ARW // Arrow Electronics Inc.

DES <GO> NYSE CIK 0000007536 ↗

Technology • Electronic Components

$220.92 ▼ -2.03 (-0.91%)

MKT CAP: $11.25B • VOL: 291.8K

52W L $102 52W H $249

ALTMAN Z

2.23 GREY

PIOTROSKI

6 / 9

ARW // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE

PRIOR: RQD 53/100 [D+] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED AS OF 2026-11-01

ROARABLE D+

RQD CONFIDENCE

53 / 100 +0D

5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS

E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+

Roarable Sell — Weak Fundamentals / Trim

01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL

Forensic Fundamentals

[LOCKED] FLAGGED

UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL

02 OPRA GEX + SEC 13F

Whale & Options Flow

10 / 20

NEUTRAL

NET GEX +0% • CALL SWEEP 52% • P/C 0.83

03 SEC FORM 4 (90D)

Insider Conviction

[LOCKED] FLAGGED

UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL

04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX

Macro Regime Fit

13 / 20

SOLID

TAILWIND • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00

05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT

Forensic 10-K Risk

13 / 20

SOLID

20 BASE - 7 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE

ALERT

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SIG <GO> CROSS-FEED TRIANGULATION // PROPRIETARY ANOMALY ENGINE (1 ACTIVE ON ARW)

STAGE 2 DETERMINISTIC Z-SCORE + STAGE 3 GEEK DESK BRIEF ALL MARKET ANOMALIES <SIG>

▼ BEARISH // F-RATED EARNINGS MIRAGE // ACCRUAL WATCHSIFTER 02 // ACCRUAL & RECEIVABLES FORENSICS

SEVERITY: 91/100 Z-SCORE: +3.14σ

ARW Accounting Gap: Net Income (+45.7%) Outpaced OCF (-94.3%) With +28.7% Working-Capital Build

CASH CONVERSION GAP

+140.0% (NI vs OCF)

RECEIVABLES / WC BLOAT

+28.7% VS REV

60D C-SUITE FORM 4 SALES

0 OPEN-MKT DUMPS

[GEEK DESK FORENSIC NOTE // SEC XBRL × FORM 4 CROSS-CHECK]

SEC EDGAR XBRL CompanyFacts10-K/10-Q Working Capital ScheduleSEC Form 4 Executive Sales

SEC EDGAR XBRL triangulation on Arrow Electronics Inc. (ARW) exposes a +140.0% Cash Conversion Gap as YoY Net Income growth (+45.7%) diverged from Operating Cash Flow growth (-94.3%). Non-cash current assets and receivables expanded +28.7% relative to top-line revenue growth. Monitor upcoming 10-Q cash realization closely for accrual mean-reversion.

ARW // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +10.92%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT

2026-10-30O $215.3H $216.4L $200.4C $208.3VOL 665.0K

RES: $258.0SUP: $203.5SMA50: $219.1SMA200: $191.1

ARW // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE

NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 49/100

BEAR 0

100 BULL

Arrow Electronics Inc. (ARW) exhibits 11.2% gross margins and 6.9% return on invested capital within Technology (Electronic Components), balanced against a 15.4x enterprise multiple and 8.1% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)

01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 11.2% gross profitability converts into 2.7% operating margin and 6.9% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 6.9% // GM: 11.2%

02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +10.5% paired with -0.33% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +10.5% // FCF YLD: -0.33%

03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 2.23 and Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 2.23 // F-SCORE: 6/9

▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)

01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 19.7x trailing P/E (18.3x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 19.7x // EV/EBITDA: 15.4x

02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±8.1% implied move with a 0.83 put/call ratio around $217.00 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±8.1% // P/C: 0.83

03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Electronic Components require continuous execution to defend 1.9% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 1.9% // D/E: 0.47x

KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 18.3x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.

MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.34).

FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>

FILER	SIDE	$ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>

UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>

STRIKE / EXP	TYPE	PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>

KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>

TRAILING P/E 19.7x

FORWARD P/E 18.3x

EV / EBITDA 15.4x

FCF YIELD -0.33%

GROSS MARGIN 11.2%

OPERATING MARGIN 2.7%

NET MARGIN 1.9%

ROIC % 6.9%

REV GROWTH YOY +10.5%

DILUTED EPS TTM $11.22

DEBT / EQUITY 0.47x

DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%

RSI-14 MOMENTUM 40.3

5Y EQUITY BETA 1.34

FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>

MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.

FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // ARWPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE

01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO

02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE

HEADLINE STRESS SCORE

75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE

PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE

DFII10 // -0.61 r

Latest: 2.08%

EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE

-8.50%

Implied Px: $202.15

EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE

-$4,248

On $50,000 Notional

[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for ARW & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>

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