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BBAI // BigBear.ai Inc.

DES <GO> NYSE CIK 0001836981 ↗
Technology • Computer Software: Prepackaged Software
$2.67 ▲ +0.21 (+8.54%)
MKT CAP: $1.29B • VOL: 27.25M
BBAI // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 56/100 [D+] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE D+
RQD CONFIDENCE
56 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Sell — Weak Fundamentals / Trim
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
02 OPRA GEX + SEC 13F
Whale & Options Flow
11 / 20
NEUTRAL
NET GEX +0% • CALL SWEEP 52% • P/C 0.43
03 SEC FORM 4 (90D)
Insider Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
17 / 20
STRONG
TAILWIND • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
13 / 20
SOLID
20 BASE - 7 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE
ALERT

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SIG <GO> CROSS-FEED TRIANGULATION // PROPRIETARY ANOMALY ENGINE (1 ACTIVE ON BBAI)
ALL MARKET ANOMALIES <SIG>
▼ BEARISH // F-RATED EARNINGS MIRAGE // ACCRUAL WATCHSIFTER 02 // ACCRUAL & RECEIVABLES FORENSICS
SEVERITY: 94/100 Z-SCORE: +5.57σ

BBAI Accrual Mirage: Cash Conversion Gap +10.7% as Receivables Bloat +219.3% vs Rev

CASH CONVERSION GAP
+10.7% (NI vs OCF)
RECEIVABLES / WC BLOAT
+219.3% VS REV
60D C-SUITE FORM 4 SALES
0 OPEN-MKT DUMPS
[GEEK DESK FORENSIC NOTE // SEC XBRL × FORM 4 CROSS-CHECK]
SEC EDGAR XBRL CompanyFacts10-K/10-Q Working Capital ScheduleSEC Form 4 Executive Sales

Multi-feed EDGAR XBRL forensic mapping exposes a severe cash conversion gap of +10.7% driven by net income growth of 0.7% diverging against a -10.1% contraction in operating cash flow. This operational decoupling is exacerbated by an extreme receivables and working capital bloat of +219.3% relative to revenue, signaling elevated risk of aggressive revenue recognition and uncollected billings at a z-score of 5.57. While 60-day C-suite Form 4 sales register 0 open-mkt dumps ($0 USD), the severe structural deterioration in cash generation warrants defensive institutional positioning.

BBAI // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -34.67%▲ RESISTANCE BREAKOUT
2026-10-30O $2.54H $2.65L $2.52C $2.60VOL 26.03M
RES: $2.45SUP: $1.89SMA50: $2.67SMA200: $3.61
$5.83$4.81$3.79$2.77$1.75RES $2.45SUP $1.89$2.602026-04-302026-06-152026-07-312026-09-162026-10-30
BBAI // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
UNDERWEIGHT CONVICTION: 28/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

BigBear.ai Inc. (BBAI) exhibits 22.3% gross margins and -27.5% return on invested capital within Technology (Computer Software: Prepackaged Software), balanced against a 24.0x enterprise multiple and 7.6% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 22.3% gross profitability converts into -60.0% operating margin and -27.5% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: -27.5% // GM: 22.3%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of -19.3% paired with -3.30% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: -19.3% // FCF YLD: -3.30%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 0.92 and Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 0.92 // F-SCORE: 4/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 24.0x trailing P/E (23.0x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 24.0x // EV/EBITDA: —
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±7.6% implied move with a 0.43 put/call ratio around $3.00 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±7.6% // P/C: 0.43
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Computer Software: Prepackaged Software require continuous execution to defend -60.0% net margins.

NET MARGIN: -60.0% // D/E: 0.15x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 23.0x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.20).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E —
FORWARD P/E 23.0x
EV / EBITDA —
FCF YIELD -3.30%
GROSS MARGIN 22.3%
OPERATING MARGIN -60.0%
NET MARGIN -60.0%
ROIC % -27.5%
REV GROWTH YOY -19.3%
DILUTED EPS TTM $-0.61
DEBT / EQUITY 0.15x
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 56.3
5Y EQUITY BETA 1.20
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // BBAIPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $2.44
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for BBAI & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.
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