0.09 r	1%	[-0.7% per +25 bps] Defensive/rate-sensitive drag during DFII10 upswings
XLP	Consumer Staples	-0.10 r	1%	[-0.39% per +25 bps] Defensive/rate-sensitive drag during DFII10 upswings
XLB	Materials	-0.10 r	1%	[-0.57% per +25 bps] Defensive/rate-sensitive drag during DFII10 upswings
XLV	Health Care	-0.11 r	1%	[-0.51% per +25 bps] Defensive/rate-sensitive drag during DFII10 upswings
XLI	Industrials	-0.12 r	1%	[-0.64% per +25 bps] Defensive/rate-sensitive drag during DFII10 upswings
XLRE	Real Estate	-0.14 r	2%	[-0.79% per +25 bps] Defensive/rate-sensitive drag during DFII10 upswings
XLC	Communication Services	-0.15 r	2%	[-0.89% per +25 bps] Defensive/rate-sensitive drag during DFII10 upswings
XLU	Utilities	-0.18 r	3%	[-0.95% per +25 bps] Defensive/rate-sensitive drag during DFII10 upswings

AI MACRO REGIME IMPACT BRIEF RESTRICTIVE

10Y TIPS REAL YIELD PRINTS 2.63%: PERSISTENT RESTRICTIVE REGIME DESPITE SEQUENTIAL EASING

The 10-year TIPS real yield softened by -0.040% sequentially from 2.67% to 2.63%, yet remains elevated with a +0.85% YoY surge near the upper half of its 52-observation range (2.32% to 2.95%). Real hurdle rates at 2.63% maintain intense multiple compression pressure on high-duration assets and elevate real capital costs for debt refinancing. The persistent tightness exerts a structural drag across broad equities, demanding rigorous balance sheet quality and pricing power.

▲ REGIME TAILWIND SECTORS

XLE // Energy

Holding the sole positive Pearson correlation (r = +0.01) with a positive beta sensitivity of +0.12% per +25 bps, XLE acts as the primary real-asset hedge against structural cost-of-capital pressures and elevated real discount rates.

XLF // Financials

Exhibiting the least negative drag across non-energy GICS sectors (r = -0.04, beta sensitivity = -0.22% per +25 bps), XLF benefits from high real baseline reinvestment yields across bank asset portfolios and institutional treasury operations.

XLY // Consumer Discretionary

With a relatively resilient correlation footprint (r = -0.08, beta sensitivity = -0.56% per +25 bps), top-heavy discretionary mega-caps provide superior cash-flow duration relative to pure bond-proxy defensive peers under high real rates.

▼ REGIME HEADWIND SECTORS

XLU // Utilities

Bearing the most severe negative correlation (r = -0.18, beta sensitivity = -0.95% per +25 bps), XLU experiences intense valuation headwinds as a 2.63% risk-free real yield drastically erodes the relative appeal of regulated equity dividend yields.

XLC // Communication Services

Displaying strong negative sensitivity (r = -0.15, beta sensitivity = -0.89% per +25 bps), XLC faces acute DCF multiple compression on long-dated terminal cash flows in an environment of structurally elevated discount rates.

XLRE // Real Estate

With r = -0.14 and a beta drag of -0.79% per +25 bps, real estate sustains double headwinds from widening commercial property cap rates and prohibitive refinancing hurdle rates against 2.63% benchmark real yields.

HISTORICAL ANALOG // 2023 Real-Yield Spike (August-October 2023): When 10-year real yields broke above 2.50%, S&P 500 equity duration compressed sharply, triggering acute drawdowns in Utilities (XLU) and REITs (XLRE), while Value, Energy (XLE), and cash-rich balance sheets demonstrated significant factor outperformance.

EQUITIES MOST SENSITIVE TO DFII10 STOCK BETA

TICKER	LAST	% CHG	CORR (r)
NEE Utilities	$83.71	+1.91%	-0.34
COST Consumer Staples	$1,012.28	+1.63%	-0.25
CRM Technology	$229.17	-0.75%	-0.22
BRK-B Financials	$542.49	+0.10%	-0.20
GS Financials	$894.55	-3.58%	-0.68
XOM Energy	$187.25	+2.16%	+ 0.60
JPM Financials	$337.04	-1.90%	-0.59
AMZN Consumer Discretionary	$240.35	-1.41%	-0.52
AVGO Technology	$326.08	-5.48%	-0.51
AAPL Technology	$344.63	-1.23%	-0.48