STZ // Constellation Brands Inc.

DES <GO> NYSE CIK 0000016918 ↗

Consumer Staples • Beverages (Production/Distribution)

$130.35 ▲ +0.55 (+0.42%)

MKT CAP: $22.06B • VOL: 1.60M

52W L $111 52W H $169

ALTMAN Z

2.72 GREY

PIOTROSKI

7 / 9

STZ // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE

PRIOR: RQD 66/100 [C+] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED AS OF 2026-11-01

ROARABLE C+

RQD CONFIDENCE

66 / 100 +0D

5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS

E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+

Roarable Hold — Upper Neutral / Watch for Breakout

01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL

Forensic Fundamentals

12 / 20

NEUTRAL

FCF -7.4% vs NI +200% • ROIC-WACC +4.7% • Z 2.72

02 OPRA GEX + SEC 13F

Whale & Options Flow

[LOCKED] FLAGGED

UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL

03 SEC FORM 4 (90D)

Insider Conviction

[LOCKED] FLAGGED

UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL

04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX

Macro Regime Fit

16 / 20

STRONG

TAILWIND • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00

05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT

Forensic 10-K Risk

16 / 20

STRONG

20 BASE - 4 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE

ALERT

Why did STZ's Whale & Options Flow & Insider Conviction sub-score just flash a warning? Enter your email to unlock the full 5-Pillar Rating Breakdown + get instant alerts whenever STZ is Upgraded or Downgraded.

SIG <GO> CROSS-FEED TRIANGULATION // PROPRIETARY ANOMALY ENGINE (1 ACTIVE ON STZ)

STAGE 2 DETERMINISTIC Z-SCORE + STAGE 3 GEEK DESK BRIEF ALL MARKET ANOMALIES <SIG>

▼ BEARISH // F-RATED EARNINGS MIRAGE // ACCRUAL WATCHSIFTER 02 // ACCRUAL & RECEIVABLES FORENSICS

SEVERITY: 94/100 Z-SCORE: +3.47σ

STZ Accounting Gap: Net Income (+220%) Outpaced OCF (-15.3%) With +-12% Working-Capital Build

CASH CONVERSION GAP

+235.3% (NI vs OCF)

RECEIVABLES / WC BLOAT

-12.0% VS REV

60D C-SUITE FORM 4 SALES

0 OPEN-MKT DUMPS

[GEEK DESK FORENSIC NOTE // SEC XBRL × FORM 4 CROSS-CHECK]

SEC EDGAR XBRL CompanyFacts10-K/10-Q Working Capital ScheduleSEC Form 4 Executive Sales

SEC EDGAR XBRL triangulation on Constellation Brands Inc. (STZ) exposes a +235.3% Cash Conversion Gap as YoY Net Income growth (+220.0%) diverged from Operating Cash Flow growth (-15.3%). Non-cash current assets and receivables expanded -12.0% relative to top-line revenue growth. Monitor upcoming 10-Q cash realization closely for accrual mean-reversion.

STZ // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -13.57%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-10-30O $132.4H $135.4L $132.0C $135.3VOL 3.42M

RES: $140.0SUP: $105.1SMA50: $125.4SMA200: $141.8

STZ // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE

UNDERWEIGHT CONVICTION: 42/100

BEAR 0

100 BULL

Constellation Brands Inc. (STZ) exhibits 51.6% gross margins and 12.0% return on invested capital within Consumer Staples (Beverages (Production/Distribution)), balanced against a 9.3x enterprise multiple and 7.2% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)

01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 51.6% gross profitability converts into 29.8% operating margin and 12.0% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 12.0% // GM: 51.6%

02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of -10.5% paired with 8.13% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: -10.5% // FCF YLD: 8.13%

03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 2.72 and Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 2.72 // F-SCORE: 7/9

▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)

01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 13.1x trailing P/E (12.2x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 13.1x // EV/EBITDA: 9.3x

02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±7.2% implied move with a 0.84 put/call ratio around $128.00 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±7.2% // P/C: 0.84

03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Beverages (Production/Distribution) require continuous execution to defend 18.5% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 18.5% // D/E: 1.33x

KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 12.2x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.

MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.09).

FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>

FILER	SIDE	$ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>

UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>

STRIKE / EXP	TYPE	PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>

KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>

TRAILING P/E 13.1x

FORWARD P/E 12.2x

EV / EBITDA 9.3x

FCF YIELD 8.13%

GROSS MARGIN 51.6%

OPERATING MARGIN 29.8%

NET MARGIN 18.5%

ROIC % 12.0%

REV GROWTH YOY -10.5%

DILUTED EPS TTM $9.97

DEBT / EQUITY 1.33x

DIVIDEND YIELD 3.25%

RSI-14 MOMENTUM 62.9

5Y EQUITY BETA 1.09

FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>

MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.

FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // STZPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE

01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO

02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE

HEADLINE STRESS SCORE

75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE

PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE

DFII10 // -0.61 r

Latest: 2.08%

EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE

-8.50%

Implied Px: $119.27

EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE

-$4,248

On $50,000 Notional

[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for STZ & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

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