SBUX // Starbucks Corporation

DES <GO> NASDAQ CIK 0000829224 ↗

Consumer Discretionary • Restaurants

$105.51 ▲ +2.31 (+2.24%)

MKT CAP: $120.28B • VOL: 11.12M

52W L $78 52W H $111

ALTMAN Z

2.87 GREY

PIOTROSKI

7 / 9

SBUX // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE

PRIOR: RQD 68/100 [C+] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED AS OF 2026-11-01

ROARABLE C+

RQD CONFIDENCE

68 / 100 +0D

5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS

E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+

Roarable Hold — Upper Neutral / Watch for Breakout

01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL

Forensic Fundamentals

17 / 20

STRONG

FCF -26.4% vs NI -50.6% • ROIC-WACC +16.6% • Z 2.87

02 OPRA GEX + SEC 13F

Whale & Options Flow

[LOCKED] FLAGGED

UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL

03 SEC FORM 4 (90D)

Insider Conviction

[LOCKED] FLAGGED

UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL

04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX

Macro Regime Fit

16 / 20

STRONG

TAILWIND • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00

05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT

Forensic 10-K Risk

13 / 20

SOLID

20 BASE - 7 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE

ALERT

Why did SBUX's Whale & Options Flow & Insider Conviction sub-score just flash a warning? Enter your email to unlock the full 5-Pillar Rating Breakdown + get instant alerts whenever SBUX is Upgraded or Downgraded.

SIG <GO> CROSS-FEED TRIANGULATION // PROPRIETARY ANOMALY ENGINE (1 ACTIVE ON SBUX)

STAGE 2 DETERMINISTIC Z-SCORE + STAGE 3 GEEK DESK BRIEF ALL MARKET ANOMALIES <SIG>

▼ BEARISH // F-RATED EARNINGS MIRAGE // ACCRUAL WATCHSIFTER 02 // ACCRUAL & RECEIVABLES FORENSICS

SEVERITY: 91/100 Z-SCORE: +3.13σ

SBUX Accounting Gap: Net Income (-50.6%) Outpaced OCF (-22.1%) With +121.7% Working-Capital Build

CASH CONVERSION GAP

-28.5% (NI vs OCF)

RECEIVABLES / WC BLOAT

+121.7% VS REV

60D C-SUITE FORM 4 SALES

0 OPEN-MKT DUMPS

[GEEK DESK FORENSIC NOTE // SEC XBRL × FORM 4 CROSS-CHECK]

SEC EDGAR XBRL CompanyFacts10-K/10-Q Working Capital ScheduleSEC Form 4 Executive Sales

SEC EDGAR XBRL triangulation on Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) exposes a +-28.5% Cash Conversion Gap as YoY Net Income growth (-50.6%) diverged from Operating Cash Flow growth (-22.1%). Non-cash current assets and receivables expanded +121.7% relative to top-line revenue growth. Monitor upcoming 10-Q cash realization closely for accrual mean-reversion.

SBUX // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -1.58%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-10-30O $105.7H $106.3L $102.2C $103.7VOL 14.22M

RES: $112.0SUP: $86.18SMA50: $99.26SMA200: $99.85

SBUX // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE

NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 46/100

BEAR 0

100 BULL

Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) exhibits 41.0% gross margins and 24.1% return on invested capital within Consumer Discretionary (Restaurants), balanced against a 26.8x enterprise multiple and 6.7% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)

01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 41.0% gross profitability converts into 7.9% operating margin and 24.1% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 24.1% // GM: 41.0%

02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +2.8% paired with 2.03% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +2.8% // FCF YLD: 2.03%

03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 2.87 and Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 2.87 // F-SCORE: 7/9

▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)

01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 64.8x trailing P/E (60.3x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 64.8x // EV/EBITDA: 26.8x

02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±6.7% implied move with a 0.80 put/call ratio around $103.00 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±6.7% // P/C: 0.80

03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Restaurants require continuous execution to defend 5.0% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 5.0% // D/E: 0.85x

KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 60.3x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.

MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 0.94).

FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>

FILER	SIDE	$ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>

UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>

STRIKE / EXP	TYPE	PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>

KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>

TRAILING P/E 64.8x

FORWARD P/E 60.3x

EV / EBITDA 26.8x

FCF YIELD 2.03%

GROSS MARGIN 41.0%

OPERATING MARGIN 7.9%

NET MARGIN 5.0%

ROIC % 24.1%

REV GROWTH YOY +2.8%

DILUTED EPS TTM $1.63

DEBT / EQUITY 0.85x

DIVIDEND YIELD 2.30%

RSI-14 MOMENTUM 63.4

5Y EQUITY BETA 0.94

FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>

MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.

FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // SBUXPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE

01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO

02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE

HEADLINE STRESS SCORE

75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE

PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE

DFII10 // -0.61 r

Latest: 2.08%

EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE

-8.50%

Implied Px: $96.55

EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE

-$4,248

On $50,000 Notional

[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for SBUX & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

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