NFG // National Fuel Gas Company

DES <GO> NYSE CIK 0000070145 ↗

Energy • Oil/Gas Transmission

$79.36 ▼ -0.85 (-1.06%)

MKT CAP: $7.54B • VOL: 996.3K

52W L $75 52W H $97

ALTMAN Z

1.83 GREY

PIOTROSKI

8 / 9

NFG // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE

PRIOR: RQD 59/100 [C-] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED AS OF 2026-11-01

ROARABLE C-

RQD CONFIDENCE

59 / 100 +0D

5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS

E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+

Roarable Hold — Cautious Neutral

01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL

Forensic Fundamentals

[LOCKED] FLAGGED

UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL

02 OPRA GEX + SEC 13F

Whale & Options Flow

10 / 20

NEUTRAL

NET GEX +0% • CALL SWEEP 52% • P/C 0.84

03 SEC FORM 4 (90D)

Insider Conviction

[LOCKED] FLAGGED

UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL

04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX

Macro Regime Fit

13 / 20

SOLID

TAILWIND • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00

05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT

Forensic 10-K Risk

16 / 20

STRONG

20 BASE - 4 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE

ALERT

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SIG <GO> CROSS-FEED TRIANGULATION // PROPRIETARY ANOMALY ENGINE (1 ACTIVE ON NFG)

STAGE 2 DETERMINISTIC Z-SCORE + STAGE 3 GEEK DESK BRIEF ALL MARKET ANOMALIES <SIG>

▼ BEARISH // F-RATED EARNINGS MIRAGE // ACCRUAL WATCHSIFTER 02 // ACCRUAL & RECEIVABLES FORENSICS

SEVERITY: 92/100 Z-SCORE: +3.22σ

NFG Accounting Gap: Net Income (+220%) Outpaced OCF (+3.2%) With +-12.8% Working-Capital Build

CASH CONVERSION GAP

+216.8% (NI vs OCF)

RECEIVABLES / WC BLOAT

-12.8% VS REV

60D C-SUITE FORM 4 SALES

0 OPEN-MKT DUMPS

[GEEK DESK FORENSIC NOTE // SEC XBRL × FORM 4 CROSS-CHECK]

SEC EDGAR XBRL CompanyFacts10-K/10-Q Working Capital ScheduleSEC Form 4 Executive Sales

SEC EDGAR XBRL triangulation on National Fuel Gas Company (NFG) exposes a +216.8% Cash Conversion Gap as YoY Net Income growth (+220.0%) diverged from Operating Cash Flow growth (+3.2%). Non-cash current assets and receivables expanded -12.8% relative to top-line revenue growth. Monitor upcoming 10-Q cash realization closely for accrual mean-reversion.

NFG // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -5.72%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $80.09H $80.09L $79.18C $79.55VOL 1.02M

RES: $81.80SUP: $73.08SMA50: $80.31SMA200: $83.37

NFG // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE

ACCUMULATE CONVICTION: 60/100

BEAR 0

100 BULL

National Fuel Gas Company (NFG) exhibits 90.4% gross margins and 9.7% return on invested capital within Energy (Oil/Gas Transmission), balanced against a 5.9x enterprise multiple and 7.4% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)

01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 90.4% gross profitability converts into 36.7% operating margin and 9.7% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 9.7% // GM: 90.4%

02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +30.0% paired with 2.48% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +30.0% // FCF YLD: 2.48%

03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 1.83 and Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 1.83 // F-SCORE: 8/9

▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)

01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 14.5x trailing P/E (12.2x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 14.5x // EV/EBITDA: 5.9x

02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±7.4% implied move with a 0.84 put/call ratio around $78.00 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±7.4% // P/C: 0.84

03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Oil/Gas Transmission require continuous execution to defend 23.4% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 23.4% // D/E: 0.44x

KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 12.2x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.

MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.15).

FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>

FILER	SIDE	$ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>

UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>

STRIKE / EXP	TYPE	PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>

KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>

TRAILING P/E 14.5x

FORWARD P/E 12.2x

EV / EBITDA 5.9x

FCF YIELD 2.48%

GROSS MARGIN 90.4%

OPERATING MARGIN 36.7%

NET MARGIN 23.4%

ROIC % 9.7%

REV GROWTH YOY +30.0%

DILUTED EPS TTM $5.46

DEBT / EQUITY 0.44x

DIVIDEND YIELD 2.50%

RSI-14 MOMENTUM 49.2

5Y EQUITY BETA 1.15

FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>

MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.

FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // NFGPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE

01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO

02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE

HEADLINE STRESS SCORE

75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE

PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE

DFII10 // -0.61 r

Latest: 2.08%

EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE

-8.50%

Implied Px: $72.62

EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE

-$4,248

On $50,000 Notional

[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for NFG & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>

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