ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

GDX // VanEck Gold Miners ETF

DES <GO> NYSE
ETF / Index • Senior Gold Mining Equities • SIC 6726
$77.09 ▼ -4.24 (-5.21%)
MKT CAP: $14.00B • VOL: 35.52M
GDX // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 61/100 [C-] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE C-
RQD CONFIDENCE
61 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Hold — Cautious Neutral
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
14 / 20
SOLID
FCF +0% vs NI +0% • ROIC-WACC +11.1% • Z 4.8
02 OPRA GEX + SEC 13F
Whale & Options Flow
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
03 SEC FORM 4 (90D)
Insider Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
10 / 20
NEUTRAL
NEUTRAL • r(10Y)=-0.17 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=-0.14
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
16 / 20
STRONG
20 BASE - 4 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE
ALERT

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GDX // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -12.69%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-10-30O $78.24H $78.32L $75.83C $77.09VOL 35.73M
RES: $117.7SUP: $58.23SMA50: $91.64SMA200: $90.61
$108.2$97.77$87.35$76.93$66.51RES $117.7SUP $58.23$77.092026-04-302026-06-152026-07-312026-09-162026-10-30
GDX // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 57/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) exhibits 58.0% gross margins and 19.5% return on invested capital within ETF / Index (Senior Gold Mining Equities), balanced against a 22.4x enterprise multiple and 3.2% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 58.0% gross profitability converts into 24.0% operating margin and 19.5% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 19.5% // GM: 58.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +9.2% paired with 3.40% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +9.2% // FCF YLD: 3.40%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 4.80 and Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 4.80 // F-SCORE: 7/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 22.4x trailing P/E (19.8x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 22.4x // EV/EBITDA: —
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±3.2% implied move with a 1.08 put/call ratio around $77.00 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±3.2% // P/C: 1.08
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Senior Gold Mining Equities require continuous execution to defend 18.5% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 18.5% // D/E: 0.45x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 19.8x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.00).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 22.4x
FORWARD P/E 19.8x
EV / EBITDA —
FCF YIELD 3.40%
GROSS MARGIN 58.0%
OPERATING MARGIN 24.0%
NET MARGIN 18.5%
ROIC % 19.5%
REV GROWTH YOY +9.2%
DILUTED EPS TTM $3.44
DEBT / EQUITY 0.45x
DIVIDEND YIELD 1.30%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 33.3
5Y EQUITY BETA 1.00
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // GDXPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $70.54
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for GDX & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>