SERIES: BAMLH0A0HYM2 (3.26)
VIXCLS (17.2)
INDPRO (103.9506)
UMCSENT (48.1)
CPIAUCSL (336.298)
CPILFESL (338.896)
DCOILWTICO (103.37)
MORTGAGE30US (7.24)
PCEPI (132.257)
ICSA (194000)
PAYEMS (159044)
UNRATE (4.2)
M2SL (23413.9)
NETLIQ (5745.73)
RRPONTSYD (4.375)
WALCL (6745635)
WTREGEN (999727)
DFII10 (2.63)
DGS10 (4.98)
DGS2 (4.61)
FEDFUNDS (3.75)
SOFR (3.94)
T10Y2Y (0.38)
FRED // MORTGAGE30US
30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average
INFLATION Weekly
OBSERVATION DATE: 2026-10-29 • UNIT: %
LATEST OBSERVATION
7.24 %
PRIOR / PERIOD Δ
7.32 ( -0.08)
YOY CHANGE
+ 1.07 %
MORTGAGE30US // 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average (%)1Y: +1.07 (+17.3%)
2026-10-29OBSERVATION: 7.24% (%)
11 S&P 500 GICS SECTOR PEARSON CORRELATION MATRIX VS. MORTGAGE30US SORTED TAILWIND (+r) ──► HEADWIND (-r)
| ETF | GICS SECTOR | PEARSON r | CORRELATION BAR (-1 TO +1) | R² | BETA / REGIME TRANSMISSION |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLV | Health Care | +0.05 r | | 0% | [+0.21% per +25 bps] Low-beta regime neutral across 5Y MORTGAGE30US cycle (261W) |
| XLP | Consumer Staples | +0.02 r | | 0% | [+0.07% per +25 bps] Low-beta regime neutral across 5Y MORTGAGE30US cycle (261W) |
| XLE | Energy | -0.01 r | | 0% | [-0.07% per +25 bps] Low-beta regime neutral across 5Y MORTGAGE30US cycle (261W) |
| XLU | Utilities | -0.03 r | | 0% | [-0.15% per +25 bps] Low-beta regime neutral across 5Y MORTGAGE30US cycle (261W) |
| XLK | Technology | -0.03 r | | 0% | [-0.22% per +25 bps] Low-beta regime neutral across 5Y MORTGAGE30US cycle (261W) |
| XLI | Industrials | -0.04 r | | 0% | [-0.19% per +25 bps] Low-beta regime neutral across 5Y MORTGAGE30US cycle (261W) |
| XLRE | Real Estate | -0.04 r | | 0% | [-0.22% per +25 bps] Low-beta regime neutral across 5Y MORTGAGE30US cycle (261W) |
| XLY | Consumer Discretionary | -0.05 r | | 0% | [-0.33% per +25 bps] Low-beta regime neutral across 5Y MORTGAGE30US cycle (261W) |
| XLF | Financials | -0.05 r | | 0% | [-0.27% per +25 bps] Low-beta regime neutral across 5Y MORTGAGE30US cycle (261W) |
| XLB | Materials | -0.06 r | | 0% | [-0.32% per +25 bps] Low-beta regime neutral across 5Y MORTGAGE30US cycle (261W) |
| XLC | Communication Services | -0.07 r | | 1% | [-0.4% per +25 bps] Low-beta regime neutral across 5Y MORTGAGE30US cycle (261W) |
AI MACRO REGIME IMPACT BRIEF RESTRICTIVE
30Y MORTGAGE RATE PRINTS AT 7.24% AMID ELEVATED HOUSING RESTRICTION AND RATE VOLATILITY
The 30-year fixed mortgage rate eased -0.080% sequentially to 7.24%, remaining pinned near the upper bound of its trailing 52-week range (5.98% - 7.40%) and up +1.07% YoY. Structural duration headwinds and mortgage spread widening continue to freeze housing turnover, impairing household liquidity and tightening private sector financial conditions. Persistently elevated financing costs reinforce equity multiple compression across long-duration growth while driving capital toward non-cyclical defensive cash flows.
▲ REGIME TAILWIND SECTORS
XLV // Health Care
Displays the highest relative resilience in the factor matrix (r = +0.05, beta sensitivity of +0.21% per +25 bps) due to inelastic demand dynamics and defensive balance sheets that decouple earnings from housing market liquidity shocks.
XLP // Consumer Staples
Exhibits positive correlation (r = +0.02, beta sensitivity of +0.07% per +25 bps) as essential non-discretionary spending protects operational margins against mortgage-driven household disposable income compression.
XLE // Energy
Maintains low sensitivity to mortgage rates (r = -0.01, beta sensitivity of -0.07% per +25 bps), anchored by global commodity demand and high free cash flow conversion rather than domestic mortgage financing costs.
▼ REGIME HEADWIND SECTORS
XLC // Communication Services
Screens with the most negative sensitivity across the matrix (r = -0.07, R² = 0.01, beta sensitivity of -0.40% per +25 bps), facing terminal growth rate multiple discounting from elevated structural discount rates.
XLB // Materials
High negative beta sensitivity (-0.32% per +25 bps, r = -0.06) as residential construction stagnation, locked-in homeowners, and sluggish housing starts compress cyclical physical input demand.
XLY // Consumer Discretionary
Sharp negative sensitivity (r = -0.05, beta sensitivity of -0.33% per +25 bps) as 7.24% borrowing costs crowd out discretionary consumer budgets via elevated debt-service obligations.
HISTORICAL ANALOG // Resembles the Autumn 2023 Real-Yield Spike where the 30-year mortgage rate held firmly above 7.00% (peaking near 7.80%), forcing S&P 500 multiple de-rating, sharp underperformance in rate-sensitive cyclicals and long-duration growth, and clear flight-to-quality leadership into defensive balance sheets and energy cash cows.
EQUITIES MOST SENSITIVE TO MORTGAGE30US STOCK BETA
| TICKER | LAST | % CHG | CORR (r) |
|---|---|---|---|
| UNH Health Care | $406.97 | -0.96% | -0.14 |
| GS Financials | $894.55 | -3.58% | -0.68 |
| XOM Energy | $187.25 | +2.16% | + 0.60 |
| JPM Financials | $337.04 | -1.90% | -0.59 |
| AMZN Consumer Discretionary | $240.35 | -1.41% | -0.52 |
| AVGO Technology | $326.08 | -5.48% | -0.51 |
| AAPL Technology | $344.63 | -1.23% | -0.48 |
| NVDA Technology | $204.64 | -4.22% | -0.47 |
| CAT Industrials | $622.75 | -3.81% | -0.45 |
| NFLX Communication Services | $62.08 | +0.05% | -0.43 |