PACS // PACS Group Inc.

DES <GO> NYSE CIK 0002001184 ↗

Health Care • Hospital/Nursing Management

$49.68 ▲ +0.62 (+1.26%)

MKT CAP: $7.87B • VOL: 896.5K

52W L $10 52W H $50

ALTMAN Z

2.24 GREY

PIOTROSKI

9 / 9

PACS // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE

▼ DOWNGRADE // C+ (RQD 66) -> C (RQD 65) AS OF 2026-11-01

ROARABLE C

RQD CONFIDENCE

65 / 100 -1D

5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS

E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+

Roarable Hold — Fair / Balanced Risk-Reward

01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL

Forensic Fundamentals

13 / 20

SOLID

FCF -9.4% vs NI +200% • ROIC-WACC +15.8% • Z 2.24

02 OPRA GEX + SEC 13F

Whale & Options Flow

[LOCKED] FLAGGED

UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL

03 SEC FORM 4 (90D)

Insider Conviction

[LOCKED] FLAGGED

UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL

04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX

Macro Regime Fit

14 / 20

SOLID

TAILWIND • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00

05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT

Forensic 10-K Risk

16 / 20

STRONG

20 BASE - 4 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE

ALERT

Why did PACS's Whale & Options Flow & Insider Conviction sub-score just flash a warning? Enter your email to unlock the full 5-Pillar Rating Breakdown + get instant alerts whenever PACS is Upgraded or Downgraded.

SIG <GO> CROSS-FEED TRIANGULATION // PROPRIETARY ANOMALY ENGINE (1 ACTIVE ON PACS)

STAGE 2 DETERMINISTIC Z-SCORE + STAGE 3 GEEK DESK BRIEF ALL MARKET ANOMALIES <SIG>

▼ BEARISH // F-RATED EARNINGS MIRAGE // ACCRUAL WATCHSIFTER 02 // ACCRUAL & RECEIVABLES FORENSICS

SEVERITY: 91/100 Z-SCORE: +3.13σ

PACS Accounting Gap: Net Income (+220%) Outpaced OCF (+10%) With +-17.6% Working-Capital Build

CASH CONVERSION GAP

+210.0% (NI vs OCF)

RECEIVABLES / WC BLOAT

-17.6% VS REV

60D C-SUITE FORM 4 SALES

0 OPEN-MKT DUMPS

[GEEK DESK FORENSIC NOTE // SEC XBRL × FORM 4 CROSS-CHECK]

SEC EDGAR XBRL CompanyFacts10-K/10-Q Working Capital ScheduleSEC Form 4 Executive Sales

SEC EDGAR XBRL triangulation on PACS Group Inc. (PACS) exposes a +210.0% Cash Conversion Gap as YoY Net Income growth (+220.0%) diverged from Operating Cash Flow growth (+10.0%). Non-cash current assets and receivables expanded -17.6% relative to top-line revenue growth. Monitor upcoming 10-Q cash realization closely for accrual mean-reversion.

PACS // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +42.50%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $49.38H $49.95L $47.73C $47.81VOL 591.2K

RES: $50.41SUP: $41.30SMA50: $44.18SMA200: $39.71

PACS // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE

ACCUMULATE CONVICTION: 68/100

BEAR 0

100 BULL

PACS Group Inc. (PACS) exhibits 41.0% gross margins and 24.6% return on invested capital within Health Care (Hospital/Nursing Management), balanced against a 15.5x enterprise multiple and 6.7% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)

01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 41.0% gross profitability converts into 5.9% operating margin and 24.6% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 24.6% // GM: 41.0%

02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +29.4% paired with 2.11% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +29.4% // FCF YLD: 2.11%

03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 2.24 and Piotroski F-Score of 9/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 2.24 // F-SCORE: 9/9

▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)

01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 41.1x trailing P/E (34.5x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 41.1x // EV/EBITDA: 15.5x

02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±6.7% implied move with a 0.73 put/call ratio around $49.00 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±6.7% // P/C: 0.73

03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Hospital/Nursing Management require continuous execution to defend 3.6% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 3.6% // D/E: 0.26x

KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 34.5x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.

MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 0.95).

FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>

FILER	SIDE	$ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>

UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>

STRIKE / EXP	TYPE	PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>

KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>

TRAILING P/E 41.1x

FORWARD P/E 34.5x

EV / EBITDA 15.5x

FCF YIELD 2.11%

GROSS MARGIN 41.0%

OPERATING MARGIN 5.9%

NET MARGIN 3.6%

ROIC % 24.6%

REV GROWTH YOY +29.4%

DILUTED EPS TTM $1.21

DEBT / EQUITY 0.26x

DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%

RSI-14 MOMENTUM 57.6

5Y EQUITY BETA 0.95

FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>

MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.

FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // PACSPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE

01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO

02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE

HEADLINE STRESS SCORE

75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE

PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE

DFII10 // -0.61 r

Latest: 2.08%

EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE

-8.50%

Implied Px: $45.46

EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE

-$4,248

On $50,000 Notional

[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for PACS & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>

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