ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

HTHT // H World Group Limited

DES <GO> NASDAQ CIK 0001483994 ↗
Consumer Discretionary • Hotels/Resorts
$46.89 ▲ +1.79 (+3.97%)
MKT CAP: $14.42B • VOL: 1.36M
HTHT // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 69/100 [C+] (-1 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE C+
RQD CONFIDENCE
68 / 100 -1D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Hold — Upper Neutral / Watch for Breakout
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
14 / 20
SOLID
FCF +17.3% vs NI +73.7% • ROIC-WACC +56.6% • Z 1.95
02 OPRA GEX + SEC 13F
Whale & Options Flow
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
03 SEC FORM 4 (90D)
Insider Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
17 / 20
STRONG
TAILWIND • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
15 / 20
SOLID
20 BASE - 5 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE
ALERT

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HTHT // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -7.69%▲ ASCENDING TRIANGLE
2026-10-30O $48.28H $48.52L $47.51C $47.67VOL 2.02M
SUP: $41.84SMA50: $44.89SMA200: $46.96
$53.12$49.52$45.93$42.34$38.74SUP $41.84$47.672026-04-302026-06-152026-07-312026-09-162026-10-30
HTHT // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
HIGH-CONVICTION LONG CONVICTION: 88/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

H World Group Limited (HTHT) exhibits 41.0% gross margins and 66.8% return on invested capital within Consumer Discretionary (Hotels/Resorts), balanced against a 11.7x enterprise multiple and 7.2% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 41.0% gross profitability converts into 26.9% operating margin and 66.8% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 66.8% // GM: 41.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +10.5% paired with 7.18% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +10.5% // FCF YLD: 7.18%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 1.95 and Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 1.95 // F-SCORE: 8/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 19.9x trailing P/E (18.5x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 19.9x // EV/EBITDA: 11.7x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±7.2% implied move with a 0.57 put/call ratio around $46.00 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±7.2% // P/C: 0.57
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Hotels/Resorts require continuous execution to defend 20.1% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 20.1% // D/E: 0.04x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 18.5x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.08).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 19.9x
FORWARD P/E 18.5x
EV / EBITDA 11.7x
FCF YIELD 7.18%
GROSS MARGIN 41.0%
OPERATING MARGIN 26.9%
NET MARGIN 20.1%
ROIC % 66.8%
REV GROWTH YOY +10.5%
DILUTED EPS TTM $2.36
DEBT / EQUITY 0.04x
DIVIDEND YIELD 3.88%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 63.0
5Y EQUITY BETA 1.08
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // HTHTPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $42.91
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for HTHT & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>