SERIES: BAMLH0A0HYM2 (3.26)
VIXCLS (17.2)
INDPRO (103.9506)
UMCSENT (48.1)
CPIAUCSL (336.298)
CPILFESL (338.896)
DCOILWTICO (103.37)
MORTGAGE30US (7.24)
PCEPI (132.257)
ICSA (194000)
PAYEMS (159044)
UNRATE (4.2)
M2SL (23413.9)
NETLIQ (5745.73)
RRPONTSYD (4.375)
WALCL (6745635)
WTREGEN (999727)
DFII10 (2.63)
DGS10 (4.98)
DGS2 (4.61)
FEDFUNDS (3.75)
SOFR (3.94)
T10Y2Y (0.38)
FRED // BAMLH0A0HYM2
ICE BofA US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread (OAS)
CREDIT Daily
OBSERVATION DATE: 2026-10-29 • UNIT: %
LATEST OBSERVATION
3.26 %
PRIOR / PERIOD Δ
3.14 (+ 0.12)
YOY CHANGE
+ 0.50 %
BAMLH0A0HYM2 // ICE BofA US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread (OAS) (%)1Y: +0.44 (+15.6%)
2026-10-29OBSERVATION: 3.26% (%)
11 S&P 500 GICS SECTOR PEARSON CORRELATION MATRIX VS. BAMLH0A0HYM2 SORTED TAILWIND (+r) ──► HEADWIND (-r)
| ETF | GICS SECTOR | PEARSON r | CORRELATION BAR (-1 TO +1) | R² | BETA / REGIME TRANSMISSION |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLP | Consumer Staples | +0.03 r | | 0% | [+0.07% per +25 bps] Low-beta regime neutral across 5Y BAMLH0A0HYM2 cycle (156W) |
| XLU | Utilities | +0.00 r | | 0% | [+0.01% per +25 bps] Low-beta regime neutral across 5Y BAMLH0A0HYM2 cycle (156W) |
| XLV | Health Care | -0.02 r | | 0% | [-0.05% per +25 bps] Low-beta regime neutral across 5Y BAMLH0A0HYM2 cycle (156W) |
| XLRE | Real Estate | -0.07 r | | 0% | [-0.2% per +25 bps] Low-beta regime neutral across 5Y BAMLH0A0HYM2 cycle (156W) |
| XLF | Financials | -0.07 r | | 0% | [-0.2% per +25 bps] Low-beta regime neutral across 5Y BAMLH0A0HYM2 cycle (156W) |
| XLK | Technology | -0.07 r | | 1% | [-0.33% per +25 bps] Low-beta regime neutral across 5Y BAMLH0A0HYM2 cycle (156W) |
| XLC | Communication Services | -0.09 r | | 1% | [-0.28% per +25 bps] Defensive/rate-sensitive drag during BAMLH0A0HYM2 upswings |
| XLI | Industrials | -0.10 r | | 1% | [-0.3% per +25 bps] Defensive/rate-sensitive drag during BAMLH0A0HYM2 upswings |
| XLY | Consumer Discretionary | -0.11 r | | 1% | [-0.41% per +25 bps] Defensive/rate-sensitive drag during BAMLH0A0HYM2 upswings |
| XLB | Materials | -0.13 r | | 2% | [-0.41% per +25 bps] Defensive/rate-sensitive drag during BAMLH0A0HYM2 upswings |
| XLE | Energy | -0.14 r | | 2% | [-0.6% per +25 bps] Defensive/rate-sensitive drag during BAMLH0A0HYM2 upswings |
AI MACRO REGIME IMPACT BRIEF RESTRICTIVE
US HIGH YIELD OAS WIDENS TO 3.26%: CREDIT RISK PREMIUM RE-PRICING PRESSURES CYCLICALS
ICE BofA US High Yield OAS rebounded +0.120% sequentially to 3.26% (+0.50% YoY), hovering near the upper boundary of its 52-observation range (2.60% to 3.40%). Widening high-yield spreads reflect tightening corporate borrowing conditions and diminishing liquidity, driving multiple compression across balance-sheet-leveraged equities. As marginal debt financing costs escalate, systemic equity beta faces headwinds, enforcing institutional rotation away from deep cyclicals toward defensive, non-cyclical cash-flow anchors.
▲ REGIME TAILWIND SECTORS
XLP // Consumer Staples
Demonstrates the highest relative resilience with a positive Pearson r of +0.03 and +0.07% beta sensitivity per +25 bps of spread widening, shielded by pricing power and inelastic demand profiles.
XLU // Utilities
Exhibits complete cycle neutrality (Pearson r = +0.00, Beta Sensitivity = +0.01% per +25 bps), serving as a regulated bond-proxy haven that insulates earnings against high-yield refinancing shocks.
XLV // Health Care
Shows minimal negative exposure (Pearson r = -0.02, Beta Sensitivity = -0.05% per +25 bps), supported by stable secular demand and robust free-cash-flow generation that limits debt-service vulnerabilities.
▼ REGIME HEADWIND SECTORS
XLE // Energy
Carries the steepest negative sensitivity in the complex (Pearson r = -0.14, Beta Sensitivity = -0.6% per +25 bps), as widening spreads signal deteriorating global demand expectations and elevated capital expenditure financing hurdles.
XLB // Materials
Faces strong cyclical headwinds (Pearson r = -0.13, Beta Sensitivity = -0.41% per +25 bps), vulnerable to downstream inventory destocking and escalating working-capital carrying costs under credit tightening.
XLY // Consumer Discretionary
Severely exposed to widening spreads (Pearson r = -0.11, Beta Sensitivity = -0.41% per +25 bps) due to consumer debt re-pricing, diminishing discretionary spending velocity, and high debt loads among specialty retailers.
HISTORICAL ANALOG // Late 2018 Fed QT and Terminal Rate Pricing: High-yield spreads widened toward the 3.50%-4.00% band amid tightening financial conditions, triggering a rapid breakdown in high-beta cyclicals (XLE, XLI) while defensive quality and minimum volatility factors (XLP, XLV) outperformed on relative multiple preservation.
EQUITIES MOST SENSITIVE TO BAMLH0A0HYM2 STOCK BETA
| TICKER | LAST | % CHG | CORR (r) |
|---|---|---|---|
| GS Financials | $894.55 | -3.58% | -0.68 |
| JPM Financials | $337.04 | -1.90% | -0.59 |
| AMZN Consumer Discretionary | $240.35 | -1.41% | -0.48 |
| AVGO Technology | $326.08 | -5.48% | -0.45 |
| CAT Industrials | $622.75 | -3.81% | -0.45 |
| AAPL Technology | $344.63 | -1.23% | -0.44 |
| NVDA Technology | $204.64 | -4.22% | -0.42 |
| GOOGL Communication Services | $279.84 | -1.40% | -0.39 |
| COIN Financials | $143.54 | -10.62% | -0.38 |
| CRM Technology | $229.17 | -0.75% | -0.37 |