ASB // Associated Banc-Corp

DES <GO> NYSE CIK 0000007789 ↗

Financials • Major Banks

$30.53 ▲ +0.53 (+1.77%)

MKT CAP: $5.67B • VOL: 2.86M

52W L $24 52W H $32

ALTMAN Z

0.45 RISK

PIOTROSKI

8 / 9

ASB // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE

PRIOR: RQD 59/100 [C-] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED AS OF 2026-11-01

ROARABLE C-

RQD CONFIDENCE

59 / 100 +0D

5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS

E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+

Roarable Hold — Cautious Neutral

01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL

Forensic Fundamentals

10 / 20

NEUTRAL

FCF +6.1% vs NI +200% • ROIC-WACC -6.1% • Z 0.45

02 OPRA GEX + SEC 13F

Whale & Options Flow

[LOCKED] FLAGGED

UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL

03 SEC FORM 4 (90D)

Insider Conviction

[LOCKED] FLAGGED

UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL

04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX

Macro Regime Fit

11 / 20

NEUTRAL

NEUTRAL • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00

05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT

Forensic 10-K Risk

16 / 20

STRONG

20 BASE - 4 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE

ALERT

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SIG <GO> CROSS-FEED TRIANGULATION // PROPRIETARY ANOMALY ENGINE (1 ACTIVE ON ASB)

STAGE 2 DETERMINISTIC Z-SCORE + STAGE 3 GEEK DESK BRIEF ALL MARKET ANOMALIES <SIG>

▼ BEARISH // F-RATED EARNINGS MIRAGE // ACCRUAL WATCHSIFTER 02 // ACCRUAL & RECEIVABLES FORENSICS

SEVERITY: 91/100 Z-SCORE: +3.18σ

ASB Accounting Gap: Net Income (+220%) Outpaced OCF (+6.1%) With +0% Working-Capital Build

CASH CONVERSION GAP

+213.9% (NI vs OCF)

RECEIVABLES / WC BLOAT

+0.0% VS REV

60D C-SUITE FORM 4 SALES

0 OPEN-MKT DUMPS

[GEEK DESK FORENSIC NOTE // SEC XBRL × FORM 4 CROSS-CHECK]

SEC EDGAR XBRL CompanyFacts10-K/10-Q Working Capital ScheduleSEC Form 4 Executive Sales

SEC EDGAR XBRL triangulation on Associated Banc-Corp (ASB) exposes a +213.9% Cash Conversion Gap as YoY Net Income growth (+220.0%) diverged from Operating Cash Flow growth (+6.1%). Non-cash current assets and receivables expanded +0.0% relative to top-line revenue growth. Monitor upcoming 10-Q cash realization closely for accrual mean-reversion.

ASB // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +7.60%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-10-30O $30.65H $30.67L $30.06C $30.30VOL 1.51M

RES: $34.19SUP: $27.15SMA50: $29.68SMA200: $28.67

ASB // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE

NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 46/100

BEAR 0

100 BULL

Associated Banc-Corp (ASB) exhibits 41.0% gross margins and 2.8% return on invested capital within Financials (Major Banks), balanced against a 26.8x enterprise multiple and 7.0% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)

01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 41.0% gross profitability converts into 36.5% operating margin and 2.8% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 2.8% // GM: 41.0%

02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +9.9% paired with 9.60% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +9.9% // FCF YLD: 9.60%

03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 0.45 and Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 0.45 // F-SCORE: 8/9

▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)

01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 11.9x trailing P/E (11.1x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 11.9x // EV/EBITDA: 26.8x

02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±7.0% implied move with a 0.84 put/call ratio around $30.00 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±7.0% // P/C: 0.84

03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Major Banks require continuous execution to defend 29.9% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 29.9% // D/E: 3.40x

KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 11.1x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.

MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.02).

FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>

FILER	SIDE	$ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>

UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>

STRIKE / EXP	TYPE	PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>

KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>

TRAILING P/E 11.9x

FORWARD P/E 11.1x

EV / EBITDA 26.8x

FCF YIELD 9.60%

GROSS MARGIN 41.0%

OPERATING MARGIN 36.5%

NET MARGIN 29.9%

ROIC % 2.8%

REV GROWTH YOY +9.9%

DILUTED EPS TTM $2.56

DEBT / EQUITY 3.40x

DIVIDEND YIELD 2.75%

RSI-14 MOMENTUM 60.3

5Y EQUITY BETA 1.02

FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>

MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.

FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // ASBPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE

01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO

02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE

HEADLINE STRESS SCORE

75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE

PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE

DFII10 // -0.61 r

Latest: 2.08%

EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE

-8.50%

Implied Px: $27.94

EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE

-$4,248

On $50,000 Notional

[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for ASB & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>

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