TKO // TKO Group Holdings Inc.

DES <GO> NYSE CIK 0001973266 ↗

Consumer Discretionary • Services-Misc. Amusement & Recreation

$178.77 ▲ +4.89 (+2.81%)

MKT CAP: $33.84B • VOL: 966.3K

52W L $170 52W H $227

ALTMAN Z

3.70 SAFE

PIOTROSKI

8 / 9

TKO // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE

PRIOR: RQD 67/100 [C+] (-1 PT) • UNCHANGED AS OF 2026-11-01

ROARABLE C+

RQD CONFIDENCE

66 / 100 -1D

5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS

E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+

Roarable Hold — Upper Neutral / Watch for Breakout

01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL

Forensic Fundamentals

16 / 20

STRONG

FCF +192.8% vs NI +200% • ROIC-WACC +2.2% • Z 3.7

02 OPRA GEX + SEC 13F

Whale & Options Flow

[LOCKED] FLAGGED

UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL

03 SEC FORM 4 (90D)

Insider Conviction

[LOCKED] FLAGGED

UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL

04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX

Macro Regime Fit

15 / 20

SOLID

TAILWIND • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00

05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT

Forensic 10-K Risk

13 / 20

SOLID

20 BASE - 7 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE

ALERT

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SIG <GO> CROSS-FEED TRIANGULATION // PROPRIETARY ANOMALY ENGINE (1 ACTIVE ON TKO)

STAGE 2 DETERMINISTIC Z-SCORE + STAGE 3 GEEK DESK BRIEF ALL MARKET ANOMALIES <SIG>

▼ BEARISH // F-RATED EARNINGS MIRAGE // ACCRUAL WATCHSIFTER 02 // ACCRUAL & RECEIVABLES FORENSICS

SEVERITY: 92/100 Z-SCORE: +3.23σ

TKO Accounting Gap: Net Income (+220%) Outpaced OCF (+119.4%) With +67.9% Working-Capital Build

CASH CONVERSION GAP

+100.6% (NI vs OCF)

RECEIVABLES / WC BLOAT

+67.9% VS REV

60D C-SUITE FORM 4 SALES

0 OPEN-MKT DUMPS

[GEEK DESK FORENSIC NOTE // SEC XBRL × FORM 4 CROSS-CHECK]

SEC EDGAR XBRL CompanyFacts10-K/10-Q Working Capital ScheduleSEC Form 4 Executive Sales

SEC EDGAR XBRL triangulation on TKO Group Holdings Inc. (TKO) exposes a +100.6% Cash Conversion Gap as YoY Net Income growth (+220.0%) diverged from Operating Cash Flow growth (+119.4%). Non-cash current assets and receivables expanded +67.9% relative to top-line revenue growth. Monitor upcoming 10-Q cash realization closely for accrual mean-reversion.

TKO // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -2.91%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE

2026-10-30O $179.9H $182.0L $179.0C $180.7VOL 1.00M

RES: $184.3SUP: $168.5SMA50: $182.8SMA200: $193.3

TKO // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE

UNDERWEIGHT CONVICTION: 35/100

BEAR 0

100 BULL

TKO Group Holdings Inc. (TKO) exhibits 41.0% gross margins and 9.9% return on invested capital within Consumer Discretionary (Services-Misc. Amusement & Recreation), balanced against a 36.1x enterprise multiple and 7.2% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)

01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 41.0% gross profitability converts into 17.6% operating margin and 9.9% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 9.9% // GM: 41.0%

02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of -3.1% paired with 3.17% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: -3.1% // FCF YLD: 3.17%

03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 3.70 and Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 3.70 // F-SCORE: 8/9

▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)

01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 61.9x trailing P/E (57.6x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 61.9x // EV/EBITDA: 36.1x

02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±7.2% implied move with a 0.64 put/call ratio around $175.00 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±7.2% // P/C: 0.64

03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Services-Misc. Amusement & Recreation require continuous execution to defend 11.5% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 11.5% // D/E: 1.00x

KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 57.6x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.

MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.10).

FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>

FILER	SIDE	$ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>

UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>

STRIKE / EXP	TYPE	PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>

KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>

TRAILING P/E 61.9x

FORWARD P/E 57.6x

EV / EBITDA 36.1x

FCF YIELD 3.17%

GROSS MARGIN 41.0%

OPERATING MARGIN 17.6%

NET MARGIN 11.5%

ROIC % 9.9%

REV GROWTH YOY -3.1%

DILUTED EPS TTM $2.89

DEBT / EQUITY 1.00x

DIVIDEND YIELD 0.55%

RSI-14 MOMENTUM 54.0

5Y EQUITY BETA 1.10

FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>

MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.

FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // TKOPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE

01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO

02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE

HEADLINE STRESS SCORE

75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE

PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE

DFII10 // -0.61 r

Latest: 2.08%

EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE

-8.50%

Implied Px: $163.58

EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE

-$4,248

On $50,000 Notional

[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for TKO & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

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