SIMO // Silicon Motion Technology Corporation

DES <GO> NASDAQ CIK 0001329394 ↗

Technology • Semiconductors

$227.75 ▲ +8.14 (+3.71%)

MKT CAP: $7.72B • VOL: 2.11M

52W L $80 52W H $355

ALTMAN Z

13.92 SAFE

PIOTROSKI

8 / 9

SIMO // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE

PRIOR: RQD 58/100 [D+] (-1 PT) • UNCHANGED AS OF 2026-11-01

ROARABLE D+

RQD CONFIDENCE

57 / 100 -1D

5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS

E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+

Roarable Sell — Weak Fundamentals / Trim

01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL

Forensic Fundamentals

[LOCKED] FLAGGED

UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL

02 OPRA GEX + SEC 13F

Whale & Options Flow

10 / 20

NEUTRAL

NET GEX +0% • CALL SWEEP 52% • P/C 0.64

03 SEC FORM 4 (90D)

Insider Conviction

[LOCKED] FLAGGED

UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL

04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX

Macro Regime Fit

14 / 20

SOLID

TAILWIND • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00

05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT

Forensic 10-K Risk

13 / 20

SOLID

20 BASE - 7 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE

ALERT

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SIG <GO> CROSS-FEED TRIANGULATION // PROPRIETARY ANOMALY ENGINE (1 ACTIVE ON SIMO)

STAGE 2 DETERMINISTIC Z-SCORE + STAGE 3 GEEK DESK BRIEF ALL MARKET ANOMALIES <SIG>

▼ BEARISH // F-RATED EARNINGS MIRAGE // ACCRUAL WATCHSIFTER 02 // ACCRUAL & RECEIVABLES FORENSICS

SEVERITY: 79/100 Z-SCORE: +2.12σ

SIMO Accounting Gap: Net Income (+37.4%) Outpaced OCF (-20.4%) With +32.7% Working-Capital Build

CASH CONVERSION GAP

+57.8% (NI vs OCF)

RECEIVABLES / WC BLOAT

+32.7% VS REV

60D C-SUITE FORM 4 SALES

0 OPEN-MKT DUMPS

[GEEK DESK FORENSIC NOTE // SEC XBRL × FORM 4 CROSS-CHECK]

SEC EDGAR XBRL CompanyFacts10-K/10-Q Working Capital ScheduleSEC Form 4 Executive Sales

SEC EDGAR XBRL triangulation on Silicon Motion Technology Corporation (SIMO) exposes a +57.8% Cash Conversion Gap as YoY Net Income growth (+37.4%) diverged from Operating Cash Flow growth (-20.4%). Non-cash current assets and receivables expanded +32.7% relative to top-line revenue growth. Monitor upcoming 10-Q cash realization closely for accrual mean-reversion.

SIMO // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -4.63%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $210.4H $222.7L $202.8C $208.7VOL 1.32M

RES: $280.4SUP: $177.5SMA50: $248.8SMA200: $214.7

SIMO // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE

UNDERWEIGHT CONVICTION: 40/100

BEAR 0

100 BULL

Silicon Motion Technology Corporation (SIMO) exhibits 48.3% gross margins and 9.3% return on invested capital within Technology (Semiconductors), balanced against a 55.0x enterprise multiple and 8.1% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)

01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 48.3% gross profitability converts into 10.5% operating margin and 9.3% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 9.3% // GM: 48.3%

02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +10.2% paired with 0.08% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +10.2% // FCF YLD: 0.08%

03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 13.92 and Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 13.92 // F-SCORE: 8/9

▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)

01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 63.0x trailing P/E (58.6x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 63.0x // EV/EBITDA: 55.0x

02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±8.1% implied move with a 0.64 put/call ratio around $223.00 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±8.1% // P/C: 0.64

03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Semiconductors require continuous execution to defend 13.8% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 13.8% // D/E: 0.20x

KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 58.6x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.

MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.34).

FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>

FILER	SIDE	$ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>

UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>

STRIKE / EXP	TYPE	PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>

KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>

TRAILING P/E 63.0x

FORWARD P/E 58.6x

EV / EBITDA 55.0x

FCF YIELD 0.08%

GROSS MARGIN 48.3%

OPERATING MARGIN 10.5%

NET MARGIN 13.8%

ROIC % 9.3%

REV GROWTH YOY +10.2%

DILUTED EPS TTM $3.62

DEBT / EQUITY 0.20x

DIVIDEND YIELD 0.87%

RSI-14 MOMENTUM 41.5

5Y EQUITY BETA 1.34

FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>

MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.

FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // SIMOPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE

01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO

02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE

HEADLINE STRESS SCORE

75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE

PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE

DFII10 // -0.61 r

Latest: 2.08%

EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE

-8.50%

Implied Px: $208.40

EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE

-$4,248

On $50,000 Notional

[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for SIMO & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

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