Z // Zillow Group Inc.

DES <GO> NASDAQ CIK 0001617640 ↗

Consumer Discretionary • Business Services

$30.99 ▲ +0.22 (+0.72%)

MKT CAP: $6.97B • VOL: 3.87M

52W L $27 52W H $77

ALTMAN Z

5.50 SAFE

PIOTROSKI

9 / 9

Z // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE

PRIOR: RQD 61/100 [C-] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED AS OF 2026-11-01

ROARABLE C-

RQD CONFIDENCE

61 / 100 +0D

5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS

E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+

Roarable Hold — Cautious Neutral

01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL

Forensic Fundamentals

[LOCKED] FLAGGED

UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL

02 OPRA GEX + SEC 13F

Whale & Options Flow

10 / 20

NEUTRAL

NET GEX +0% • CALL SWEEP 52% • P/C 0.86

03 SEC FORM 4 (90D)

Insider Conviction

[LOCKED] FLAGGED

UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL

04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX

Macro Regime Fit

14 / 20

SOLID

TAILWIND • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00

05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT

Forensic 10-K Risk

16 / 20

STRONG

20 BASE - 4 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE

ALERT

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SIG <GO> CROSS-FEED TRIANGULATION // PROPRIETARY ANOMALY ENGINE (1 ACTIVE ON Z)

STAGE 2 DETERMINISTIC Z-SCORE + STAGE 3 GEEK DESK BRIEF ALL MARKET ANOMALIES <SIG>

▼ BEARISH // F-RATED EARNINGS MIRAGE // ACCRUAL WATCHSIFTER 02 // ACCRUAL & RECEIVABLES FORENSICS

SEVERITY: 79/100 Z-SCORE: +2.10σ

Z Accounting Gap: Net Income (+120.5%) Outpaced OCF (-14%) With +-7.4% Working-Capital Build

CASH CONVERSION GAP

+134.6% (NI vs OCF)

RECEIVABLES / WC BLOAT

-7.4% VS REV

60D C-SUITE FORM 4 SALES

0 OPEN-MKT DUMPS

[GEEK DESK FORENSIC NOTE // SEC XBRL × FORM 4 CROSS-CHECK]

SEC EDGAR XBRL CompanyFacts10-K/10-Q Working Capital ScheduleSEC Form 4 Executive Sales

SEC EDGAR XBRL triangulation on Zillow Group Inc. (Z) exposes a +134.6% Cash Conversion Gap as YoY Net Income growth (+120.5%) diverged from Operating Cash Flow growth (-14.0%). Non-cash current assets and receivables expanded -7.4% relative to top-line revenue growth. Monitor upcoming 10-Q cash realization closely for accrual mean-reversion.

Z // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -30.27%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $31.22H $31.52L $30.36C $30.96VOL 3.59M

RES: $34.15SUP: $24.95SMA50: $31.25SMA200: $38.93

Z // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE

UNDERWEIGHT CONVICTION: 28/100

BEAR 0

100 BULL

Zillow Group Inc. (Z) exhibits 74.1% gross margins and -0.6% return on invested capital within Consumer Discretionary (Business Services), balanced against a 185.0x enterprise multiple and 6.5% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)

01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 74.1% gross profitability converts into -1.3% operating margin and -0.6% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: -0.6% // GM: 74.1%

02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +15.5% paired with 3.37% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +15.5% // FCF YLD: 3.37%

03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 5.50 and Piotroski F-Score of 9/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 5.50 // F-SCORE: 9/9

▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)

01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 185.0x trailing P/E (140.0x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 185.0x // EV/EBITDA: —

02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±6.5% implied move with a 0.86 put/call ratio around $30.00 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±6.5% // P/C: 0.86

03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Business Services require continuous execution to defend 0.9% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 0.9% // D/E: 0.07x

KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 140.0x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.

MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 0.88).

FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>

FILER	SIDE	$ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>

UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>

STRIKE / EXP	TYPE	PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>

KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>

TRAILING P/E 185.0x

FORWARD P/E 140.0x

EV / EBITDA —

FCF YIELD 3.37%

GROSS MARGIN 74.1%

OPERATING MARGIN -1.3%

NET MARGIN 0.9%

ROIC % -0.6%

REV GROWTH YOY +15.5%

DILUTED EPS TTM $0.10

DEBT / EQUITY 0.07x

DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%

RSI-14 MOMENTUM 50.8

5Y EQUITY BETA 0.88

FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>

MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.

FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // ZPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE

01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO

02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE

HEADLINE STRESS SCORE

75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE

PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE

DFII10 // -0.61 r

Latest: 2.08%

EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE

-8.50%

Implied Px: $28.36

EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE

-$4,248

On $50,000 Notional

[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for Z & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

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