AMD // Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.

DES <GO> NASDAQ CIK 0000002488 ↗

Technology • Semiconductors & Data Center Compute • SIC 3674

$504.80 ▼ -61.62 (-10.88%)

MKT CAP: $811.65B • VOL: 39.53M

52W L $188 52W H $659

ALTMAN Z

16.12 SAFE

PIOTROSKI

6 / 9

AMD // WSG GEEKSCORE™ & 5-PILLAR PROPRIETARY RATING 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE

PRIOR: 66/100 [C] (+1 PT) • UNCHANGED AS OF 2026-10-31

GRADE C

TOTAL GEEKSCORE™

67 / 100 +1D

5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS

F 0 D 35 C 50 B 70 A+ 85

Neutral / Battleground Ticker

01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL

Forensic Fundamentals

14 / 20

SOLID

FCF +180% vs NI +164.2% • ROIC-WACC -6% • Z 16.12

02 OPRA GEX + SEC 13F

Whale & Options Flow

[LOCKED] FLAGGED

UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL

03 SEC FORM 4 (90D)

Insider Conviction

[LOCKED] FLAGGED

UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL

04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX

Macro Regime Fit

14 / 20

SOLID

TAILWIND • r(10Y)=-0.04 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=-0.29

05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT

Forensic 10-K Risk

16 / 20

STRONG

20 BASE - 4 DEDUCT • 1 CRIT / 2 MED • ESCALATING

ALERT

Why did AMD's Insider Conviction & Whale & Options Flow sub-score just flash a warning? Enter your email to unlock the full 5-Pillar Rating Breakdown + get instant alerts whenever AMD is Upgraded or Downgraded.

SIG <GO> CROSS-FEED TRIANGULATION // PROPRIETARY ANOMALY ENGINE (2 ACTIVE ON AMD)

STAGE 2 DETERMINISTIC Z-SCORE + STAGE 3 GEEK DESK BRIEF ALL MARKET ANOMALIES <SIG>

▼ BEARISH // MACRO TAILWIND SCORE (24/100)SIFTER 05 // TRUE NET LIQUIDITY BETA

SEVERITY: 89/100 Z-SCORE: +2.98σ

AMD Faces Macro Headwind: Net Liquidity Drops -0.64% as Tailwind Score Hits 24/100

TRUE NET LIQUIDITY

$5,746B (-0.64% 4W)

NET LIQUIDITY ELASTICITY

1.39x BETA (r=+0.17)

MACRO TAILWIND SCORE

24 / 100

[GEEK DESK FORENSIC NOTE // FRED WALCL - TGA - RRP × 5Y BETA]

FRED Fed Assets (WALCL)US Treasury TGA (WTREGEN) + ON RRPICE BofA High-Yield OAS + 5Y Equity Beta

Macro net liquidity contracted to $5,746B (-0.64% 4W) alongside a 2 bps widening in ICE BofA high-yield OAS, driving the aggregate macro tailwind score down to 24 / 100. Advanced Micro Devices carries an elevated net liquidity elasticity beta of 1.39x (r=+0.17), heightening downside transmission risks as systemic dollar liquidity drains. This multi-feed divergence registers an acute z-score of 2.98, signaling severe vulnerability for high-beta equity positioning under persistent quantitative tightening.

▲ BULLISH // INVERSE SUIT SIGNAL (CONTRARIAN BUY)SIFTER 04 // CONTRARIAN ANALYST SUITSCORE™

SEVERITY: 70/100 Z-SCORE: +2.10σ

AMD Contrarian Setup: Barclays 42% Accuracy & 10 Skeptics Clash With 14/20 Fundamentals

INVERSE ANALYST ACCURACY

42% (Barclays)

WSG FUNDAMENTAL SCORE

14/20 PTS (ROIC 7.8%)

SKEPTICAL STREET CALLS

10 HOLD/SELL DESKS

[GEEK DESK FORENSIC NOTE // SELL-SIDE HIT RATE × XBRL FUNDAMENTALS]

Wall Street Analyst Backtest Ledger5Y Forward Return Alpha vs SPYWSG XBRL Fundamental Engine

Multi-feed institutional triangulation brief redacted on server pending verified B-Unit credential. Complete 1-step email verification to unblur full forensic evidence, cross-feed divergences, and Z-score attribution.

[LOCKED FORENSIC BRIEF] ENTER EMAIL IN GEEKSCORE BAR ABOVE TO UNBLUR ALL AMD CROSS-FEED NOTES UNBLUR BRIEF <GO>

AMD // HISTORICAL PRICE & TECHNICAL WORKSTATION1Y: +97.10%

2026-10-30O $522.8H $579.2L $492.2C $504.8VOL 112.71M

SMA50: $548.3SMA200: $410.5

AMD // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE

NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 52/100

BEAR 0

100 BULL

AMD prints an accelerated top-line expansion with Q2 2026 revenue growing 50.1% YoY to $11.54B and gross margin expanding to 53.8%, but capital efficiency remains mediocre with TTM ROIC at just 7.8%. At an extreme valuation of 113.5x EV/EBITDA, 126.2x trailing P/E, and an anemic 1.04% FCF yield, execution perfection is fully priced in against high customer concentration (MSFT 15%, META 12%). With the equity trading below its 50D SMA of $548.29 and options pricing a 13.1% implied move against a $350.00 Max Pain strike, the risk-reward profiles as a tactical pair trade rather than an outright long.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)

01. Top-Line Acceleration Driven by Hyperscale AI Deployments

Top-line momentum showed consecutive acceleration from 34.1% YoY in Q4 2025 to 50.1% YoY in Q2 2026 reaching $11.54B in quarterly revenue, supported by anchored enterprise demand across Microsoft (15% exposure) and Meta Platforms (12% exposure).

REV GROWTH: 50.1% YOY | Q2 2026 REV: $11.54B

02. Sequential Operating Leverage and Margin Expansion

Operating leverage is demonstrating inflection as gross margin expanded from 49.5% in FY 2025 to 53.8% in Q2 2026, while operating margin expanded to 17.3% and quarterly ROIC reached 9.6%, up from the FY 2025 trough of 4.8%.

GROSS MARGIN: 53.8% | OPERATING MARGIN: 17.3% | ROIC: 9.6%

03. Fortress Balance Sheet Mitigates Downside Tail Risk

De-leveraged capital structure with a minimal Debt-to-Equity ratio of 0.05x, an Altman Z-Score of 16.12, and $5.09B in liquid cash reserves insulates ongoing R&D reinvestment ($2.53B in Q2 2026) without requiring dilutive external financing.

ALTMAN Z: 16.12 | D/E: 0.05x | CASH: $5.09B

▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)

01. Extreme Valuation Multiples and Cash Conversion Fragility

Valuation leaves zero room for guidance cuts or cadence pauses, trading at 113.5x EV/EBITDA and 126.2x trailing P/E while yielding just 1.04% FCF on $504.80 share price, with CapEx ramping aggressively to $808.0M in Q2 2026 from $258.0M in Q3 2025.

EV/EBITDA: 113.5x | TRAILING P/E: 126.2x | FCF YIELD: 1.04%

02. Severe Supply Chain and Hyperscale Revenue Concentration Risk

Advanced packaging and wafer foundry dependencies are near-monopolistic with TSMC holding 95% supplier exposure, while top hyperscalers MSFT, META, and ORCL command 35% of cumulative revenues, exposing gross margins to tier-1 pricing pressure.

TSM EXPOSURE: 95% | TOP-3 CONCENTRATION: 35%

03. Technicals Deteriorating with Substantial Max Pain Divergence

Price action broke below the 50D SMA of $548.29 following a -10.88% 1D drawdown, with RSI-14 dropping to 39.7 and derivatives positioning reflecting substantial downside magnet risk toward the $350.00 Max Pain strike against a 1.04 Put/Call ratio.

50D SMA: $548.29 | RSI-14: 39.7 | MAX PAIN: $350.00

KEY CATALYST // Next earnings print and hyperscaler capex revision cycle; options market implies a 13.1% move where failure to demonstrate datacenter gross margin persistence above 54% risks compressing the forward P/E from 46.2x toward historical semiconductor peer averages.

MACRO REGIME // AMD carries an elevated equity beta of 1.87 and displays a persistent inverse sensitivity to volatility spikes via VIXCLS (r = -0.40, R² = 0.16, mapping a +5.0 pt VIX spike to a -4.7% weekly drag) and credit stress via BAMLH0A0HYM2 (r = -0.29, R² = 0.09, where +50 bps in HY spreads historically drives a -6.97% weekly return shock).

FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>

FILER	SIDE	$ VALUE
Norrod Forrest Eugene	SELL	$8.7M
Su Lisa T	SELL	$48.1M
Hu Jean X.	SELL	$7.1M
Norrod Forrest Eugene	SELL	$7.9M

UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>

STRIKE / EXP	TYPE	PREMIUM
$550 (2026-11-06)	CALL	$6.1M
$500 (2026-11-02)	PUT	$4.4M
$540 (2026-11-06)	CALL	$3.9M
$510 (2026-11-06)	CALL	$7.8M

KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>

TRAILING P/E 126.2x

FORWARD P/E 46.2x

EV / EBITDA 113.5x

FCF YIELD 1.04%

GROSS MARGIN 53.2%

OPERATING MARGIN 15.7%

NET MARGIN 15.6%

ROIC % 7.8%

REV GROWTH YOY +39.5%

DILUTED EPS TTM $3.89

DEBT / EQUITY 0.05x

DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%

RSI-14 MOMENTUM 39.7

5Y EQUITY BETA 1.87

FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>

VIXCLS // CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) -0.40 r

Moderate inverse linkage (r = -0.40, R² = 15.9% over 260W): a +5.0 pt volatility spike in VIXCLS historically maps to -4.7% weekly return elasticity on AMD.

BAMLH0A0HYM2 // ICE BofA US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread (OAS) -0.29 r

Moderate inverse linkage (r = -0.29, R² = 8.5% over 156W): a +50 bps rise in BAMLH0A0HYM2 historically maps to -6.97% weekly return elasticity on AMD.

PAYEMS // Total Nonfarm Payrolls Employment -0.26 r

Moderate inverse linkage (r = -0.26, R² = 6.6% over 257W): a +1.0% expansion in PAYEMS historically maps to -45.63% weekly return elasticity on AMD.

CPIAUCSL // Consumer Price Index: Headline All Items (CPI-U) -0.19 r

Tactical inverse linkage (r = -0.19, R² = 3.7% over 257W): a +1.0% expansion in CPIAUCSL historically maps to -14.85% weekly return elasticity on AMD.

FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // AMDPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE

01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO

02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE

HEADLINE STRESS SCORE

50/100ELEVATED REGIME HEADWIND

PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE

BAMLH0A0HYM2 // -0.29 r

Latest: 3.26%

EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE

-3.92%

Implied Px: $485.00

EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE