GC / YCRV <GO> // US Treasury Yield Curve & Real Rates Matrix Fed Funds, SOFR, 2Y/10Y Nominal Yields, 10Y-2Y Curve Inversion & 10Y TIPS Real Yields

FRED ID	MACRO INDICATOR	CATEGORY	LATEST	PRIOR	YOY / Δ	OBS DATE
DFII10	10-Year TIPS Constant Maturity Real Yield	YIELDS	2.63 %	2.67	-0.04 (+0.85 YoY)	2026-10-29
DGS10	10-Year US Treasury Constant Maturity Yield	YIELDS	4.98 %	5.05	-0.07 (+0.90 YoY)	2026-10-29
DGS2	2-Year US Treasury Constant Maturity Yield	YIELDS	4.61 %	4.67	-0.06 (+1.02 YoY)	2026-10-29
FEDFUNDS	Effective Federal Funds Policy Rate	YIELDS	3.75 %	3.63	+ 0.12 (-0.47 YoY)	2026-09-01
SOFR	Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR)	YIELDS	3.94 %	3.94	+ 0.00 (-0.33 YoY)	2026-10-29
T10Y2Y	10-Year Minus 2-Year Treasury Yield Spread	YIELDS	0.38 %	0.37	+ 0.01 (-0.12 YoY)	2026-10-30

FRED // T10Y2Y

10-Year Minus 2-Year Treasury Yield Spread

YIELDS Daily

OBSERVATION DATE: 2026-10-30 • UNIT: %

LATEST OBSERVATION

0.38 %

PRIOR / PERIOD Δ

0.37 (+ 0.01)

YOY CHANGE

-0.12 %

T10Y2Y // 10-Year Minus 2-Year Treasury Yield Spread (%)1Y: -0.11 (-22.4%)

2026-10-30OBSERVATION: 0.38% (%)

11 S&P 500 GICS SECTOR PEARSON CORRELATION MATRIX VS. T10Y2Y SORTED TAILWIND (+r) ──► HEADWIND (-r)

ETF	GICS SECTOR	PEARSON r	R²	BETA / REGIME TRANSMISSION
XLU	Utilities	+0.11 r	1%	[+0.72% per +25 bps] Modest pro-cyclical beta benefit on rising T10Y2Y
XLP	Consumer Staples	+0.10 r	1%	[+0.51% per +25 bps] Modest pro-cyclical beta benefit on rising T10Y2Y
XLY	Consumer Discretionary	+0.07 r	1%	[+0.62% per +25 bps] Low-beta regime neutral across 5Y T10Y2Y cycle (261W)
XLC	Communication Services	+0.05 r	0%	[+0.38% per +25 bps] Low-beta regime neutral across 5Y T10Y2Y cycle (261W)
XLRE	Real Estate	+0.03 r	0%	[+0.21% per +25 bps] Low-beta regime neutral across 5Y T10Y2Y cycle (261W)
XLI	Industrials	+0.02 r	0%	[+0.14% per +25 bps] Low-beta regime neutral across 5Y T10Y2Y cycle (261W)
XLF	Financials	+0.01 r	0%	[+0.09% per +25 bps] Low-beta regime neutral across 5Y T10Y2Y cycle (261W)
XLV	Health Care	+0.00 r	0%	[+0.02% per +25 bps] Low-beta regime neutral across 5Y T10Y2Y cycle (261W)
XLE	Energy	-0.01 r	0%	[-0.08% per +25 bps] Low-beta regime neutral across 5Y T10Y2Y cycle (261W)
XLK	Technology	-0.02 r	0%	[-0.19% per +25 bps] Low-beta regime neutral across 5Y T10Y2Y cycle (261W)
XLB	Materials	-0.02 r	0%	[-0.15% per +25 bps] Low-beta regime neutral across 5Y T10Y2Y cycle (261W)

AI MACRO REGIME IMPACT BRIEF NEUTRAL

US TREASURY CURVE UN-INVERSION FLATTENS AT +0.38%: TERM PREMIUM NORMALIZATION SIGNALS POST-STRESS MID-CYCLE TRANSITION

The T10Y2Y spread ticked up sequentially by +0.010% to print at 0.38% (down -0.12% YoY), remaining within its trailing 52-observation corridor of 0.20% to 0.52%. With the curve maintaining a mild positive slope, discount-rate volatility is transitioning from front-end policy uncertainty toward long-end duration adjustments, stabilizing bank net interest margin dynamics while containing systemic credit-spread blowouts. Multiples across high-duration growth face minor valuation compression, while defensive yield proxies show relative stability as term premia re-anchor.

▲ REGIME TAILWIND SECTORS

XLU // Utilities

Displays the highest positive relationship across the matrix (Pearson r = +0.11, beta sensitivity of +0.72% per +25 bps steepening), benefiting as steepening reflects orderly rate-cut cycles that lower debt refinancing costs on highly leveraged balance sheets.

XLP // Consumer Staples

Carries a Pearson r of +0.10 with a +0.51% sensitivity per +25 bps move; steady terminal rates and an un-inverted 2Y10Y spread support inelastic cash flows and dividend appeal relative to shifting front-end cash yields.

XLY // Consumer Discretionary

Exhibits a Pearson r of +0.07 and beta sensitivity of +0.62% per +25 bps, supported by the curve steepening away from recessionary inversion levels and alleviating tighter consumer credit and financing constraints.

▼ REGIME HEADWIND SECTORS

XLK // Technology

Presents an inverse sensitivity with Pearson r = -0.02 and beta sensitivity of -0.19% per +25 bps; rising long-end yields relative to short-term paper trigger DCF multiple contraction across long-duration software and semiconductor equities.

XLB // Materials

Displays a negative correlation (Pearson r = -0.02, beta sensitivity of -0.15% per +25 bps), facing headwinds from term premium elevation and muted global industrial demand despite curve steepening.

XLE // Energy

Registers a slightly negative Pearson r of -0.01 with a -0.08% beta response per +25 bps, as mild disinflationary bull/bear steepening dynamics fail to inject upward momentum into crude demand and upstream capex multiples.

HISTORICAL ANALOG // 2024 Post-Inversion Re-Steepening Regime: Following protracted 2022-2023 inversion, the 2Y10Y spread rebuilt positive territory around +30 to +50 bps via mixed front-end policy easing and back-end term-premium re-pricing. During this transition, cyclicals and mega-cap tech experienced factor dispersion and valuation consolidation, while dividend-yielding defensive factors and rate-sensitive bond proxies stabilized as systemic recession hazards receded.

EQUITIES MOST SENSITIVE TO T10Y2Y STOCK BETA

TICKER	LAST	% CHG	CORR (r)
GS Financials	$894.55	-3.58%	-0.68
XOM Energy	$187.25	+2.16%	+ 0.60
JPM Financials	$337.04	-1.90%	-0.59
AMZN Consumer Discretionary	$240.35	-1.41%	-0.52
AVGO Technology	$326.08	-5.48%	-0.51
AAPL Technology	$344.63	-1.23%	-0.48
NVDA Technology	$204.64	-4.22%	-0.47
CAT Industrials	$622.75	-3.81%	-0.45
NFLX Communication Services	$62.08	+0.05%	-0.43
GOOGL Communication Services	$279.84	-1.40%	-0.43