SERIES: BAMLH0A0HYM2 (3.26)
VIXCLS (17.2)
INDPRO (103.9506)
UMCSENT (48.1)
CPIAUCSL (336.298)
CPILFESL (338.896)
DCOILWTICO (103.37)
MORTGAGE30US (7.24)
PCEPI (132.257)
ICSA (194000)
PAYEMS (159044)
UNRATE (4.2)
M2SL (23413.9)
NETLIQ (5745.73)
RRPONTSYD (4.375)
WALCL (6745635)
WTREGEN (999727)
DFII10 (2.63)
DGS10 (4.98)
DGS2 (4.61)
FEDFUNDS (3.75)
SOFR (3.94)
T10Y2Y (0.38)
FRED // UMCSENT
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index
GROWTH Monthly
OBSERVATION DATE: 2026-09-01 • UNIT: Index
LATEST OBSERVATION
48.1 Index
PRIOR / PERIOD Δ
51.7 ( -3.60)
YOY CHANGE
-12.70 Index
UMCSENT // University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Index)1Y: -7.00 (-12.7%)
2026-09-01OBSERVATION: 48.10 (Index)
11 S&P 500 GICS SECTOR PEARSON CORRELATION MATRIX VS. UMCSENT SORTED TAILWIND (+r) ──► HEADWIND (-r)
| ETF | GICS SECTOR | PEARSON r | CORRELATION BAR (-1 TO +1) | R² | BETA / REGIME TRANSMISSION |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLY | Consumer Discretionary | +0.43 r | | 19% | [+0.77% per +1.0 pt] Primary cyclical tailwind when UMCSENT expands (r=0.43) |
| XLI | Industrials | +0.38 r | | 14% | [+0.53% per +1.0 pt] Primary cyclical tailwind when UMCSENT expands (r=0.38) |
| XLRE | Real Estate | +0.34 r | | 11% | [+0.51% per +1.0 pt] Primary cyclical tailwind when UMCSENT expands (r=0.34) |
| XLF | Financials | +0.30 r | | 9% | [+0.44% per +1.0 pt] Primary cyclical tailwind when UMCSENT expands (r=0.30) |
| XLK | Technology | +0.27 r | | 7% | [+0.53% per +1.0 pt] Modest pro-cyclical beta benefit on rising UMCSENT |
| XLC | Communication Services | +0.27 r | | 7% | [+0.41% per +1.0 pt] Modest pro-cyclical beta benefit on rising UMCSENT |
| XLB | Materials | +0.26 r | | 7% | [+0.39% per +1.0 pt] Modest pro-cyclical beta benefit on rising UMCSENT |
| XLV | Health Care | +0.24 r | | 6% | [+0.28% per +1.0 pt] Modest pro-cyclical beta benefit on rising UMCSENT |
| XLP | Consumer Staples | +0.14 r | | 2% | [+0.16% per +1.0 pt] Modest pro-cyclical beta benefit on rising UMCSENT |
| XLU | Utilities | +0.14 r | | 2% | [+0.19% per +1.0 pt] Modest pro-cyclical beta benefit on rising UMCSENT |
| XLE | Energy | -0.11 r | | 1% | [-0.22% per +1.0 pt] Defensive/rate-sensitive drag during UMCSENT upswings |
AI MACRO REGIME IMPACT BRIEF NEUTRAL
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (UMCSENT) Prints 48.1 Index (Prior: 51.7 Index)
Cross-asset regression across S&P 500 GICS sectors demonstrates significant factor dispersion to University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. Portfolio managers utilize UMCSENT inflections to rotate between short-duration cash-flow sectors and long-duration growth multiples.
▲ REGIME TAILWIND SECTORS
XLY // Consumer Discretionary
Primary cyclical tailwind when UMCSENT expands (r=0.43) (Pearson r = +0.43, R² = 19%)
XLI // Industrials
Primary cyclical tailwind when UMCSENT expands (r=0.38) (Pearson r = +0.38, R² = 14%)
XLRE // Real Estate
Primary cyclical tailwind when UMCSENT expands (r=0.34) (Pearson r = +0.34, R² = 11%)
▼ REGIME HEADWIND SECTORS
XLE // Energy
Defensive/rate-sensitive drag during UMCSENT upswings (Pearson r = -0.11, R² = 1%)
HISTORICAL ANALOG // Comparable to 2022–2025 post-ZIRP monetary normalization where real-rate sensitivity dominated equity factor attribution.
EQUITIES MOST SENSITIVE TO UMCSENT STOCK BETA
| TICKER | LAST | % CHG | CORR (r) |
|---|---|---|---|
| COIN Financials | $143.54 | -10.62% | + 0.38 |
| TSLA Consumer Discretionary | $399.81 | -0.87% | + 0.32 |
| NFLX Communication Services | $62.08 | +0.05% | + 0.30 |
| AMZN Consumer Discretionary | $240.35 | -1.41% | + 0.27 |
| NVDA Technology | $204.64 | -4.22% | + 0.27 |
| META Communication Services | $614.99 | -1.53% | + 0.27 |
| COST Consumer Staples | $1,012.28 | +1.63% | + 0.27 |
| CAT Industrials | $622.75 | -3.81% | + 0.25 |
| CRM Technology | $229.17 | -0.75% | + 0.24 |
| AVGO Technology | $326.08 | -5.48% | + 0.22 |