LI // Li Auto Inc.

DES <GO> NASDAQ CIK 0001791706 ↗

Consumer Discretionary • Auto Manufacturing

$11.14 ▼ -0.25 (-2.19%)

MKT CAP: $10.89B • VOL: 2.50M

52W L $11 52W H $21

ALTMAN Z

1.78 RISK

PIOTROSKI

2 / 9

LI // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE

PRIOR: RQD 54/100 [D+] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED AS OF 2026-11-01

ROARABLE D+

RQD CONFIDENCE

54 / 100 +0D

5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS

E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+

Roarable Sell — Weak Fundamentals / Trim

01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL

Forensic Fundamentals

[LOCKED] FLAGGED

UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL

02 OPRA GEX + SEC 13F

Whale & Options Flow

10 / 20

NEUTRAL

NET GEX +0% • CALL SWEEP 52% • P/C 1.01

03 SEC FORM 4 (90D)

Insider Conviction

[LOCKED] FLAGGED

UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL

04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX

Macro Regime Fit

17 / 20

STRONG

TAILWIND • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00

05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT

Forensic 10-K Risk

13 / 20

SOLID

20 BASE - 7 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE

ALERT

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SIG <GO> CROSS-FEED TRIANGULATION // PROPRIETARY ANOMALY ENGINE (1 ACTIVE ON LI)

STAGE 2 DETERMINISTIC Z-SCORE + STAGE 3 GEEK DESK BRIEF ALL MARKET ANOMALIES <SIG>

▼ BEARISH // F-RATED EARNINGS MIRAGE // ACCRUAL WATCHSIFTER 02 // ACCRUAL & RECEIVABLES FORENSICS

SEVERITY: 85/100 Z-SCORE: +2.67σ

LI Accounting Gap: Net Income (+0%) Outpaced OCF (-120%) With +20.1% Working-Capital Build

CASH CONVERSION GAP

+120.0% (NI vs OCF)

RECEIVABLES / WC BLOAT

+20.1% VS REV

60D C-SUITE FORM 4 SALES

0 OPEN-MKT DUMPS

[GEEK DESK FORENSIC NOTE // SEC XBRL × FORM 4 CROSS-CHECK]

SEC EDGAR XBRL CompanyFacts10-K/10-Q Working Capital ScheduleSEC Form 4 Executive Sales

SEC EDGAR XBRL triangulation on Li Auto Inc. (LI) exposes a +120.0% Cash Conversion Gap as YoY Net Income growth (+0.0%) diverged from Operating Cash Flow growth (-120.0%). Non-cash current assets and receivables expanded +20.1% relative to top-line revenue growth. Monitor upcoming 10-Q cash realization closely for accrual mean-reversion.

LI // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -38.14%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $11.02H $11.06L $10.92C $11.03VOL 1.88M

RES: $11.85SUP: $9.75SMA50: $11.66SMA200: $14.83

LI // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE

UNDERWEIGHT CONVICTION: 28/100

BEAR 0

100 BULL

Li Auto Inc. (LI) exhibits 18.7% gross margins and -2.1% return on invested capital within Consumer Discretionary (Auto Manufacturing), balanced against a 24.0x enterprise multiple and 6.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)

01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 18.7% gross profitability converts into -0.5% operating margin and -2.1% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: -2.1% // GM: 18.7%

02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of -18.8% paired with -17.95% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: -18.8% // FCF YLD: -17.95%

03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 1.78 and Piotroski F-Score of 2/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 1.78 // F-SCORE: 2/9

▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)

01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 24.0x trailing P/E (33.0x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 24.0x // EV/EBITDA: —

02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±6.8% implied move with a 1.01 put/call ratio around $11.00 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±6.8% // P/C: 1.01

03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Auto Manufacturing require continuous execution to defend -0.4% net margins.

NET MARGIN: -0.4% // D/E: 0.05x

KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 33.0x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.

MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 0.97).

FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>

FILER	SIDE	$ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>

UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>

STRIKE / EXP	TYPE	PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>

KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>

TRAILING P/E —

FORWARD P/E 33.0x

EV / EBITDA —

FCF YIELD -17.95%

GROSS MARGIN 18.7%

OPERATING MARGIN -0.5%

NET MARGIN -0.4%

ROIC % -2.1%

REV GROWTH YOY -18.8%

DILUTED EPS TTM $-0.06

DEBT / EQUITY 0.05x

DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%

RSI-14 MOMENTUM 42.7

5Y EQUITY BETA 0.97

FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>

MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.

FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // LIPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE

01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO

02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE

HEADLINE STRESS SCORE

75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE

PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE

DFII10 // -0.61 r

Latest: 2.08%

EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE

-8.50%

Implied Px: $10.19

EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE

-$4,248

On $50,000 Notional

[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for LI & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>

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