PEGA // Pegasystems Inc.

DES <GO> NASDAQ CIK 0001013857 ↗

Technology • EDP Services

$34.11 ▼ -1.26 (-3.56%)

MKT CAP: $5.58B • VOL: 2.02M

52W L $25 52W H $64

ALTMAN Z

6.14 SAFE

PIOTROSKI

9 / 9

PEGA // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE

PRIOR: RQD 73/100 [B] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED AS OF 2026-11-01

ROARABLE B

RQD CONFIDENCE

73 / 100 +0D

5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS

E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+

Roarable Buy — Good Risk/Reward

01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL

Forensic Fundamentals

19 / 20

STRONG

FCF +45.1% vs NI +200% • ROIC-WACC +13.4% • Z 6.14

02 OPRA GEX + SEC 13F

Whale & Options Flow

[LOCKED] FLAGGED

UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL

03 SEC FORM 4 (90D)

Insider Conviction

[LOCKED] FLAGGED

UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL

04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX

Macro Regime Fit

16 / 20

STRONG

TAILWIND • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00

05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT

Forensic 10-K Risk

16 / 20

STRONG

20 BASE - 4 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE

ALERT

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SIG <GO> CROSS-FEED TRIANGULATION // PROPRIETARY ANOMALY ENGINE (1 ACTIVE ON PEGA)

STAGE 2 DETERMINISTIC Z-SCORE + STAGE 3 GEEK DESK BRIEF ALL MARKET ANOMALIES <SIG>

▼ BEARISH // F-RATED EARNINGS MIRAGE // ACCRUAL WATCHSIFTER 02 // ACCRUAL & RECEIVABLES FORENSICS

SEVERITY: 85/100 Z-SCORE: +2.63σ

PEGA Accounting Gap: Net Income (+220%) Outpaced OCF (+46.1%) With +-39.8% Working-Capital Build

CASH CONVERSION GAP

+173.9% (NI vs OCF)

RECEIVABLES / WC BLOAT

-39.8% VS REV

60D C-SUITE FORM 4 SALES

0 OPEN-MKT DUMPS

[GEEK DESK FORENSIC NOTE // SEC XBRL × FORM 4 CROSS-CHECK]

SEC EDGAR XBRL CompanyFacts10-K/10-Q Working Capital ScheduleSEC Form 4 Executive Sales

SEC EDGAR XBRL triangulation on Pegasystems Inc. (PEGA) exposes a +173.9% Cash Conversion Gap as YoY Net Income growth (+220.0%) diverged from Operating Cash Flow growth (+46.1%). Non-cash current assets and receivables expanded -39.8% relative to top-line revenue growth. Monitor upcoming 10-Q cash realization closely for accrual mean-reversion.

PEGA // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -7.17%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT

2026-10-30O $34.27H $34.59L $33.57C $33.93VOL 1.52M

RES: $37.15SUP: $32.63SMA50: $35.29SMA200: $37.08

PEGA // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE

ACCUMULATE CONVICTION: 63/100

BEAR 0

100 BULL

Pegasystems Inc. (PEGA) exhibits 75.9% gross margins and 22.4% return on invested capital within Technology (EDP Services), balanced against a 20.8x enterprise multiple and 7.5% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)

01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 75.9% gross profitability converts into 15.1% operating margin and 22.4% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 22.4% // GM: 75.9%

02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +16.6% paired with 8.79% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +16.6% // FCF YLD: 8.79%

03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 6.14 and Piotroski F-Score of 9/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 6.14 // F-SCORE: 9/9

▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)

01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 14.2x trailing P/E (11.9x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 14.2x // EV/EBITDA: 20.8x

02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±7.5% implied move with a 0.94 put/call ratio around $33.00 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±7.5% // P/C: 0.94

03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in EDP Services require continuous execution to defend 22.5% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 22.5% // D/E: 0.45x

KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 11.9x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.

MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.17).

FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>

FILER	SIDE	$ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>

UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>

STRIKE / EXP	TYPE	PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>

KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>

TRAILING P/E 14.2x

FORWARD P/E 11.9x

EV / EBITDA 20.8x

FCF YIELD 8.79%

GROSS MARGIN 75.9%

OPERATING MARGIN 15.1%

NET MARGIN 22.5%

ROIC % 22.4%

REV GROWTH YOY +16.6%

DILUTED EPS TTM $2.40

DEBT / EQUITY 0.45x

DIVIDEND YIELD 0.28%

RSI-14 MOMENTUM 44.2

5Y EQUITY BETA 1.17

FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>

MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.

FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // PEGAPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE

01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO

02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE

HEADLINE STRESS SCORE

75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE

PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE

DFII10 // -0.61 r

Latest: 2.08%

EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE

-8.50%

Implied Px: $31.21

EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE

-$4,248

On $50,000 Notional

[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for PEGA & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

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