FSLY // Fastly Inc.

DES <GO> NASDAQ CIK 0001517413 ↗

Technology • Computer Software: Prepackaged Software

$25.64 ▼ -1.39 (-5.14%)

MKT CAP: $4.08B • VOL: 3.97M

52W L $8 52W H $35

ALTMAN Z

3.66 SAFE

PIOTROSKI

8 / 9

FSLY // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE

PRIOR: RQD 61/100 [C-] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED AS OF 2026-11-01

ROARABLE C-

RQD CONFIDENCE

61 / 100 +0D

5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS

E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+

Roarable Hold — Cautious Neutral

01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL

Forensic Fundamentals

12 / 20

NEUTRAL

FCF +200% vs NI +23% • ROIC-WACC -19% • Z 3.66

02 OPRA GEX + SEC 13F

Whale & Options Flow

[LOCKED] FLAGGED

UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL

03 SEC FORM 4 (90D)

Insider Conviction

[LOCKED] FLAGGED

UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL

04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX

Macro Regime Fit

14 / 20

SOLID

TAILWIND • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00

05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT

Forensic 10-K Risk

13 / 20

SOLID

20 BASE - 7 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE

ALERT

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SIG <GO> CROSS-FEED TRIANGULATION // PROPRIETARY ANOMALY ENGINE (1 ACTIVE ON FSLY)

STAGE 2 DETERMINISTIC Z-SCORE + STAGE 3 GEEK DESK BRIEF ALL MARKET ANOMALIES <SIG>

▼ BEARISH // F-RATED EARNINGS MIRAGE // ACCRUAL WATCHSIFTER 02 // ACCRUAL & RECEIVABLES FORENSICS

SEVERITY: 84/100 Z-SCORE: +2.55σ

FSLY Accounting Gap: Net Income (+23%) Outpaced OCF (+220%) With +97% Working-Capital Build

CASH CONVERSION GAP

-197.0% (NI vs OCF)

RECEIVABLES / WC BLOAT

+97.0% VS REV

60D C-SUITE FORM 4 SALES

0 OPEN-MKT DUMPS

[GEEK DESK FORENSIC NOTE // SEC XBRL × FORM 4 CROSS-CHECK]

SEC EDGAR XBRL CompanyFacts10-K/10-Q Working Capital ScheduleSEC Form 4 Executive Sales

SEC EDGAR XBRL triangulation on Fastly Inc. (FSLY) exposes a +-197.0% Cash Conversion Gap as YoY Net Income growth (+23.0%) diverged from Operating Cash Flow growth (+220.0%). Non-cash current assets and receivables expanded +97.0% relative to top-line revenue growth. Monitor upcoming 10-Q cash realization closely for accrual mean-reversion.

FSLY // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -8.48%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT

2026-10-30O $24.46H $24.46L $22.33C $23.11VOL 5.97M

RES: $31.93SUP: $22.00SMA50: $24.46SMA200: $21.46

FSLY // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE

UNDERWEIGHT CONVICTION: 43/100

BEAR 0

100 BULL

Fastly Inc. (FSLY) exhibits 57.1% gross margins and -8.8% return on invested capital within Technology (Computer Software: Prepackaged Software), balanced against a 24.0x enterprise multiple and 8.3% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)

01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 57.1% gross profitability converts into -19.1% operating margin and -8.8% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: -8.8% // GM: 57.1%

02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +20.9% paired with 1.61% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +20.9% // FCF YLD: 1.61%

03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 3.66 and Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 3.66 // F-SCORE: 8/9

▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)

01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 24.0x trailing P/E (23.0x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 24.0x // EV/EBITDA: —

02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±8.3% implied move with a 0.96 put/call ratio around $25.00 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±8.3% // P/C: 0.96

03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Computer Software: Prepackaged Software require continuous execution to defend -19.5% net margins.

NET MARGIN: -19.5% // D/E: 0.35x

KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 23.0x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.

MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.42).

FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>

FILER	SIDE	$ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>

UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>

STRIKE / EXP	TYPE	PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>

KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>

TRAILING P/E —

FORWARD P/E 23.0x

EV / EBITDA —

FCF YIELD 1.61%

GROSS MARGIN 57.1%

OPERATING MARGIN -19.1%

NET MARGIN -19.5%

ROIC % -8.8%

REV GROWTH YOY +20.9%

DILUTED EPS TTM $-0.76

DEBT / EQUITY 0.35x

DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%

RSI-14 MOMENTUM 44.8

5Y EQUITY BETA 1.42

FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>

MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.

FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // FSLYPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE

01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO

02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE

HEADLINE STRESS SCORE

75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE

PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE

DFII10 // -0.61 r

Latest: 2.08%

EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE

-8.50%

Implied Px: $23.46

EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE

-$4,248

On $50,000 Notional

[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for FSLY & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

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