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WAY // Waystar Holding Corp.

DES <GO> NASDAQ CIK 0001990354 ↗
Technology • EDP Services
$28.21 ▼ -0.71 (-2.45%)
MKT CAP: $5.41B • VOL: 1.73M
WAY // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 64/100 [C] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE C
RQD CONFIDENCE
64 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Hold — Fair / Balanced Risk-Reward
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
11 / 20
NEUTRAL
FCF +104.4% vs NI +200% • ROIC-WACC -6.3% • Z 2.03
02 OPRA GEX + SEC 13F
Whale & Options Flow
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
03 SEC FORM 4 (90D)
Insider Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
16 / 20
STRONG
TAILWIND • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
15 / 20
SOLID
20 BASE - 5 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE
ALERT

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SIG <GO> CROSS-FEED TRIANGULATION // PROPRIETARY ANOMALY ENGINE (1 ACTIVE ON WAY)
ALL MARKET ANOMALIES <SIG>
▼ BEARISH // F-RATED EARNINGS MIRAGE // ACCRUAL WATCHSIFTER 02 // ACCRUAL & RECEIVABLES FORENSICS
SEVERITY: 83/100 Z-SCORE: +2.48σ

WAY Accounting Gap: Net Income (+220%) Outpaced OCF (+82.4%) With +14.3% Working-Capital Build

CASH CONVERSION GAP
+137.6% (NI vs OCF)
RECEIVABLES / WC BLOAT
+14.3% VS REV
60D C-SUITE FORM 4 SALES
0 OPEN-MKT DUMPS
[GEEK DESK FORENSIC NOTE // SEC XBRL × FORM 4 CROSS-CHECK]
SEC EDGAR XBRL CompanyFacts10-K/10-Q Working Capital ScheduleSEC Form 4 Executive Sales

SEC EDGAR XBRL triangulation on Waystar Holding Corp. (WAY) exposes a +137.6% Cash Conversion Gap as YoY Net Income growth (+220.0%) diverged from Operating Cash Flow growth (+82.4%). Non-cash current assets and receivables expanded +14.3% relative to top-line revenue growth. Monitor upcoming 10-Q cash realization closely for accrual mean-reversion.

WAY // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +30.96%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL
2026-10-30O $28.41H $28.58L $27.75C $28.00VOL 1.26M
RES: $29.63SUP: $26.44SMA50: $26.17SMA200: $23.89
$33.00$28.73$24.47$20.20$15.94RES $29.63SUP $26.44$28.002026-04-302026-06-152026-07-312026-09-162026-10-30
WAY // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 45/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Waystar Holding Corp. (WAY) exhibits 62.0% gross margins and 3.7% return on invested capital within Technology (EDP Services), balanced against a 23.4x enterprise multiple and 8.2% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 62.0% gross profitability converts into 22.7% operating margin and 3.7% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 3.7% // GM: 62.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +16.5% paired with 4.81% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +16.5% // FCF YLD: 4.81%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 2.03 and Piotroski F-Score of 9/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 2.03 // F-SCORE: 9/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 48.3x trailing P/E (40.6x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 48.3x // EV/EBITDA: 23.4x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±8.2% implied move with a 1.00 put/call ratio around $28.00 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±8.2% // P/C: 1.00
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in EDP Services require continuous execution to defend 10.2% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 10.2% // D/E: 0.38x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 40.6x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.39).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 48.3x
FORWARD P/E 40.6x
EV / EBITDA 23.4x
FCF YIELD 4.81%
GROSS MARGIN 62.0%
OPERATING MARGIN 22.7%
NET MARGIN 10.2%
ROIC % 3.7%
REV GROWTH YOY +16.5%
DILUTED EPS TTM $0.58
DEBT / EQUITY 0.38x
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 55.3
5Y EQUITY BETA 1.39
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // WAYPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $25.81
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for WAY & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.
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