TPG // TPG Inc.

DES <GO> NASDAQ CIK 0001880661 ↗

Financials • Investment Managers

$47.94 ▲ +3.35 (+7.51%)

MKT CAP: $18.12B • VOL: 5.75M

52W L $37 52W H $70

ALTMAN Z

1.55 RISK

PIOTROSKI

9 / 9

TPG // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE

▼ DOWNGRADE // C+ (RQD 66) -> C (RQD 65) AS OF 2026-11-01

ROARABLE C

RQD CONFIDENCE

65 / 100 -1D

5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS

E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+

Roarable Hold — Fair / Balanced Risk-Reward

01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL

Forensic Fundamentals

14 / 20

SOLID

FCF +110.7% vs NI +200% • ROIC-WACC -6% • Z 1.55

02 OPRA GEX + SEC 13F

Whale & Options Flow

[LOCKED] FLAGGED

UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL

03 SEC FORM 4 (90D)

Insider Conviction

[LOCKED] FLAGGED

UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL

04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX

Macro Regime Fit

16 / 20

STRONG

TAILWIND • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00

05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT

Forensic 10-K Risk

13 / 20

SOLID

20 BASE - 7 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE

ALERT

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SIG <GO> CROSS-FEED TRIANGULATION // PROPRIETARY ANOMALY ENGINE (1 ACTIVE ON TPG)

STAGE 2 DETERMINISTIC Z-SCORE + STAGE 3 GEEK DESK BRIEF ALL MARKET ANOMALIES <SIG>

▼ BEARISH // F-RATED EARNINGS MIRAGE // ACCRUAL WATCHSIFTER 02 // ACCRUAL & RECEIVABLES FORENSICS

SEVERITY: 83/100 Z-SCORE: +2.43σ

TPG Accounting Gap: Net Income (+220%) Outpaced OCF (+94%) With +18.9% Working-Capital Build

CASH CONVERSION GAP

+126.0% (NI vs OCF)

RECEIVABLES / WC BLOAT

+18.9% VS REV

60D C-SUITE FORM 4 SALES

0 OPEN-MKT DUMPS

[GEEK DESK FORENSIC NOTE // SEC XBRL × FORM 4 CROSS-CHECK]

SEC EDGAR XBRL CompanyFacts10-K/10-Q Working Capital ScheduleSEC Form 4 Executive Sales

SEC EDGAR XBRL triangulation on TPG Inc. (TPG) exposes a +126.0% Cash Conversion Gap as YoY Net Income growth (+220.0%) diverged from Operating Cash Flow growth (+94.0%). Non-cash current assets and receivables expanded +18.9% relative to top-line revenue growth. Monitor upcoming 10-Q cash realization closely for accrual mean-reversion.

TPG // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +7.02%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $47.71H $47.88L $45.96C $46.68VOL 2.66M

RES: $62.14SUP: $41.67SMA50: $47.00SMA200: $45.67

TPG // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE

UNDERWEIGHT CONVICTION: 28/100

BEAR 0

100 BULL

TPG Inc. (TPG) exhibits 41.0% gross margins and 2.5% return on invested capital within Financials (Investment Managers), balanced against a 66.7x enterprise multiple and 6.7% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)

01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 41.0% gross profitability converts into 9.3% operating margin and 2.5% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 2.5% // GM: 41.0%

02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +16.1% paired with 5.10% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +16.1% // FCF YLD: 5.10%

03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 1.55 and Piotroski F-Score of 9/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 1.55 // F-SCORE: 9/9

▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)

01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 98.2x trailing P/E (82.5x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 98.2x // EV/EBITDA: 66.7x

02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±6.7% implied move with a 0.58 put/call ratio around $47.00 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±6.7% // P/C: 0.58

03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Investment Managers require continuous execution to defend 7.6% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 7.6% // D/E: 0.95x

KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 82.5x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.

MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 0.93).

FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>

FILER	SIDE	$ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>

UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>

STRIKE / EXP	TYPE	PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>

KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>

TRAILING P/E 98.2x

FORWARD P/E 82.5x

EV / EBITDA 66.7x

FCF YIELD 5.10%

GROSS MARGIN 41.0%

OPERATING MARGIN 9.3%

NET MARGIN 7.6%

ROIC % 2.5%

REV GROWTH YOY +16.1%

DILUTED EPS TTM $0.49

DEBT / EQUITY 0.95x

DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%

RSI-14 MOMENTUM 55.8

5Y EQUITY BETA 0.93

FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>

MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.

FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // TPGPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE

01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO

02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE

HEADLINE STRESS SCORE

75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE

PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE

DFII10 // -0.61 r

Latest: 2.08%

EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE

-8.50%

Implied Px: $43.87

EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE

-$4,248

On $50,000 Notional

[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for TPG & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

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