ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

AOS // A.O. Smith Corporation

DES <GO> NYSE CIK 0000091142 ↗
Consumer Discretionary • Consumer Electronics/Appliances
$63.49 ▲ +2.63 (+4.32%)
MKT CAP: $8.63B • VOL: 3.16M
AOS // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 75/100 [B] (-1 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE B
RQD CONFIDENCE
74 / 100 -1D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Buy — Good Risk/Reward
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
19 / 20
STRONG
FCF +8.4% vs NI +2.4% • ROIC-WACC +21.8% • Z 7.94
02 OPRA GEX + SEC 13F
Whale & Options Flow
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
03 SEC FORM 4 (90D)
Insider Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
17 / 20
STRONG
TAILWIND • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
16 / 20
STRONG
20 BASE - 4 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE
ALERT

Why did AOS's Whale & Options Flow & Insider Conviction sub-score just flash a warning? Enter your email to unlock the full 5-Pillar Rating Breakdown + get instant alerts whenever AOS is Upgraded or Downgraded.

AOS // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +1.99%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-10-30O $63.51H $64.02L $62.68C $63.07VOL 2.50M
RES: $65.40SUP: $53.50SMA50: $58.97SMA200: $63.43
$70.93$66.38$61.84$57.29$52.75RES $65.40SUP $53.50$63.072026-04-302026-06-152026-07-312026-09-162026-10-30
AOS // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
ACCUMULATE CONVICTION: 61/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

A.O. Smith Corporation (AOS) exhibits 38.8% gross margins and 32.0% return on invested capital within Consumer Discretionary (Consumer Electronics/Appliances), balanced against a 9.8x enterprise multiple and 7.3% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 38.8% gross profitability converts into 19.0% operating margin and 32.0% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 32.0% // GM: 38.8%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +0.3% paired with 5.15% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +0.3% // FCF YLD: 5.15%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 7.94 and Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 7.94 // F-SCORE: 8/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 15.8x trailing P/E (14.7x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 15.8x // EV/EBITDA: 9.8x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±7.3% implied move with a 0.71 put/call ratio around $62.00 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±7.3% // P/C: 0.71
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Consumer Electronics/Appliances require continuous execution to defend 14.3% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 14.3% // D/E: 0.06x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 14.7x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.11).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 15.8x
FORWARD P/E 14.7x
EV / EBITDA 9.8x
FCF YIELD 5.15%
GROSS MARGIN 38.8%
OPERATING MARGIN 19.0%
NET MARGIN 14.3%
ROIC % 32.0%
REV GROWTH YOY +0.3%
DILUTED EPS TTM $4.02
DEBT / EQUITY 0.06x
DIVIDEND YIELD 2.27%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 64.9
5Y EQUITY BETA 1.11
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // AOSPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $58.10
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for AOS & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>