SMCI // Super Micro Computer Inc.

DES <GO> NASDAQ CIK 0001375365 ↗

Technology • Computer Manufacturing

$34.43 ▼ -1.38 (-3.85%)

MKT CAP: $22.62B • VOL: 25.31M

52W L $19 52W H $53

ALTMAN Z

2.24 GREY

PIOTROSKI

6 / 9

SMCI // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE

PRIOR: RQD 61/100 [C-] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED AS OF 2026-11-01

ROARABLE C-

RQD CONFIDENCE

61 / 100 +0D

5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS

E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+

Roarable Hold — Cautious Neutral

01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL

Forensic Fundamentals

14 / 20

SOLID

FCF +158.7% vs NI -9% • ROIC-WACC +0.3% • Z 2.24

02 OPRA GEX + SEC 13F

Whale & Options Flow

[LOCKED] FLAGGED

UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL

03 SEC FORM 4 (90D)

Insider Conviction

[LOCKED] FLAGGED

UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL

04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX

Macro Regime Fit

13 / 20

SOLID

TAILWIND • r(10Y)=-0.10 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=-0.25

05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT

Forensic 10-K Risk

13 / 20

SOLID

20 BASE - 7 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE

ALERT

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SIG <GO> CROSS-FEED TRIANGULATION // PROPRIETARY ANOMALY ENGINE (1 ACTIVE ON SMCI)

STAGE 2 DETERMINISTIC Z-SCORE + STAGE 3 GEEK DESK BRIEF ALL MARKET ANOMALIES <SIG>

▼ BEARISH // F-RATED EARNINGS MIRAGE // ACCRUAL WATCHSIFTER 02 // ACCRUAL & RECEIVABLES FORENSICS

SEVERITY: 94/100 Z-SCORE: +3.87σ

SMCI Flash: Cash Conversion Gap Hits -175.8% as Receivables Bloat Surges +153.4%

CASH CONVERSION GAP

-175.8% (NI vs OCF)

RECEIVABLES / WC BLOAT

+153.4% VS REV

60D C-SUITE FORM 4 SALES

0 OPEN-MKT DUMPS

[GEEK DESK FORENSIC NOTE // SEC XBRL × FORM 4 CROSS-CHECK]

SEC EDGAR XBRL CompanyFacts10-K/10-Q Working Capital ScheduleSEC Form 4 Executive Sales

Multi-feed analysis across SEC EDGAR XBRL filings flags an acute accounting distortion with a severe cash conversion gap of -175.8% between net income and operating cash flow. Working capital schedules indicate aggressive balance sheet strain, highlighted by receivables and working capital bloat outpacing revenue growth by +153.4%. Despite a 3.87 z-score signaling extreme accrual risk, SEC Form 4 filings confirm 0 open-mkt dumps in 60D C-suite sales.

SMCI // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +20.26%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT

2026-10-30O $32.59H $33.17L $31.33C $32.95VOL 38.25M

RES: $47.32SUP: $31.83SMA50: $38.23SMA200: $32.67

SMCI // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE

ACCUMULATE CONVICTION: 68/100

BEAR 0

100 BULL

Super Micro Computer Inc. (SMCI) exhibits 11.1% gross margins and 8.4% return on invested capital within Technology (Computer Manufacturing), balanced against a 20.1x enterprise multiple and 8.3% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)

01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 11.1% gross profitability converts into 5.7% operating margin and 8.4% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 8.4% // GM: 11.1%

02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +46.6% paired with 6.77% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +46.6% // FCF YLD: 6.77%

03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 2.24 and Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 2.24 // F-SCORE: 6/9

▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)

01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 21.6x trailing P/E (18.1x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 21.6x // EV/EBITDA: 20.1x

02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±8.3% implied move with a 1.08 put/call ratio around $34.00 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±8.3% // P/C: 1.08

03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Computer Manufacturing require continuous execution to defend 4.8% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 4.8% // D/E: 1.26x

KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 18.1x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.

MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.42).

FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>

FILER	SIDE	$ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>

UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>

STRIKE / EXP	TYPE	PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>

KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>

TRAILING P/E 21.6x

FORWARD P/E 18.1x

EV / EBITDA 20.1x

FCF YIELD 6.77%

GROSS MARGIN 11.1%

OPERATING MARGIN 5.7%

NET MARGIN 4.8%

ROIC % 8.4%

REV GROWTH YOY +46.6%

DILUTED EPS TTM $1.60

DEBT / EQUITY 1.26x

DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%

RSI-14 MOMENTUM 40.4

5Y EQUITY BETA 1.42

FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>

MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.

FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // SMCIPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE

01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO

02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE

HEADLINE STRESS SCORE

75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE

PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE

DFII10 // -0.61 r

Latest: 2.08%

EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE

-8.50%

Implied Px: $31.50

EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE

-$4,248

On $50,000 Notional

[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for SMCI & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

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