ROARABLE // PRO
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TPL // Texas Pacific Land Corporation

DES <GO> NYSE CIK 0001811074 ↗
Energy • Oil & Gas Production
$327.96 ▼ -3.97 (-1.20%)
MKT CAP: $22.62B • VOL: 335.3K
TPL // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 70/100 [B-] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE B-
RQD CONFIDENCE
70 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Buy — Sound Institutional Accumulation
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
19 / 20
STRONG
FCF +11.1% vs NI +6% • ROIC-WACC +16.1% • Z 26
02 OPRA GEX + SEC 13F
Whale & Options Flow
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
03 SEC FORM 4 (90D)
Insider Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
14 / 20
SOLID
TAILWIND • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
15 / 20
SOLID
20 BASE - 5 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE
ALERT

Why did TPL's Whale & Options Flow & Insider Conviction sub-score just flash a warning? Enter your email to unlock the full 5-Pillar Rating Breakdown + get instant alerts whenever TPL is Upgraded or Downgraded.

TPL // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -25.24%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-10-30O $326.2H $333.1L $326.0C $331.7VOL 480.6K
RES: $356.1SUP: $317.9SMA50: $353.3SMA200: $401.7
$493.3$447.6$402.0$356.3$310.6RES $356.1SUP $317.9$331.72026-04-302026-06-152026-07-312026-09-162026-10-30
TPL // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 59/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL) exhibits 41.0% gross margins and 25.9% return on invested capital within Energy (Oil & Gas Production), balanced against a 36.2x enterprise multiple and 7.0% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 41.0% gross profitability converts into 74.2% operating margin and 25.9% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 25.9% // GM: 41.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +13.1% paired with 2.25% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +13.1% // FCF YLD: 2.25%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 26.00 and Piotroski F-Score of 9/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 26.00 // F-SCORE: 9/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 47.0x trailing P/E (39.5x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 47.0x // EV/EBITDA: 36.2x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±7.0% implied move with a 0.90 put/call ratio around $321.00 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±7.0% // P/C: 0.90
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Oil & Gas Production require continuous execution to defend 60.3% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 60.3% // D/E: 0.05x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 39.5x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.02).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 47.0x
FORWARD P/E 39.5x
EV / EBITDA 36.2x
FCF YIELD 2.25%
GROSS MARGIN 41.0%
OPERATING MARGIN 74.2%
NET MARGIN 60.3%
ROIC % 25.9%
REV GROWTH YOY +13.1%
DILUTED EPS TTM $6.98
DEBT / EQUITY 0.05x
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.65%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 41.7
5Y EQUITY BETA 1.02
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // TPLPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $300.09
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for TPL & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>