UPST // Upstart Holdings Inc.

DES <GO> NASDAQ CIK 0001647639 ↗

Financials • Finance: Consumer Services

$24.84 ▲ +0.70 (+2.90%)

MKT CAP: $2.42B • VOL: 3.17M

52W L $22 52W H $52

ALTMAN Z

1.07 RISK

PIOTROSKI

5 / 9

UPST // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE

PRIOR: RQD 54/100 [D+] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED AS OF 2026-11-01

ROARABLE D+

RQD CONFIDENCE

54 / 100 +0D

5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS

E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+

Roarable Sell — Weak Fundamentals / Trim

01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL

Forensic Fundamentals

[LOCKED] FLAGGED

UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL

02 OPRA GEX + SEC 13F

Whale & Options Flow

10 / 20

NEUTRAL

NET GEX +0% • CALL SWEEP 52% • P/C 0.81

03 SEC FORM 4 (90D)

Insider Conviction

[LOCKED] FLAGGED

UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL

04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX

Macro Regime Fit

15 / 20

SOLID

TAILWIND • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00

05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT

Forensic 10-K Risk

13 / 20

SOLID

20 BASE - 7 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE

ALERT

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SIG <GO> CROSS-FEED TRIANGULATION // PROPRIETARY ANOMALY ENGINE (1 ACTIVE ON UPST)

STAGE 2 DETERMINISTIC Z-SCORE + STAGE 3 GEEK DESK BRIEF ALL MARKET ANOMALIES <SIG>

▼ BEARISH // F-RATED EARNINGS MIRAGE // ACCRUAL WATCHSIFTER 02 // ACCRUAL & RECEIVABLES FORENSICS

SEVERITY: 94/100 Z-SCORE: +7.33σ

UPST NI Up 141.7% vs OCF Down -120%: Cash Conversion Gap Hits +261.7%

CASH CONVERSION GAP

+261.7% (NI vs OCF)

RECEIVABLES / WC BLOAT

+136.0% VS REV

60D C-SUITE FORM 4 SALES

0 OPEN-MKT DUMPS

[GEEK DESK FORENSIC NOTE // SEC XBRL × FORM 4 CROSS-CHECK]

SEC EDGAR XBRL CompanyFacts10-K/10-Q Working Capital ScheduleSEC Form 4 Executive Sales

Upstart Holdings displays a severe accounting divergence as net income grew 141.7% while operating cash flow deteriorated by -120%, driving a cash conversion gap of +261.7%. Balance-sheet strain is further signaled by receivables/working capital bloat of +136.0% relative to revenue, yielding a forensic z-score of 7.33 across SEC EDGAR filings. Despite the lack of insider selling with $0 in 60-day Form 4 open-market dumps, the extreme accrual overhang indicates low earnings quality vulnerable to institutional mean reversion.

UPST // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -27.11%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $24.16H $24.38L $22.68C $23.02VOL 4.28M

RES: $26.33SUP: $20.97SMA50: $25.33SMA200: $29.88

UPST // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE

ACCUMULATE CONVICTION: 69/100

BEAR 0

100 BULL

Upstart Holdings Inc. (UPST) exhibits 41.0% gross margins and 3.2% return on invested capital within Financials (Finance: Consumer Services), balanced against a 62.4x enterprise multiple and 6.6% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)

01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 41.0% gross profitability converts into 4.1% operating margin and 3.2% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 3.2% // GM: 41.0%

02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +64.0% paired with -6.13% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +64.0% // FCF YLD: -6.13%

03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 1.07 and Piotroski F-Score of 5/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 1.07 // F-SCORE: 5/9

▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)

01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 45.1x trailing P/E (37.9x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 45.1x // EV/EBITDA: 62.4x

02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±6.6% implied move with a 0.81 put/call ratio around $24.00 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±6.6% // P/C: 0.81

03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Finance: Consumer Services require continuous execution to defend 5.1% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 5.1% // D/E: 1.14x

KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 37.9x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.

MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 0.92).

FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>

FILER	SIDE	$ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>

UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>

STRIKE / EXP	TYPE	PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>

KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>

TRAILING P/E 45.1x

FORWARD P/E 37.9x

EV / EBITDA 62.4x

FCF YIELD -6.13%

GROSS MARGIN 41.0%

OPERATING MARGIN 4.1%

NET MARGIN 5.1%

ROIC % 3.2%

REV GROWTH YOY +64.0%

DILUTED EPS TTM $0.55

DEBT / EQUITY 1.14x

DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%

RSI-14 MOMENTUM 43.1

5Y EQUITY BETA 0.92

FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>

MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.

FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // UPSTPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE

01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO

02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE

HEADLINE STRESS SCORE

75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE

PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE

DFII10 // -0.61 r

Latest: 2.08%

EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE

-8.50%

Implied Px: $22.73

EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE

-$4,248

On $50,000 Notional

[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for UPST & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

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