ROARABLE // PRO
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MTZ // MasTec Inc.

DES <GO> NYSE CIK 0000015615 ↗
Industrials • Water Sewer Pipeline Comm & Power Line Construction
$177.82 ▼ -3.18 (-1.76%)
MKT CAP: $14.28B • VOL: 2.54M
MTZ // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 58/100 [D+] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE D+
RQD CONFIDENCE
58 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Sell — Weak Fundamentals / Trim
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
02 OPRA GEX + SEC 13F
Whale & Options Flow
10 / 20
NEUTRAL
NET GEX +0% • CALL SWEEP 52% • P/C 0.95
03 SEC FORM 4 (90D)
Insider Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
13 / 20
SOLID
TAILWIND • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
16 / 20
STRONG
20 BASE - 4 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE
ALERT

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SIG <GO> CROSS-FEED TRIANGULATION // PROPRIETARY ANOMALY ENGINE (1 ACTIVE ON MTZ)
ALL MARKET ANOMALIES <SIG>
▼ BEARISH // F-RATED EARNINGS MIRAGE // ACCRUAL WATCHSIFTER 02 // ACCRUAL & RECEIVABLES FORENSICS
SEVERITY: 90/100 Z-SCORE: +3.05σ

MTZ Accounting Gap: Net Income (+145.1%) Outpaced OCF (-51.3%) With +4.7% Working-Capital Build

CASH CONVERSION GAP
+196.5% (NI vs OCF)
RECEIVABLES / WC BLOAT
+4.7% VS REV
60D C-SUITE FORM 4 SALES
0 OPEN-MKT DUMPS
[GEEK DESK FORENSIC NOTE // SEC XBRL × FORM 4 CROSS-CHECK]
SEC EDGAR XBRL CompanyFacts10-K/10-Q Working Capital ScheduleSEC Form 4 Executive Sales

SEC EDGAR XBRL triangulation on MasTec Inc. (MTZ) exposes a +196.5% Cash Conversion Gap as YoY Net Income growth (+145.1%) diverged from Operating Cash Flow growth (-51.3%). Non-cash current assets and receivables expanded +4.7% relative to top-line revenue growth. Monitor upcoming 10-Q cash realization closely for accrual mean-reversion.

MTZ // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -52.78%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-10-30O $169.0H $189.0L $169.0C $186.1VOL 3.68M
RES: $193.2SUP: $156.7SMA50: $215.6SMA200: $302.4
$460.8$380.5$300.1$219.7$139.4RES $193.2SUP $156.7$186.12026-04-302026-06-152026-07-312026-09-162026-10-30
MTZ // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 51/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

MasTec Inc. (MTZ) exhibits 41.0% gross margins and 6.8% return on invested capital within Industrials (Water Sewer Pipeline Comm & Power Line Construction), balanced against a 16.1x enterprise multiple and 6.5% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 41.0% gross profitability converts into 3.4% operating margin and 6.8% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 6.8% // GM: 41.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +16.2% paired with -0.68% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +16.2% // FCF YLD: -0.68%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 3.41 and Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 3.41 // F-SCORE: 8/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 35.8x trailing P/E (30.1x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 35.8x // EV/EBITDA: 16.1x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±6.5% implied move with a 0.95 put/call ratio around $174.00 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±6.5% // P/C: 0.95
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Water Sewer Pipeline Comm & Power Line Construction require continuous execution to defend 2.8% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 2.8% // D/E: 0.85x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 30.1x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 0.87).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 35.8x
FORWARD P/E 30.1x
EV / EBITDA 16.1x
FCF YIELD -0.68%
GROSS MARGIN 41.0%
OPERATING MARGIN 3.4%
NET MARGIN 2.8%
ROIC % 6.8%
REV GROWTH YOY +16.2%
DILUTED EPS TTM $4.97
DEBT / EQUITY 0.85x
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 40.6
5Y EQUITY BETA 0.87
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // MTZPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $162.71
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for MTZ & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.
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