ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
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DOW // Dow Inc. Common Stock

DES <GO> NYSE CIK 0001751788 ↗
Materials • Major Chemicals
$33.62 ▼ -0.51 (-1.49%)
MKT CAP: $24.34B • VOL: 7.36M
DOW // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 59/100 [C-] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE C-
RQD CONFIDENCE
59 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Hold — Cautious Neutral
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
02 OPRA GEX + SEC 13F
Whale & Options Flow
10 / 20
NEUTRAL
NET GEX +0% • CALL SWEEP 52% • P/C 0.93
03 SEC FORM 4 (90D)
Insider Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
16 / 20
STRONG
TAILWIND • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
16 / 20
STRONG
20 BASE - 4 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE
ALERT

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DOW // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -14.30%▲ RESISTANCE BREAKOUT
2026-10-30O $33.75H $34.85L $33.63C $34.70VOL 11.05M
RES: $30.65SUP: $23.97SMA50: $29.90SMA200: $32.63
$42.51$38.20$33.89$29.57$25.26RES $30.65SUP $23.97$34.702026-04-302026-06-152026-07-312026-09-162026-10-30
DOW // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
UNDERWEIGHT CONVICTION: 37/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Dow Inc. Common Stock (DOW) exhibits 6.3% gross margins and 2.8% return on invested capital within Materials (Major Chemicals), balanced against a 13.5x enterprise multiple and 6.6% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 6.3% gross profitability converts into 2.2% operating margin and 2.8% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 2.8% // GM: 6.3%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of -7.0% paired with -3.15% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: -7.0% // FCF YLD: -3.15%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 1.83 and Piotroski F-Score of 5/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 1.83 // F-SCORE: 5/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 36.2x trailing P/E (33.7x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 36.2x // EV/EBITDA: 13.5x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±6.6% implied move with a 0.93 put/call ratio around $33.00 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±6.6% // P/C: 0.93
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Major Chemicals require continuous execution to defend 1.7% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 1.7% // D/E: 0.74x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 33.7x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 0.92).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 36.2x
FORWARD P/E 33.7x
EV / EBITDA 13.5x
FCF YIELD -3.15%
GROSS MARGIN 6.3%
OPERATING MARGIN 2.2%
NET MARGIN 1.7%
ROIC % 2.8%
REV GROWTH YOY -7.0%
DILUTED EPS TTM $0.93
DEBT / EQUITY 0.74x
DIVIDEND YIELD 6.12%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 75.6
5Y EQUITY BETA 0.92
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // DOWPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $30.76
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>