TCOM // Trip.com Group Limited

DES <GO> NASDAQ CIK 0001269238 ↗

Consumer Discretionary • Business Services

$38.56 ▼ -0.01 (-0.03%)

MKT CAP: $24.28B • VOL: 1.73M

52W L $38 52W H $79

ALTMAN Z

2.05 GREY

PIOTROSKI

8 / 9

TCOM // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE

PRIOR: RQD 60/100 [C-] (-1 PT) • UNCHANGED AS OF 2026-11-01

ROARABLE C-

RQD CONFIDENCE

59 / 100 -1D

5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS

E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+

Roarable Hold — Cautious Neutral

01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL

Forensic Fundamentals

[LOCKED] FLAGGED

UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL

02 OPRA GEX + SEC 13F

Whale & Options Flow

10 / 20

NEUTRAL

NET GEX +0% • CALL SWEEP 52% • P/C 0.70

03 SEC FORM 4 (90D)

Insider Conviction

[LOCKED] FLAGGED

UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL

04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX

Macro Regime Fit

17 / 20

STRONG

TAILWIND • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00

05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT

Forensic 10-K Risk

15 / 20

SOLID

20 BASE - 5 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE

ALERT

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SIG <GO> CROSS-FEED TRIANGULATION // PROPRIETARY ANOMALY ENGINE (1 ACTIVE ON TCOM)

STAGE 2 DETERMINISTIC Z-SCORE + STAGE 3 GEEK DESK BRIEF ALL MARKET ANOMALIES <SIG>

▼ BEARISH // F-RATED EARNINGS MIRAGE // ACCRUAL WATCHSIFTER 02 // ACCRUAL & RECEIVABLES FORENSICS

SEVERITY: 84/100 Z-SCORE: +2.55σ

TCOM Accounting Gap: Net Income (+103.7%) Outpaced OCF (-23.5%) With +10.9% Working-Capital Build

CASH CONVERSION GAP

+127.2% (NI vs OCF)

RECEIVABLES / WC BLOAT

+10.9% VS REV

60D C-SUITE FORM 4 SALES

0 OPEN-MKT DUMPS

[GEEK DESK FORENSIC NOTE // SEC XBRL × FORM 4 CROSS-CHECK]

SEC EDGAR XBRL CompanyFacts10-K/10-Q Working Capital ScheduleSEC Form 4 Executive Sales

SEC EDGAR XBRL triangulation on Trip.com Group Limited (TCOM) exposes a +127.2% Cash Conversion Gap as YoY Net Income growth (+103.7%) diverged from Operating Cash Flow growth (-23.5%). Non-cash current assets and receivables expanded +10.9% relative to top-line revenue growth. Monitor upcoming 10-Q cash realization closely for accrual mean-reversion.

TCOM // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -26.97%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-10-30O $39.50H $40.04L $39.47C $39.59VOL 3.71M

RES: $44.69SUP: $37.48SMA50: $40.48SMA200: $47.88

TCOM // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE

NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 56/100

BEAR 0

100 BULL

Trip.com Group Limited (TCOM) exhibits 80.6% gross margins and 8.8% return on invested capital within Consumer Discretionary (Business Services), balanced against a 8.6x enterprise multiple and 7.3% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)

01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 80.6% gross profitability converts into 25.3% operating margin and 8.8% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 8.8% // GM: 80.6%

02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +22.2% paired with 8.01% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +22.2% // FCF YLD: 8.01%

03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 2.05 and Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 2.05 // F-SCORE: 8/9

▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)

01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 5.1x trailing P/E (4.3x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 5.1x // EV/EBITDA: 8.6x

02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±7.3% implied move with a 0.70 put/call ratio around $38.00 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±7.3% // P/C: 0.70

03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Business Services require continuous execution to defend 53.4% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 53.4% // D/E: 0.07x

KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 4.3x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.

MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.11).

FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>

FILER	SIDE	$ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>

UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>

STRIKE / EXP	TYPE	PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>

KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>

TRAILING P/E 5.1x

FORWARD P/E 4.3x

EV / EBITDA 8.6x

FCF YIELD 8.01%

GROSS MARGIN 80.6%

OPERATING MARGIN 25.3%

NET MARGIN 53.4%

ROIC % 8.8%

REV GROWTH YOY +22.2%

DILUTED EPS TTM $7.56

DEBT / EQUITY 0.07x

DIVIDEND YIELD 0.84%

RSI-14 MOMENTUM 49.9

5Y EQUITY BETA 1.11

FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>

MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.

FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // TCOMPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE

01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO

02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE

HEADLINE STRESS SCORE

75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE

PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE

DFII10 // -0.61 r

Latest: 2.08%

EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE

-8.50%

Implied Px: $35.28

EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE

-$4,248

On $50,000 Notional

[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for TCOM & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>

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