SHAK // Shake Shack Inc.

DES <GO> NYSE CIK 0001620533 ↗

Consumer Discretionary • Restaurants

$70.51 ▲ +3.29 (+4.89%)

MKT CAP: $3.02B • VOL: 1.48M

52W L $52 52W H $107

ALTMAN Z

2.39 GREY

PIOTROSKI

9 / 9

SHAK // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE

PRIOR: RQD 63/100 [C] (-1 PT) • UNCHANGED AS OF 2026-11-01

ROARABLE C

RQD CONFIDENCE

62 / 100 -1D

5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS

E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+

Roarable Hold — Fair / Balanced Risk-Reward

01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL

Forensic Fundamentals

11 / 20

NEUTRAL

FCF +58.5% vs NI +200% • ROIC-WACC -0.3% • Z 2.39

02 OPRA GEX + SEC 13F

Whale & Options Flow

[LOCKED] FLAGGED

UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL

03 SEC FORM 4 (90D)

Insider Conviction

[LOCKED] FLAGGED

UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL

04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX

Macro Regime Fit

16 / 20

STRONG

TAILWIND • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00

05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT

Forensic 10-K Risk

13 / 20

SOLID

20 BASE - 7 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE

ALERT

Why did SHAK's Whale & Options Flow & Insider Conviction sub-score just flash a warning? Enter your email to unlock the full 5-Pillar Rating Breakdown + get instant alerts whenever SHAK is Upgraded or Downgraded.

SIG <GO> CROSS-FEED TRIANGULATION // PROPRIETARY ANOMALY ENGINE (1 ACTIVE ON SHAK)

STAGE 2 DETERMINISTIC Z-SCORE + STAGE 3 GEEK DESK BRIEF ALL MARKET ANOMALIES <SIG>

▼ BEARISH // F-RATED EARNINGS MIRAGE // ACCRUAL WATCHSIFTER 02 // ACCRUAL & RECEIVABLES FORENSICS

SEVERITY: 94/100 Z-SCORE: +3.62σ

SHAK Accounting Gap: Net Income (+220%) Outpaced OCF (+29.9%) With +32.5% Working-Capital Build

CASH CONVERSION GAP

+190.1% (NI vs OCF)

RECEIVABLES / WC BLOAT

+32.5% VS REV

60D C-SUITE FORM 4 SALES

0 OPEN-MKT DUMPS

[GEEK DESK FORENSIC NOTE // SEC XBRL × FORM 4 CROSS-CHECK]

SEC EDGAR XBRL CompanyFacts10-K/10-Q Working Capital ScheduleSEC Form 4 Executive Sales

SEC EDGAR XBRL triangulation on Shake Shack Inc. (SHAK) exposes a +190.1% Cash Conversion Gap as YoY Net Income growth (+220.0%) diverged from Operating Cash Flow growth (+29.9%). Non-cash current assets and receivables expanded +32.5% relative to top-line revenue growth. Monitor upcoming 10-Q cash realization closely for accrual mean-reversion.

SHAK // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -31.21%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE

2026-10-30O $71.12H $71.67L $69.18C $70.48VOL 955.0K

RES: $72.19SUP: $56.05SMA50: $65.28SMA200: $75.04

SHAK // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE

UNDERWEIGHT CONVICTION: 42/100

BEAR 0

100 BULL

Shake Shack Inc. (SHAK) exhibits 41.0% gross margins and 6.8% return on invested capital within Consumer Discretionary (Restaurants), balanced against a 15.8x enterprise multiple and 6.5% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)

01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 41.0% gross profitability converts into 4.3% operating margin and 6.8% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 6.8% // GM: 41.0%

02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +15.4% paired with 1.87% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +15.4% // FCF YLD: 1.87%

03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 2.39 and Piotroski F-Score of 9/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 2.39 // F-SCORE: 9/9

▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)

01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 60.7x trailing P/E (51.0x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 60.7x // EV/EBITDA: 15.8x

02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±6.5% implied move with a 0.56 put/call ratio around $69.00 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±6.5% // P/C: 0.56

03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Restaurants require continuous execution to defend 3.4% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 3.4% // D/E: 1.07x

KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 51.0x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.

MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 0.87).

FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>

FILER	SIDE	$ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>

UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>

STRIKE / EXP	TYPE	PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>

KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>

TRAILING P/E 60.7x

FORWARD P/E 51.0x

EV / EBITDA 15.8x

FCF YIELD 1.87%

GROSS MARGIN 41.0%

OPERATING MARGIN 4.3%

NET MARGIN 3.4%

ROIC % 6.8%

REV GROWTH YOY +15.4%

DILUTED EPS TTM $1.16

DEBT / EQUITY 1.07x

DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%

RSI-14 MOMENTUM 60.1

5Y EQUITY BETA 0.87

FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>

MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.

FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // SHAKPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE

01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO

02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE

HEADLINE STRESS SCORE

75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE

PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE

DFII10 // -0.61 r

Latest: 2.08%

EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE

-8.50%

Implied Px: $64.52

EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE

-$4,248

On $50,000 Notional

[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for SHAK & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

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