ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

CCL // Carnival Corporation Ltd.

DES <GO> NYSE CIK 0000815097 ↗
Consumer Discretionary • Marine Transportation
$28.84 ▲ +0.78 (+2.78%)
MKT CAP: $38.78B • VOL: 24.15M
CCL // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 67/100 [C+] (-1 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE C+
RQD CONFIDENCE
66 / 100 -1D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Hold — Upper Neutral / Watch for Breakout
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
14 / 20
SOLID
FCF +101% vs NI +44.1% • ROIC-WACC +3.7% • Z 1.66
02 OPRA GEX + SEC 13F
Whale & Options Flow
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
03 SEC FORM 4 (90D)
Insider Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
14 / 20
SOLID
TAILWIND • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
16 / 20
STRONG
20 BASE - 4 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE
ALERT

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CCL // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +8.75%▲ RESISTANCE BREAKOUT
2026-10-30O $28.59H $28.98L $28.26C $28.83VOL 20.80M
RES: $27.67SUP: $19.64SMA50: $24.85SMA200: $27.08
$32.31$29.37$26.42$23.48$20.54RES $27.67SUP $19.64$28.832026-04-302026-06-152026-07-312026-09-162026-10-30
CCL // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 49/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Carnival Corporation Ltd. (CCL) exhibits 41.0% gross margins and 10.3% return on invested capital within Consumer Discretionary (Marine Transportation), balanced against a 8.1x enterprise multiple and 6.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 41.0% gross profitability converts into 16.8% operating margin and 10.3% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 10.3% // GM: 41.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +6.4% paired with 6.72% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +6.4% // FCF YLD: 6.72%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 1.66 and Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 1.66 // F-SCORE: 7/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 14.1x trailing P/E (13.1x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 14.1x // EV/EBITDA: 8.1x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±6.8% implied move with a 0.64 put/call ratio around $28.00 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±6.8% // P/C: 0.64
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Marine Transportation require continuous execution to defend 10.4% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 10.4% // D/E: 1.96x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 13.1x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 0.98).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 14.1x
FORWARD P/E 13.1x
EV / EBITDA 8.1x
FCF YIELD 6.72%
GROSS MARGIN 41.0%
OPERATING MARGIN 16.8%
NET MARGIN 10.4%
ROIC % 10.3%
REV GROWTH YOY +6.4%
DILUTED EPS TTM $2.05
DEBT / EQUITY 1.96x
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 68.6
5Y EQUITY BETA 0.98
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // CCLPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $26.39
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for CCL & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>