ROARABLE // PRO
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ROAR ▸

USAR // USA Rare Earth Inc.

DES <GO> NASDAQ CIK 0001970622 ↗
Materials • Metal Mining
$10.52 ▲ +0.04 (+0.38%)
MKT CAP: $3.95B • VOL: 10.61M
USAR // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 60/100 [C-] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE C-
RQD CONFIDENCE
60 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Hold — Cautious Neutral
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
02 OPRA GEX + SEC 13F
Whale & Options Flow
10 / 20
NEUTRAL
NET GEX +0% • CALL SWEEP 52% • P/C 0.90
03 SEC FORM 4 (90D)
Insider Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
14 / 20
SOLID
TAILWIND • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
16 / 20
STRONG
20 BASE - 4 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE
ALERT

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USAR // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -62.96%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-10-30O $9.88H $10.04L $9.19C $9.62VOL 15.83M
RES: $11.32SUP: $8.63SMA50: $14.30SMA200: $18.90
$34.47$27.54$20.61$13.67$6.74RES $11.32SUP $8.63$9.622026-04-302026-06-152026-07-312026-09-162026-10-30
USAR // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
UNDERWEIGHT CONVICTION: 31/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

USA Rare Earth Inc. (USAR) exhibits 11.9% gross margins and -14.9% return on invested capital within Materials (Metal Mining), balanced against a 24.0x enterprise multiple and 6.6% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 11.9% gross profitability converts into -60.0% operating margin and -14.9% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: -14.9% // GM: 11.9%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +6.6% paired with -1.24% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +6.6% // FCF YLD: -1.24%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 11.88 and Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 11.88 // F-SCORE: 4/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 24.0x trailing P/E (29.0x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 24.0x // EV/EBITDA: —
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±6.6% implied move with a 0.90 put/call ratio around $10.00 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±6.6% // P/C: 0.90
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Metal Mining require continuous execution to defend -60.0% net margins.

NET MARGIN: -60.0% // D/E: 0.16x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 29.0x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 0.91).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E —
FORWARD P/E 29.0x
EV / EBITDA —
FCF YIELD -1.24%
GROSS MARGIN 11.9%
OPERATING MARGIN -60.0%
NET MARGIN -60.0%
ROIC % -14.9%
REV GROWTH YOY +6.6%
DILUTED EPS TTM $-0.79
DEBT / EQUITY 0.16x
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 33.3
5Y EQUITY BETA 0.91
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // USARPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $9.63
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for USAR & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>