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KRMN // Karman Holdings Inc.

DES <GO> NYSE CIK 0002040127 ↗
Industrials • Military/Government/Technical
$41.69 ▲ +3.71 (+9.77%)
MKT CAP: $5.53B • VOL: 3.31M
KRMN // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 62/100 [C] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE C
RQD CONFIDENCE
62 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Hold — Fair / Balanced Risk-Reward
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
02 OPRA GEX + SEC 13F
Whale & Options Flow
11 / 20
NEUTRAL
NET GEX +0% • CALL SWEEP 52% • P/C 0.38
03 SEC FORM 4 (90D)
Insider Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
15 / 20
SOLID
TAILWIND • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
16 / 20
STRONG
20 BASE - 4 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE
ALERT

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SIG <GO> CROSS-FEED TRIANGULATION // PROPRIETARY ANOMALY ENGINE (1 ACTIVE ON KRMN)
ALL MARKET ANOMALIES <SIG>
▼ BEARISH // F-RATED EARNINGS MIRAGE // ACCRUAL WATCHSIFTER 02 // ACCRUAL & RECEIVABLES FORENSICS
SEVERITY: 86/100 Z-SCORE: +2.70σ

KRMN Accounting Gap: Net Income (+36.7%) Outpaced OCF (-120%) With +-1.2% Working-Capital Build

CASH CONVERSION GAP
+156.7% (NI vs OCF)
RECEIVABLES / WC BLOAT
-1.2% VS REV
60D C-SUITE FORM 4 SALES
0 OPEN-MKT DUMPS
[GEEK DESK FORENSIC NOTE // SEC XBRL × FORM 4 CROSS-CHECK]
SEC EDGAR XBRL CompanyFacts10-K/10-Q Working Capital ScheduleSEC Form 4 Executive Sales

SEC EDGAR XBRL triangulation on Karman Holdings Inc. (KRMN) exposes a +156.7% Cash Conversion Gap as YoY Net Income growth (+36.7%) diverged from Operating Cash Flow growth (-120.0%). Non-cash current assets and receivables expanded -1.2% relative to top-line revenue growth. Monitor upcoming 10-Q cash realization closely for accrual mean-reversion.

KRMN // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -41.23%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-10-30O $40.58H $41.87L $38.75C $39.95VOL 2.29M
RES: $57.83SUP: $27.30SMA50: $37.07SMA200: $63.82
$92.86$75.64$58.43$41.21$24.00RES $57.83SUP $27.30$39.952026-04-302026-06-152026-07-312026-09-162026-10-30
KRMN // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
UNDERWEIGHT CONVICTION: 28/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Karman Holdings Inc. (KRMN) exhibits 40.3% gross margins and 8.8% return on invested capital within Industrials (Military/Government/Technical), balanced against a 64.2x enterprise multiple and 6.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 40.3% gross profitability converts into 15.5% operating margin and 8.8% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 8.8% // GM: 40.3%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +36.6% paired with -0.77% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +36.6% // FCF YLD: -0.77%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 5.47 and Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 5.47 // F-SCORE: 6/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 185.0x trailing P/E (140.0x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 185.0x // EV/EBITDA: 64.2x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±6.8% implied move with a 0.38 put/call ratio around $41.00 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±6.8% // P/C: 0.38
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Military/Government/Technical require continuous execution to defend 3.7% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 3.7% // D/E: 0.79x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 140.0x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 0.96).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 185.0x
FORWARD P/E 140.0x
EV / EBITDA 64.2x
FCF YIELD -0.77%
GROSS MARGIN 40.3%
OPERATING MARGIN 15.5%
NET MARGIN 3.7%
ROIC % 8.8%
REV GROWTH YOY +36.6%
DILUTED EPS TTM $0.13
DEBT / EQUITY 0.79x
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 61.2
5Y EQUITY BETA 0.96
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // KRMNPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $38.15
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for KRMN & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.
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