ENPH // Enphase Energy Inc.

DES <GO> NASDAQ CIK 0001463101 ↗

Technology • Semiconductors

$25.86 ▲ +0.87 (+3.48%)

MKT CAP: $3.42B • VOL: 10.14M

52W L $24 52W H $74

ALTMAN Z

1.79 RISK

PIOTROSKI

8 / 9

ENPH // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE

PRIOR: RQD 61/100 [C-] (-1 PT) • UNCHANGED AS OF 2026-11-01

ROARABLE C-

RQD CONFIDENCE

60 / 100 -1D

5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS

E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+

Roarable Hold — Cautious Neutral

01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL

Forensic Fundamentals

[LOCKED] FLAGGED

UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL

02 OPRA GEX + SEC 13F

Whale & Options Flow

10 / 20

NEUTRAL

NET GEX +0% • CALL SWEEP 52% • P/C 0.58

03 SEC FORM 4 (90D)

Insider Conviction

[LOCKED] FLAGGED

UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL

04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX

Macro Regime Fit

16 / 20

STRONG

TAILWIND • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00

05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT

Forensic 10-K Risk

16 / 20

STRONG

20 BASE - 4 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE

ALERT

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SIG <GO> CROSS-FEED TRIANGULATION // PROPRIETARY ANOMALY ENGINE (1 ACTIVE ON ENPH)

STAGE 2 DETERMINISTIC Z-SCORE + STAGE 3 GEEK DESK BRIEF ALL MARKET ANOMALIES <SIG>

▼ BEARISH // F-RATED EARNINGS MIRAGE // ACCRUAL WATCHSIFTER 02 // ACCRUAL & RECEIVABLES FORENSICS

SEVERITY: 83/100 Z-SCORE: +2.48σ

ENPH Accounting Gap: Net Income (+67.7%) Outpaced OCF (-73.4%) With +-1.8% Working-Capital Build

CASH CONVERSION GAP

+141.1% (NI vs OCF)

RECEIVABLES / WC BLOAT

-1.8% VS REV

60D C-SUITE FORM 4 SALES

0 OPEN-MKT DUMPS

[GEEK DESK FORENSIC NOTE // SEC XBRL × FORM 4 CROSS-CHECK]

SEC EDGAR XBRL CompanyFacts10-K/10-Q Working Capital ScheduleSEC Form 4 Executive Sales

SEC EDGAR XBRL triangulation on Enphase Energy Inc. (ENPH) exposes a +141.1% Cash Conversion Gap as YoY Net Income growth (+67.7%) diverged from Operating Cash Flow growth (-73.4%). Non-cash current assets and receivables expanded -1.8% relative to top-line revenue growth. Monitor upcoming 10-Q cash realization closely for accrual mean-reversion.

ENPH // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -22.18%▲ RESISTANCE BREAKOUT

2026-10-30O $25.44H $25.69L $24.66C $25.65VOL 7.34M

RES: $21.46SUP: $23.29SMA50: $33.63SMA200: $40.93

ENPH // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE

NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 51/100

BEAR 0

100 BULL

Enphase Energy Inc. (ENPH) exhibits 46.6% gross margins and 10.5% return on invested capital within Technology (Semiconductors), balanced against a 18.3x enterprise multiple and 7.6% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)

01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 46.6% gross profitability converts into 10.7% operating margin and 10.5% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 10.5% // GM: 46.6%

02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +10.7% paired with 2.80% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +10.7% // FCF YLD: 2.80%

03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 1.79 and Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 1.79 // F-SCORE: 8/9

▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)

01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 19.9x trailing P/E (18.5x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 19.9x // EV/EBITDA: 18.3x

02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±7.6% implied move with a 0.58 put/call ratio around $25.00 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±7.6% // P/C: 0.58

03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Semiconductors require continuous execution to defend 11.7% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 11.7% // D/E: 0.53x

KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 18.5x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.

MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.21).

FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>

FILER	SIDE	$ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>

UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>

STRIKE / EXP	TYPE	PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>

KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>

TRAILING P/E 19.9x

FORWARD P/E 18.5x

EV / EBITDA 18.3x

FCF YIELD 2.80%

GROSS MARGIN 46.6%

OPERATING MARGIN 10.7%

NET MARGIN 11.7%

ROIC % 10.5%

REV GROWTH YOY +10.7%

DILUTED EPS TTM $1.30

DEBT / EQUITY 0.53x

DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%

RSI-14 MOMENTUM 28.9

5Y EQUITY BETA 1.21

FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>

MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.

FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // ENPHPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE

01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO

02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE

HEADLINE STRESS SCORE

75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE

PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE

DFII10 // -0.61 r

Latest: 2.08%

EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE

-8.50%

Implied Px: $23.66

EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE

-$4,248

On $50,000 Notional

[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for ENPH & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

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