CRGY // Crescent Energy Company

DES <GO> NYSE CIK 0001866175 ↗

Energy • Oil & Gas Production

$13.75 ▲ +0.00 (0.00%)

MKT CAP: $4.54B • VOL: 4.76M

52W L $8 52W H $15

ALTMAN Z

0.78 RISK

PIOTROSKI

9 / 9

CRGY // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE

PRIOR: RQD 58/100 [D+] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED AS OF 2026-11-01

ROARABLE D+

RQD CONFIDENCE

58 / 100 +0D

5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS

E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+

Roarable Sell — Weak Fundamentals / Trim

01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL

Forensic Fundamentals

10 / 20

NEUTRAL

FCF +39.2% vs NI +200% • ROIC-WACC -6% • Z 0.78

02 OPRA GEX + SEC 13F

Whale & Options Flow

[LOCKED] FLAGGED

UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL

03 SEC FORM 4 (90D)

Insider Conviction

[LOCKED] FLAGGED

UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL

04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX

Macro Regime Fit

13 / 20

SOLID

TAILWIND • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00

05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT

Forensic 10-K Risk

13 / 20

SOLID

20 BASE - 7 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE

ALERT

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SIG <GO> CROSS-FEED TRIANGULATION // PROPRIETARY ANOMALY ENGINE (1 ACTIVE ON CRGY)

STAGE 2 DETERMINISTIC Z-SCORE + STAGE 3 GEEK DESK BRIEF ALL MARKET ANOMALIES <SIG>

▼ BEARISH // F-RATED EARNINGS MIRAGE // ACCRUAL WATCHSIFTER 02 // ACCRUAL & RECEIVABLES FORENSICS

SEVERITY: 94/100 Z-SCORE: +6.47σ

CRGY Accounting Gap: Net Income (+216%) Outpaced OCF (+37.4%) With +160.3% Working-Capital Build

CASH CONVERSION GAP

+178.6% (NI vs OCF)

RECEIVABLES / WC BLOAT

+160.3% VS REV

60D C-SUITE FORM 4 SALES

0 OPEN-MKT DUMPS

[GEEK DESK FORENSIC NOTE // SEC XBRL × FORM 4 CROSS-CHECK]

SEC EDGAR XBRL CompanyFacts10-K/10-Q Working Capital ScheduleSEC Form 4 Executive Sales

SEC EDGAR XBRL triangulation on Crescent Energy Company (CRGY) exposes a +178.6% Cash Conversion Gap as YoY Net Income growth (+216.0%) diverged from Operating Cash Flow growth (+37.4%). Non-cash current assets and receivables expanded +160.3% relative to top-line revenue growth. Monitor upcoming 10-Q cash realization closely for accrual mean-reversion.

CRGY // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +5.58%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $13.89H $14.24L $13.78C $14.20VOL 6.96M

RES: $16.11SUP: $12.90SMA50: $13.63SMA200: $12.01

CRGY // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE

NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 51/100

BEAR 0

100 BULL

Crescent Energy Company (CRGY) exhibits 41.0% gross margins and 1.7% return on invested capital within Energy (Oil & Gas Production), balanced against a 27.5x enterprise multiple and 7.3% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)

01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 41.0% gross profitability converts into 6.4% operating margin and 1.7% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 1.7% // GM: 41.0%

02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +22.1% paired with 22.00% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +22.1% // FCF YLD: 22.00%

03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 0.78 and Piotroski F-Score of 9/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 0.78 // F-SCORE: 9/9

▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)

01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 34.2x trailing P/E (28.7x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 34.2x // EV/EBITDA: 27.5x

02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±7.3% implied move with a 0.82 put/call ratio around $13.00 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±7.3% // P/C: 0.82

03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Oil & Gas Production require continuous execution to defend 3.7% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 3.7% // D/E: 1.07x

KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 28.7x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.

MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.11).

FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>

FILER	SIDE	$ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>

UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>

STRIKE / EXP	TYPE	PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>

KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>

TRAILING P/E 34.2x

FORWARD P/E 28.7x

EV / EBITDA 27.5x

FCF YIELD 22.00%

GROSS MARGIN 41.0%

OPERATING MARGIN 6.4%

NET MARGIN 3.7%

ROIC % 1.7%

REV GROWTH YOY +22.1%

DILUTED EPS TTM $0.40

DEBT / EQUITY 1.07x

DIVIDEND YIELD 2.53%

RSI-14 MOMENTUM 60.8

5Y EQUITY BETA 1.11

FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>

MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.

FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // CRGYPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE

01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO

02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE

HEADLINE STRESS SCORE

75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE

PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE

DFII10 // -0.61 r

Latest: 2.08%

EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE

-8.50%

Implied Px: $12.58

EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE

-$4,248

On $50,000 Notional

[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for CRGY & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

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