AIG // American International Group Inc. New

DES <GO> NYSE CIK 0000005272 ↗

Financials • Property-Casualty Insurers

$81.44 ▲ +1.56 (+1.95%)

MKT CAP: $42.58B • VOL: 2.55M

52W L $71 52W H $87

ALTMAN Z

0.94 RISK

PIOTROSKI

7 / 9

AIG // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE

PRIOR: RQD 61/100 [C-] (-1 PT) • UNCHANGED AS OF 2026-11-01

ROARABLE C-

RQD CONFIDENCE

60 / 100 -1D

5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS

E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+

Roarable Hold — Cautious Neutral

01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL

Forensic Fundamentals

[LOCKED] FLAGGED

UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL

02 OPRA GEX + SEC 13F

Whale & Options Flow

10 / 20

NEUTRAL

NET GEX +0% • CALL SWEEP 52% • P/C 0.62

03 SEC FORM 4 (90D)

Insider Conviction

[LOCKED] FLAGGED

UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL

04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX

Macro Regime Fit

13 / 20

SOLID

TAILWIND • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00

05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT

Forensic 10-K Risk

16 / 20

STRONG

20 BASE - 4 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE

ALERT

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SIG <GO> CROSS-FEED TRIANGULATION // PROPRIETARY ANOMALY ENGINE (1 ACTIVE ON AIG)

STAGE 2 DETERMINISTIC Z-SCORE + STAGE 3 GEEK DESK BRIEF ALL MARKET ANOMALIES <SIG>

▼ BEARISH // F-RATED EARNINGS MIRAGE // ACCRUAL WATCHSIFTER 02 // ACCRUAL & RECEIVABLES FORENSICS

SEVERITY: 92/100 Z-SCORE: +3.28σ

AIG Accounting Gap: Net Income (+220%) Outpaced OCF (+1.3%) With +1.7% Working-Capital Build

CASH CONVERSION GAP

+218.7% (NI vs OCF)

RECEIVABLES / WC BLOAT

+1.7% VS REV

60D C-SUITE FORM 4 SALES

0 OPEN-MKT DUMPS

[GEEK DESK FORENSIC NOTE // SEC XBRL × FORM 4 CROSS-CHECK]

SEC EDGAR XBRL CompanyFacts10-K/10-Q Working Capital ScheduleSEC Form 4 Executive Sales

SEC EDGAR XBRL triangulation on American International Group Inc. New (AIG) exposes a +218.7% Cash Conversion Gap as YoY Net Income growth (+220.0%) diverged from Operating Cash Flow growth (+1.3%). Non-cash current assets and receivables expanded +1.7% relative to top-line revenue growth. Monitor upcoming 10-Q cash realization closely for accrual mean-reversion.

AIG // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +9.49%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-10-30O $82.14H $82.50L $81.31C $81.90VOL 3.13M

RES: $83.27SUP: $70.39SMA50: $77.07SMA200: $76.81

AIG // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE

UNDERWEIGHT CONVICTION: 41/100

BEAR 0

100 BULL

American International Group Inc. New (AIG) exhibits 41.0% gross margins and 4.1% return on invested capital within Financials (Property-Casualty Insurers), balanced against a 15.3x enterprise multiple and 6.5% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)

01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 41.0% gross profitability converts into 14.1% operating margin and 4.1% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 4.1% // GM: 41.0%

02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of -1.7% paired with 4.95% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: -1.7% // FCF YLD: 4.95%

03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 0.94 and Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 0.94 // F-SCORE: 7/9

▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)

01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 13.8x trailing P/E (12.8x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 13.8x // EV/EBITDA: 15.3x

02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±6.5% implied move with a 0.62 put/call ratio around $80.00 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±6.5% // P/C: 0.62

03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Property-Casualty Insurers require continuous execution to defend 11.6% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 11.6% // D/E: 1.23x

KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 12.8x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.

MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 0.87).

FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>

FILER	SIDE	$ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>

UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>

STRIKE / EXP	TYPE	PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>

KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>

TRAILING P/E 13.8x

FORWARD P/E 12.8x

EV / EBITDA 15.3x

FCF YIELD 4.95%

GROSS MARGIN 41.0%

OPERATING MARGIN 14.1%

NET MARGIN 11.6%

ROIC % 4.1%

REV GROWTH YOY -1.7%

DILUTED EPS TTM $5.92

DEBT / EQUITY 1.23x

DIVIDEND YIELD 2.29%

RSI-14 MOMENTUM 63.9

5Y EQUITY BETA 0.87

FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>

MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.

FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // AIGPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE

01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO

02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE

HEADLINE STRESS SCORE

75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE

PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE

DFII10 // -0.61 r

Latest: 2.08%

EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE

-8.50%

Implied Px: $74.52

EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE

-$4,248

On $50,000 Notional

[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for AIG & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

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