ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

LLY // Eli Lilly and Company

DES <GO> NYSE CIK 0000059478 ↗
Health Care • Biopharmaceuticals, GLP-1/GIP Cardiometabolic & Oncology • SIC 2834
$1,417.54 ▲ +43.84 (+3.19%)
MKT CAP: $1.34T • VOL: 5.03M
LLY // WSG GEEKSCORE™ & 5-PILLAR PROPRIETARY RATING 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: 70/100 [B] (+2 PT) • UNCHANGED
GRADE B
TOTAL GEEKSCORE™
72 / 100 +2D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
F 0 D 35 C 50 B 70 A+ 85
Accumulate / Smart-Money Inflow
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
19 / 20
STRONG
FCF +90.7% vs NI +94.9% • ROIC-WACC +26.1% • Z 9.33
02 OPRA GEX + SEC 13F
Whale & Options Flow
14 / 20
SOLID
NET GEX +70% • CALL SWEEP 45% • P/C 1.48
03 SEC FORM 4 (90D)
Insider Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
14 / 20
SOLID
TAILWIND • r(10Y)=-0.11 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=-0.14
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
ALERT

Why did LLY's Forensic 10-K Risk & Insider Conviction sub-score just flash a warning? Enter your email to unlock the full 5-Pillar Rating Breakdown + get instant alerts whenever LLY is Upgraded or Downgraded.

SIG <GO> CROSS-FEED TRIANGULATION // PROPRIETARY ANOMALY ENGINE (1 ACTIVE ON LLY)
ALL MARKET ANOMALIES <SIG>
▲ BULLISH // INVERSE SUIT SIGNAL (CONTRARIAN BUY)SIFTER 04 // CONTRARIAN ANALYST SUITSCORE™
SEVERITY: 87/100 Z-SCORE: +2.80σ

LLY Contrarian Setup: Barclays Underperform (34.5% Accuracy) vs 19/20 Fundamental Score

INVERSE ANALYST ACCURACY
34.5% (Barclays)
WSG FUNDAMENTAL SCORE
19/20 PTS (ROIC 32.4%)
SKEPTICAL STREET CALLS
5 HOLD/SELL DESKS
[GEEK DESK FORENSIC NOTE // SELL-SIDE HIT RATE × XBRL FUNDAMENTALS]
Wall Street Analyst Backtest Ledger5Y Forward Return Alpha vs SPYWSG XBRL Fundamental Engine

A high-conviction Inverse Suit signal emerges with a z-score of 2.8 as Barclays maintains an Underperform rating despite a historically deficient 34.5% one-year analyst accuracy rate. This skepticism extends across 5 Hold/Sell desks even as Eli Lilly prints an elite 19/20 points on the WSG fundamental engine alongside a 32.4% ROIC. The acute disconnect between lagging Wall Street consensus and deterministic XBRL fundamental strength indicates an asymmetric contrarian entry for institutional positioning.

LLY // HISTORICAL PRICE & TECHNICAL WORKSTATION1Y: +64.28%
2026-10-30O $1,286.4H $1,449.7L $1,260.3C $1,417.5VOL 15.63M
SMA50: $1,197.1SMA200: $1,091.2
$1,489.5$1,300.3$1,111.0$921.8$732.5$1,417.52025-10-312026-01-302026-05-012026-07-312026-10-30
LLY // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
HIGH-CONVICTION LONG CONVICTION: 81/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

LLY is executing an exceptional cardiometabolic volume cycle, delivering 45.5% YoY revenue growth, 83.6% Gross Margin, and 32.4% ROIC, which fully backs its $1.34T market capitalization. While valuation sits elevated at 36.6x EV/EBITDA and 48.6x trailing P/E, forward earnings power compresses the multiple to 26.3x Forward P/E against pristine balance sheet quality reflected in a 9.33 Altman Z-Score and 9/9 Piotroski F-Score. Risk-reward remains skewed to the upside with street consensus targeting $1689.78 (19.2% implied upside), though tactical entry requires discipline given an overextended RSI-14 of 77.9.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Tier-1 Profitability and Compounding Free Cash Flow Conversion

Incretin franchise scaling drove Gross Margin to 83.6% and Operating Margin to 40.2%, expanding TTM Diluted EPS to $30.81. Quarterly FCF generation surged to $11.40B in Q3 2026, pushing FY 2025 FCF to $16.81B and sustaining an elite Return on Invested Capital of 32.4%.

GROSS MARGIN: 83.6% | ROIC: 32.4% | FCF: $11.40B (Q3 2026)
02. Hyperbolic Top-Line Acceleration and Operating Leverage

Revenue expanded 45.5% YoY to reach $24.40B in Q3 2026 (up 38.6% YoY) following 47.7% growth in Q2 2026, demonstrating sustained GLP-1/GIP market share capture and pricing leverage across wholesale channels.

REV YOY: 45.5% | Q3 2026 REV: $24.40B | Q2 2026 ROIC: 36.6%
03. Fortress Financial Quality Backstopping Reinvestment Runway

The business exhibits perfect operational and accounting quality with an Altman Z-Score of 9.33 and a maximum Piotroski F-Score of 9/9, allowing LLY to self-fund aggressive R&D scaling ($4.25B in Q3 2026, $13.34B in FY 2025) while absorbing $49.50B in debt.

ALTMAN Z: 9.33 | PIOTROSKI: 9/9 | R&D: $13.34B (FY 2025)
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Extreme Technical Extension and Options Downside Skew

Momentum is tactical stretched with RSI-14 at 77.9, trading $220.40 above its 50D SMA of $1197.14 and far above its 200D SMA of $1091.24. An elevated Put/Call Ratio of 1.48 and Max Pain Strike at $1200.00 signal strong institutional tail-risk hedging and gap-fill exposure.

RSI-14: 77.9 | 50D SMA: $1197.14 | PUT/CALL: 1.48 | MAX PAIN: $1200.00
02. Elevated Absolute Multiples and Compressed FCF Yield Cushion

At 36.6x EV/EBITDA, 48.6x trailing P/E, and an FCF Yield of just 2.29%, valuation offers minimal cushion against execution missteps or supply bottleneck delays via key sterile fill-finish CDMO partners (48% exposure to CTLT).

EV/EBITDA: 36.6x | P/E: 48.6x | FCF YIELD: 2.29%
03. Distributor and PBM Counterparty Concentration Risk

Revenues are intensely concentrated through the Big 3 US Wholesalers (McKesson at 84% exposure) and top PBMs (55% exposure to OptumRx, CVS Caremark, and Cigna), creating vulnerability to formulary shifts, gross-to-net rebate concessions, and wholesaler de-stocking.

WHOLESALER EXP: 84% (MCK) | PBM EXP: 55% (UNH) | DEBT/EQUITY: 1.23x
KEY CATALYST // Q4 2026 earnings release and next-gen cardiometabolic pipeline readouts; the options market prices a 6.8% implied move against a Street Mean Price Target of $1689.78, where margin maintenance above 40% OpM is required to validate forward multiple re-rating.
MACRO REGIME // LLY functions as a low-beta asset (Beta 0.51) but carries systematic rate and inflation factor sensitivity: Pearson r=-0.18 vs Headline CPI (CPIAUCSL) and r=-0.16 vs Core CPI (CPILFESL) dictate that a +1.0% CPI expansion yields -6.94% and -11.47% return elasticity respectively. High-yield credit spread widening (BAMLH0A0HYM2 r=-0.14) and equity volatility shocks (VIXCLS r=-0.23, where +5.0 pts cuts returns by -1.68%) remain key tactical headwinds for its 36.6x EV/EBITDA multiple.
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
$1,450 (2026-11-06) CALL $947.0K
$1,400 (2026-11-06) PUT $899.3K
$1,340 (2026-11-20) PUT $601.2K
$1,480 (2026-12-04) CALL $942.3K
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 48.6x
FORWARD P/E 26.3x
EV / EBITDA 36.6x
FCF YIELD 2.29%
GROSS MARGIN 83.6%
OPERATING MARGIN 40.2%
NET MARGIN 31.9%
ROIC % 32.4%
REV GROWTH YOY +45.5%
DILUTED EPS TTM $30.81
DEBT / EQUITY 1.23x
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.49%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 77.9
5Y EQUITY BETA 0.51
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
Tactical inverse linkage (r = -0.23, R² = 5.3% over 260W): a +5.0 pt volatility spike in VIXCLS historically maps to -1.68% weekly return elasticity on LLY.
Tactical inverse linkage (r = -0.18, R² = 3.4% over 257W): a +1.0% expansion in CPIAUCSL historically maps to -6.94% weekly return elasticity on LLY.
Tactical inverse linkage (r = -0.16, R² = 2.7% over 257W): a +1.0% expansion in CPILFESL historically maps to -11.47% weekly return elasticity on LLY.
Tactical inverse linkage (r = -0.14, R² = 2.1% over 156W): a +50 bps rise in BAMLH0A0HYM2 historically maps to -2.26% weekly return elasticity on LLY.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // LLYPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
39/100MODERATE VARIANCE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
BAMLH0A0HYM2 // -0.14 r
Latest: 3.26%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-1.90%
Implied Px: $1,390.54
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$952
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for LLY & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>