LPLA // LPL Financial Holdings Inc.

DES <GO> NASDAQ CIK 0001397911 ↗

Financials • Investment Bankers/Brokers/Service

$279.54 ▲ +10.35 (+3.85%)

MKT CAP: $22.01B • VOL: 2.74M

52W L $260 52W H $400

ALTMAN Z

2.73 GREY

PIOTROSKI

5 / 9

LPLA // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE

▼ DOWNGRADE // C- (RQD 59) -> D+ (RQD 58) AS OF 2026-11-01

ROARABLE D+

RQD CONFIDENCE

58 / 100 -1D

5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS

E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+

Roarable Sell — Weak Fundamentals / Trim

01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL

Forensic Fundamentals

[LOCKED] FLAGGED

UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL

02 OPRA GEX + SEC 13F

Whale & Options Flow

10 / 20

NEUTRAL

NET GEX +0% • CALL SWEEP 52% • P/C 0.61

03 SEC FORM 4 (90D)

Insider Conviction

[LOCKED] FLAGGED

UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL

04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX

Macro Regime Fit

15 / 20

SOLID

TAILWIND • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00

05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT

Forensic 10-K Risk

15 / 20

SOLID

20 BASE - 5 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE

ALERT

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SIG <GO> CROSS-FEED TRIANGULATION // PROPRIETARY ANOMALY ENGINE (1 ACTIVE ON LPLA)

STAGE 2 DETERMINISTIC Z-SCORE + STAGE 3 GEEK DESK BRIEF ALL MARKET ANOMALIES <SIG>

▼ BEARISH // F-RATED EARNINGS MIRAGE // ACCRUAL WATCHSIFTER 02 // ACCRUAL & RECEIVABLES FORENSICS

SEVERITY: 80/100 Z-SCORE: +2.17σ

LPLA Accounting Gap: Net Income (-18.5%) Outpaced OCF (-120%) With +9.7% Working-Capital Build

CASH CONVERSION GAP

+101.5% (NI vs OCF)

RECEIVABLES / WC BLOAT

+9.7% VS REV

60D C-SUITE FORM 4 SALES

0 OPEN-MKT DUMPS

[GEEK DESK FORENSIC NOTE // SEC XBRL × FORM 4 CROSS-CHECK]

SEC EDGAR XBRL CompanyFacts10-K/10-Q Working Capital ScheduleSEC Form 4 Executive Sales

SEC EDGAR XBRL triangulation on LPL Financial Holdings Inc. (LPLA) exposes a +101.5% Cash Conversion Gap as YoY Net Income growth (-18.5%) diverged from Operating Cash Flow growth (-120.0%). Non-cash current assets and receivables expanded +9.7% relative to top-line revenue growth. Monitor upcoming 10-Q cash realization closely for accrual mean-reversion.

LPLA // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -15.08%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $280.3H $286.6L $272.3C $283.7VOL 2.17M

RES: $342.6SUP: $268.5SMA50: $330.3SMA200: $322.5

LPLA // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE

ACCUMULATE CONVICTION: 63/100

BEAR 0

100 BULL

LPL Financial Holdings Inc. (LPLA) exhibits 41.0% gross margins and 8.5% return on invested capital within Financials (Investment Bankers/Brokers/Service), balanced against a 17.2x enterprise multiple and 7.3% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)

01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 41.0% gross profitability converts into 6.2% operating margin and 8.5% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 8.5% // GM: 41.0%

02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +37.2% paired with -4.46% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +37.2% // FCF YLD: -4.46%

03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 2.73 and Piotroski F-Score of 5/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 2.73 // F-SCORE: 5/9

▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)

01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 25.5x trailing P/E (21.4x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 25.5x // EV/EBITDA: 17.2x

02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±7.3% implied move with a 0.61 put/call ratio around $274.00 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±7.3% // P/C: 0.61

03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Investment Bankers/Brokers/Service require continuous execution to defend 5.1% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 5.1% // D/E: 1.03x

KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 21.4x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.

MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.11).

FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>

FILER	SIDE	$ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>

UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>

STRIKE / EXP	TYPE	PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>

KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>

TRAILING P/E 25.5x

FORWARD P/E 21.4x

EV / EBITDA 17.2x

FCF YIELD -4.46%

GROSS MARGIN 41.0%

OPERATING MARGIN 6.2%

NET MARGIN 5.1%

ROIC % 8.5%

REV GROWTH YOY +37.2%

DILUTED EPS TTM $10.96

DEBT / EQUITY 1.03x

DIVIDEND YIELD 0.43%

RSI-14 MOMENTUM 33.2

5Y EQUITY BETA 1.11

FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>

MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.

FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // LPLAPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE

01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO

02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE

HEADLINE STRESS SCORE

75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE

PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE

DFII10 // -0.61 r

Latest: 2.08%

EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE

-8.50%

Implied Px: $255.79

EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE

-$4,248

On $50,000 Notional

[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for LPLA & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

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