CVNA // Carvana Co.

DES <GO> NYSE CIK 0001690820 ↗

Consumer Discretionary • Retail-Auto Dealers and Gas Stations

$68.31 ▲ +9.26 (+15.68%)

MKT CAP: $75.36B • VOL: 23.23M

52W L $54 52W H $97

ALTMAN Z

7.49 SAFE

PIOTROSKI

6 / 9

CVNA // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE

PRIOR: RQD 70/100 [B-] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED AS OF 2026-11-01

ROARABLE B-

RQD CONFIDENCE

70 / 100 +0D

5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS

E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+

Roarable Buy — Sound Institutional Accumulation

01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL

Forensic Fundamentals

15 / 20

SOLID

FCF +7.5% vs NI +200% • ROIC-WACC +17.4% • Z 7.49

02 OPRA GEX + SEC 13F

Whale & Options Flow

[LOCKED] FLAGGED

UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL

03 SEC FORM 4 (90D)

Insider Conviction

[LOCKED] FLAGGED

UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL

04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX

Macro Regime Fit

16 / 20

STRONG

TAILWIND • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00

05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT

Forensic 10-K Risk

16 / 20

STRONG

20 BASE - 4 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE

ALERT

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SIG <GO> CROSS-FEED TRIANGULATION // PROPRIETARY ANOMALY ENGINE (1 ACTIVE ON CVNA)

STAGE 2 DETERMINISTIC Z-SCORE + STAGE 3 GEEK DESK BRIEF ALL MARKET ANOMALIES <SIG>

▼ BEARISH // F-RATED EARNINGS MIRAGE // ACCRUAL WATCHSIFTER 02 // ACCRUAL & RECEIVABLES FORENSICS

SEVERITY: 93/100 Z-SCORE: +3.38σ

CVNA Accounting Gap: Net Income (+220%) Outpaced OCF (+12.9%) With +-14.7% Working-Capital Build

CASH CONVERSION GAP

+207.1% (NI vs OCF)

RECEIVABLES / WC BLOAT

-14.7% VS REV

60D C-SUITE FORM 4 SALES

0 OPEN-MKT DUMPS

[GEEK DESK FORENSIC NOTE // SEC XBRL × FORM 4 CROSS-CHECK]

SEC EDGAR XBRL CompanyFacts10-K/10-Q Working Capital ScheduleSEC Form 4 Executive Sales

SEC EDGAR XBRL triangulation on Carvana Co. (CVNA) exposes a +207.1% Cash Conversion Gap as YoY Net Income growth (+220.0%) diverged from Operating Cash Flow growth (+12.9%). Non-cash current assets and receivables expanded -14.7% relative to top-line revenue growth. Monitor upcoming 10-Q cash realization closely for accrual mean-reversion.

CVNA // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -13.73%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-10-30O $67.93H $69.84L $66.43C $68.29VOL 16.97M

RES: $78.05SUP: $53.74SMA50: $65.79SMA200: $69.18

CVNA // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE

HIGH-CONVICTION LONG CONVICTION: 74/100

BEAR 0

100 BULL

Carvana Co. (CVNA) exhibits 20.6% gross margins and 24.6% return on invested capital within Consumer Discretionary (Retail-Auto Dealers and Gas Stations), balanced against a 38.8x enterprise multiple and 7.0% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)

01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 20.6% gross profitability converts into 9.3% operating margin and 24.6% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 24.6% // GM: 20.6%

02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +48.6% paired with 1.18% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +48.6% // FCF YLD: 1.18%

03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 7.49 and Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 7.49 // F-SCORE: 6/9

▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)

01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 53.6x trailing P/E (45.0x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 53.6x // EV/EBITDA: 38.8x

02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±7.0% implied move with a 0.38 put/call ratio around $67.00 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±7.0% // P/C: 0.38

03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Retail-Auto Dealers and Gas Stations require continuous execution to defend 6.9% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 6.9% // D/E: 1.40x

KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 45.0x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.

MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.04).

FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>

FILER	SIDE	$ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>

UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>

STRIKE / EXP	TYPE	PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>

KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>

TRAILING P/E 53.6x

FORWARD P/E 45.0x

EV / EBITDA 38.8x

FCF YIELD 1.18%

GROSS MARGIN 20.6%

OPERATING MARGIN 9.3%

NET MARGIN 6.9%

ROIC % 24.6%

REV GROWTH YOY +48.6%

DILUTED EPS TTM $1.28

DEBT / EQUITY 1.40x

DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%

RSI-14 MOMENTUM 62.6

5Y EQUITY BETA 1.04

FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>

MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.

FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // CVNAPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE

01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO

02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE

HEADLINE STRESS SCORE

75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE

PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE

DFII10 // -0.61 r

Latest: 2.08%

EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE

-8.50%

Implied Px: $62.51

EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE

-$4,248

On $50,000 Notional

[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for CVNA & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

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